Monday 11/05/01 at 2:00 pm. I didn't look real close but I don't think any locations in South Florida saw hurricane force winds with Michelle, not even gusts. We have Hurricane Noel way out in the north Atlantic. Interesting, the NHC couldn't call Barry or Gabrielle a hurricane as they struck Florida but they can call a hybrid or even maybe an extra-tropical system in the middle of nowhere a hurricane, go figure!
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Published Sunday 11/04/01 at 10:00 am. Hurricane Michelle continues on a NE course and it's possible that no location in south Florida will see sustained hurricane force wind. The Florida Keys will likely see hurricane force gusts.
The GFDL model needs to be flushed down the toilet. Yes it did best at forecasting Michelle's intensity but everything else was off by a millions miles.
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Published Sunday 11/04/01 at 2:00 am. Hurricane Michelle has made her turn to the NE, hooray for Florida but Cuba will be hit hard!
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Published Saturday 11/03/01 at 11:00 pm. Latest track heading is NNE or 15 degrees. I don't know if this is just another eye wall wobble or the beginning of an eventual turn to the N.E. If this is the beginning of the N.E. turn then only the Florida Keys would see a period of hurricane conditions and cat 1 only. Michelle's center seems to be undergoing a reorganization? with less deep convection around the center at this moment. I don't know if this the beginning of a weakening cycle due to cold water upwelling or just a pulsing which is normal. If it's just a pulse then 140 mph sustained winds are still possible. Boy I don't really know much for sure tonight do I?!
Virtually all the models, save the GFDL say a NE turn and south Florida is spared. Why my reluctance to bite on the large preponderance of model data? Experience!!! Yes some of us still do synoptic analysis and look upstream or out the window so to speak, the old fashioned way. He who lives by the model dies by the model. I'll watch for a NE "TREND" in it's track via satellite photo's, during the next 3 hours.
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Published Saturday 11/03/01 at 10:00 am. "Holy Ship" Batman!!! As we educated back on 10/30/01, Michelle has reached category 4 status with sustained winds of 135 mph!!! She may well increase to 140-145 mph, as she is basically stationary at the latest advisory. Where is she going? Well the jury is still out, with no appreciable model track changes since last night and therefore no need to do a big rehash. However, there is a small trend among some models to bring her further north and west with each successive run. Interesting though that the GFDL arf! model has been the only model to nail Michelle's intensity BUT it also puts Michelle into Ft. Myers and we don't even want to think about that idea!
The island of Cuba, especially west of Havana may be raked with an unprecedented category 4 catastrophe, with a weakening back to category 2 due to terrain interaction and nearing an environment of increasing wind shear to it's north. At this moment I will say that the Florida Keys and extreme southern Florida will probably experience at least a period of tropical storm force wind but a worse case scenario would be a category 2 storm raking the Miami metro area.
I have been collaborating via email with premier tropical storm forecaster and Meteorologist Joe Bastardi of Accu Weather. He like I felt that Michelle would become a major hurricane.
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Published Friday 11/02/01 at 10:00 pm. As I've feared all along Hurricane Michelle has undergone explosive growth today and at the latest advisory has sustained winds of 110 mph with gusts to 130 mph and flight level winds of 124 mph!. A category 3 hurricane has sustained winds of 111 mph. Continued strengthening to a strong category 3 cyclone is still probable, with a weak category 4 still possible.
I'm used to criticism for my brash no holds barred weather forecasting style. Even with an approximate 98% accuracy rate the attacks via email just never end. I'm not constricted by narrow minded bureaucrats like many fellow Meteorologists and this allows the creative juices to flow but the criticism I've weathered for days over my advanced forecast of a category 3 cyclone in the Western Caribbean Sea in November has been withering. It appears that as usual I'm being vindicated and South Florida is still in serious danger of a major hurricane strike during the Sunday/Monday period. I began talking about a late season hurricane threat to Florida back on 10/20 and a major hurricane threat on 10/28.
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Published Friday 11/02/01 at 9:00 am. Well Michelle is now a minimum category 1 hurricane and as usual trying to forecast a late season hurricane can be a real nightmare, ala Mitch and Lenny in previous years. I still feel that Michelle's future strength will dictate it's eventual path. She should reach minimal category 3 strength, with her outflow to the North through east, stopping an early NE-E turn across Cuba and then through the Bahama Islands.
Temperate and tropical models are muddled as usual, in trying to forecast a late season hurricane. The Bracknell and LBAR models hint at what the eventual path may be, somewhere through the Yucatan Channel and then into South Florida, with the UKMET doing the best so far with position, strength and path. The UKMET hints at a category 3 hurricane across western Cuba, the Florida Keys and into South Florida, for early next week, as the present 500 mb longwave trough currently in the north and central plains digs SE and east. To complicate things the respected European and NOGAPS hints at the present 500 mb Plains trough NOT picking up Michelle at all, with a lingering and or looping system over western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel vicinity for many days, until the next developing 500 mb trough currently in the NW Pacific grabs it and slings it NE, as far north as Central Florida.
So what am I saying with all this? I have a low confidence in all solutions at the present time and South Florida, especially the Florida Keys must continue to be on continued guard, with Central Florida looking a little safer at this particular moment.
Compare the two satellite images below to see how quickly Michelle is now strengthening.
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Published Thursday 11/01/01 at 8:00 am. I see nothing at this moment that would lead me to change any of my comments from yesterday morning. There are some model hints that would bring Michelle abruptly right, through the Florida Keys and maybe directly across South Florida but confidence in this particular scenario is not high at the moment. It's seems incredible to be talking about a major hurricane threat to the Florida region in November.
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Published Wednesday 10/31/01 at 6:00 am. The likelihood of near unprecedented major category 2-3 hurricane strike for the state of Florida is increasing, with the period Sunday through Tuesday 11/04-05/01 as the time frame that Florida as a whole could be impacted. At one point Michelle may reach category 4 status.
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Published Tuesday 10/30/01 at 8:00 am. We now have tropical storm Lorenzo in the far north Atlantic and no threat to land. A future Hurricane Michelle continues to organize and strengthen in the western Caribbean. This storm has the "potential" to reach an unprecedented late season cat 3-4 level as it traverses virgin warm water in the southern Gulf Of Mexico west of Key West. While it's "to early" to map out an accurate path senario, a battering trip up the west coast of Florida including hurricane force wind and storm surge, with a landfall in the Big Bend area is possible. A weakening of the cyclone would be likely one it reached a latitude of 28 degrees north much like Opal in 1995. As usual most of the population along the west coast of Florida is asleep at the wheel on this storm but this is a very serious hurricane threat.
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Published Sunday 10/28/01 at 10:00 am. Looks like the Florida region will face a late season tropical threat by the end of next week, possibly a Lorenzo. The source region is currently the western Caribbean Sea east of Central America.
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Published Wednesday 10/24/01 at 11:00 am. Even though the 2001 hurrican season is basically over, there is still the possibility of one more named storm to affect the Florida region during the next 10 days.
Though the record books will say that Florida was not hit with a hurricane this season thats baloney, as Barry and Gabrielle were hurricanes when they came ashore.
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Published Saturday 10/20/01 at 11:00 am. We continue with a broad area of low pressure extending from the Bahama Islands across the Florida Straits and into the Yucatan Channel and east Of Central America, in association with a tropical wave and old cold frontal boundry. Development of a tropical depression south of the Yucatan Channel is possible but will be a slow process with shearing just to the north. Increasing rain chances will continue across the southern and central peninsula during the next 3-4 days.
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Published Thursday 10/18/01 at 10:00 am. It looks like the tropical wave currently approaching the Bahama Islands will bring wind and rain to south Florida over the weekend. A piece of this system may turn north and NE towards Bermuda and has a chance for further development. A second area of disturbed weather south of the Greater Antilles has the potential to impact the Florida region in future days.
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Published Tuesday 10/16/01 at 8:00 am. It looks like shearing will preclude any tropical development in the vicinity of the Bay Of Campeche and Yucatan Peninsula. The subtropical disturbance NW of Puerto Rico will arrive along the SE coast Of Florida within three to four days, possibly as Lorenzo.
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Published Sunday 10/14/01 at 11:00 pm. We also may have tropical troubles brewing in the Bay of Campeche. It could be an interesting next 7 days coming up.
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Published Saturday 10/13/01 at 11:00 pm. Looks like we may have a Tropical Storm Lorenzo within 48 hours. The system is currently north of Puerto Rico and it has a chance to follow an Andrew track into the Florida region.
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Published Saturday 10/13/01 at 5:00 pm. I see that the TPC/NHC finally awoke from their slumber and noticed that it was Hurricane Karen that blasted the heck out of Bermuda yesterday, good greif!!!!!
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Published Friday 10/12/01 at 8:00 am. HHHHMMMM, sure looks like a hurricane is hitting Bermuda to me!
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Published Tuesday 10/9/01 at 9:00 pm. Even though T.S. Jerry has fallen apart and is just a weak tropical wave again, don't be fooled, as it may regenerate in the western Caribbean and is still a threat to the Florida Region.
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Published Sunday 10/07/01 at 9:00 am. We now have Hurricane Iris and it appears that she may stay south of the Florida region and cross the Yucatan Channel. We also now have T.S. Jerry, which will threaten the Florida region in approximately one week.
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Published Sunday 10/02/01 at 9:00 am. It looks like more tropical troubles for the Florida, her name will be Iris.
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Published Monday 09/17/01 at 9:00 am. Well never declared Hurricane Gabrielle did serious damage to structures, trees, power and phone lines in southern Hillsborough, as well as Manatee and Sarasota counties on Saturday.
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Published Friday 09/14/01 at 8:30 am. Well latest hurricane hunter recon. for the 8:00 am intermediate advisory says that Gabrielle is now a hurricane, with a 980 mb pressure and winds of 72 kts surface and 81 kts flight level. For whatever mysterious reason they have not upgraded Gabrielle to a hurricane, a similar boondoggle happened with Barry earlier this season in the Florida Panhandle, another hurricane at landfall never upgraded. I can't recall a previous tropical cyclone season where the TPC/NHC has been so downright erratic.
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Published Tuesday 09/11/01 at 5:00 pm. (((((WARNING))))) T.D #8 HAS FORMED IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME GABRIELLE AND THREATEN THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY WEEKS END. SERIOUS FLOODING RAINS OF 15-20 INCHES PLUS STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
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Published Monday 08/20/01 at 10:00 am. It now looks like the track for disorganized T.S. Chantal will be across the Yucatan Peninsula and then into the Bay Of Campeche, IF she survives the crossing.
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Published Sunday 08/19/01 at 12:00 pm. T.S. Chantal has slowed it's forward speed as expected and should reach hurricane status within 24 hours and now has a better opportunity to move through the Yucatan Strait. A track across the Yucatan Peninsula will place the biggest threat west of Mobile, a track through the Yucatan Strait and the biggest threat is east of Mobile and obviously Florida. At the moment I place the threat as 55% west of Mobile and 45% east of Mobile for a cat 1-2 or higher hurricane by midweek.
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Published Monday 08/12/01 at 8:00 am. Well it looks like things are really beginning to heat up in the tropical Atlantic basin, with high pressure ridging across the entire basin and into North America. This opens the door for the Cape Verde season of tropical cyclones through the Caribbean south of the big islands. We could have a Chantal by the 16th, with a cat 2 threat to the Florida region by the 22nd.
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Published Monday 08/06/01 at 8:00 pm. Unfortunately due to increased workload in and out of my business, I am once again forced to end my educasts for an indefinate period of time but check back during tropical cyclone threats for my educasts. I hope you have enjoyed and benefited from our accuracy during the past year.
Hang onto your hats and wallets, as I think many of us in Florida will have an unpleasant tropical cyclone season this summer.
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Published Sunday 08/05/01 at 5:00 pm. Barry remains a strong tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. It should reach minimal cat 1 hurricane status within the next 6 hours but with the center so close to landfall now, hurricane status is not guaranteed.
It's interesting to note that the seabreeze convergent line of thunderstorms down the ridge of Florida has been taken in by the circulation of Barry. Helicity values will increase with the chance for isolated tornadoes. Also a second spiral band is approaching the west coast of the state.
Within 48 hours the state should begin returning to a more normal SE flow and afternoon and evening thunderstorms along the west coast.
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Published Sunday 08/05/01 at 11:00 am. Looks like our educast for a cat 1 hurricane landfall in the Florida Panhandle will verify during the next 24 hours. Say somewhere between Panama City and Ft. Walton Beach.
We also have three active tropical waves in the tropical Atlantic Basin located at approximately 15-4n 26w (strong), 15-5n 46w and 20-8n 80w. The wave at 26w continues to be the best candidate for becoming Chantal. This disturbance should arive in the Florida region in 7-8 days!
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Published Saturday 08/04/01 at 3:00 pm. I'd say that the NHC should be looking at a landfall window now of Apalachicola to New Orleans, with the highest chance of landfall between Pensacola and Mobile as a min. cat 1 hurricane at best.
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Published Saturday 08/04/01 at 11:00 am. During the past 48 hours T.S. Barry has been basically stationary, with a slight drift to the WNW, as it has undergone continuous shearing, with it's mid level circulation moving ENE towards the Florida Peninsula. I would not be surprised if he is temporarily downgraded to tropical wave status. Current numbers are 26.8n 87.8w, 40 mph, 29.68", stationary. It's a tough call on it's future track as it's not moving, so a Panama City to Galveston Bay solution is the only logical guesscast, with best guess still at the Louisiana delta as a minimal cat 1. Retrograding east coast 500 mb energy could send Barry ashore east of Mobile Bay or with time re-established Bermuda high pressure ridging may send Barry to the upper Texas coast.
We also have three active tropical waves in the tropical Atlantic Basin located at approximately 19-8n 21w (strong), 23-9n 40w and 22-8n 75w. The wave at 21w is presently the best candidate for becoming Chantal.
In Florida rain, rain, rain continues with 2-4" totals common during the first three days of August and ridiculous totals as high as 12". No let up in the daily flooding rains are in sight in the near term. Gee screams of continued drought are beginning to be drowned out, it's about time!
With a surface high pressure ridge to our south and east and T.S. Barry to our west, the peninsula will be under a south then SSW-SW deep (500 mb) and moist (PWAT'S 2.0+") flow for the next 48 hours. This in combination with a couple of vorticity maximums will ensure scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the peninsula. Also, with some mid level drying, locally severe thunderstorms are possible, especially along seabreeze and outflow boundaries.
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Published Thursday 08/02/01 at 5:00 pm. Gee what a difference 24 hours makes! As of 3:00 pm EDT and per our educast going back to Sunday 07/29/01, we have T.S. Barry. Though it's on an alleged NW track, radar shows a slow northward movement at this time. Interests from Tampa Bay to Brownsville need to keep a close eye on this developing system. A later NW-WNW course is reasonable, which would target a region between Mobile Bay and Galveston Bay.
Currently the southern and central peninsula of Florida is enduring squally weather and heavy flooding rainfall, which will continue for another 12-24 hours.
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Published Wednesday 08/01/01 at 5:00 pm. Note the mid and possible low level circulation between Key West and Naples on the radar image below! As usual most everyone is asleep at the wheel BUT interests around the gulf coast should begin paying attention to what's going on now and during the next 48-72 hours!!!
We also have strong tropical waves at 20-7n 22w and 22-5n 57w. It is possible that the wave at 57 w may also reach named status, with two named storms in existence simultaneously.
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Published Wednesday 08/01/01 at 1:00 pm. Unfortunately I don't have the time to do the current and developing weather pattern justice analysis wise but here goes. It looks like a very wet 48 hour period for the central and southern peninsula, in conjunction with the tropical wave now passing through the region, flooding rains wet.
Back on the 29th we made mention of TD #3 and T.S. Barry and we still feel this senario possible or even probable during the next 48-72 hours, as the tropical wave moves into the SE Gulf Of Mexico. At the moment though the wave has two seperate centers of circulation and this clouds the whole development and movement senario at the moment.
Speaking of rain, many areas of the peninsula saw 10-15" of rainfall in July. Actually a number of areas saw 20-30". So this makes the peninsula ripe for serious flooding during the next 48 hours!
We also have strong tropical waves at 20-7n 22w and 22-5n 57w. It is possible that the wave at 57 w may also reach named status, with two named storms in existence simultaneously.
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Published Sunday 07/29/01 at 11:00 am. This morning we have tropical waves
at 19-7n 35w, 20-8n 60w and 22-8n 86w. The wave at 60w is strong with
increasing convection, though it is currently interacting with a tutt low
north of P.R. As it moves west it will slow down and move into an
environment more conducive to development. This system could create tropical
troubles in the Florida region by the middle the upcoming week.
In Florida I can find little reason for any appreciable thunderstorm
coverage today, except in association with east and west coast seabreeze
boundary collisions along the west coast during the late afternoon and early
evening period, some of which may be locally severe. PWAT's have dropped to
below climo. with little CAPE, no helicity and warming 500 mb temps., in
association with the dying tutt low to the south and the Bermuda surface
high pressure ridge axis which has been suppressed southward across the
north central peninsula today, by an east coast 500 mb trough.
During the next 24-48 hours the southern peninsula will stay under a SE flow, with the central peninsula continuing under a light and variable flow and the north central peninsula and then central peninsula falling under SW flow by Tuesday 07/31/01 ahead of the next out of season cold front that may make it to the central peninsula and then stall and wash out. Temperatures will climb to the mid 90's across the central peninsula today.
By mid week widespread and heavy rainfall may redevelop across the peninsula, as tropical wave now at 20-8n 60w moves into the Florida region, possibly as T.D. #3 or even T.S. Barry as it reaches the Gulf Of Mexico.
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Published Saturday 07/28/01 at 11:00 am. The tropical Atlantic Ocean basin is a little more quiet today with tropical waves at approximately 21-6n 23w, 21-6n 51w and 22-8n 87w. None of the waves have any organized convection associated within at this time.
In Florida severe weather in the form of damaging downburst winds, funnel clouds and waterspouts have occurred during the past 48 hours across the central peninsula.
Latest analysis indicates that the Bermuda high pressure ridge axis is still located to the north of the peninsula, with a tutt (cold core) low over the western Bahama's. The eastern and southern peninsula is experiencing subsidence in conjunction with the tutt low. Low and mid level flow to 600 mb has backed to lighter ESE compared to stronger SSE yesterday, with ENE flow above 600 mb. This should allow for stronger east and west coast seabreeze development, inland penetration and collisions today.
1200 UTC Skew T at TBW shows a PWAT of 1.76", a cooler 500 mb temp. of -8.3 deg. celsius (more lightning today), a CAPE of only 1033 and helicity of only 1. At MLB the PWAT is 1.69", 500 mb temp. of -7.9 deg. celsius, a CAPE of 1589 and helicity of -14.
It all adds up to possible damaging downburst winds, excessive lightning strikes, flooding rains with light steering currents and possible funnel clouds where seabreeze, lake and outflow boundaries collide. Outside of collisions, no severe weather is expected as helicities are non existent.
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Published Thursday 07/26/01 at 10:00 am. The tropical Atlantic Ocean basin is a little more active today with tropical waves at approximately 18-4n 28w, 19-5n 48w, 22-8n 74w and 25-12n 86w.
Heavy to severe thunderstorms lashed the coastal west central peninsula and adjacent counties yeterday evening with flooding rains, hail and funnel clouds. Expect more of the same today.
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Published Wednesday 07/25/01 at 12:00 noon. The tropical Atlantic Ocean basin continues relatively quiet with the previous tropical disturbance in the NE Gulf Of Mexico long ashore and tropical waves at 18-5n 45w, 21-6n 66w and 22-7n 81w.
Incredible but true, deep southeast flow to 500 mb has returned for the first time in 3 weeks and will stick around for a while, as the Bermuda high pressure center and it's surface ridge axis establishes itself for the first time this summer season. This is part of the advertised weather pattern change that will herald in a more active Atlantic tropics.
This pattern change of course means late afternoon and evening thunderstorms for the west coast and adjacent counties. CAPE and helicity are on the low side, so any severe weather potential will be in the form of downburst winds tied to mid level dryness and pulse type locally severe cells tied to boundary collisions. However energy in the form of high CAPE is lurking along the east and SE coast and will spread NW later today and through Friday 07/27/01, in association with a WNW moving tropical wave.
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Published Tuesday 07/24/01 at 10:00 am. Our tropical disturbance is now ashore over the panhandle region near Tallahassee at approximately 30.5n 84w. The system lashed the west coast counties of Florida yesterday from Cape Coral/Ft. Myers to the Big Bend Area with 5-10" of rainfall and gale force winds to 50 mph.
We also have tropical waves at 22-12n 74w and 16-6n 39w. The wave at 74w will cross the Florida region on Thursday 07/26/01, with an increase in widespread heavy rainfall for the state. In the meantime our much absent SE tradewind flow begins returning today and will be around for the remainder of the week, as the Bermuda surface high pressure ridge axis strengthens and move north of the state.
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Published Monday 07/23/01 at 10:00 am. During the past 24 hours coastal areas from Bradenton south to Ft. Myers have received 9-15" of rain with entrainment of storm cells, in conjunction with the quasi stationary surface low SW of Tampa Bay. These heavy rains are beginning to move N-NE along the west coast and continue to pose a flood hazard during the next 24 hours for the west central gulf coast and adjacent inland counties as far north as Citrus County.
The surface low should begin a slow northward movement today, dragging it's precipitation shield with it, as the Bermuda surface high pressure ridge axis begins strengthening and moving north across the peninsula. As cold core support for the surface low continues retreating NE, opportunity for the surface low to gain tropical characteristics exists.
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Published Sunday 07/22/01 at 10:00 pm. As said earlier this evening, the surface low west of Tampa Bay bears watching for tropical development during the next 24-48 hours. Latest TBW 0000 UTC Skew T shows dry air at mid levels which will hamper any rapid development of this system.
Elsewhere in Florida flooding rainfall once again visited areas of the north central and west coast areas of the peninsula with 3-6" rain totals. It's been a Jekyll and Hyde July on the peninsula so far with some areas receiving near or slightly below normal rainfall and many areas absolutely being deluged with 15-20".
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Published Sunday 07/22/01 at 6:00 pm. If the mid level low east of Cape Canaveral drifts west and stacks vertically with the surface low SW of Tampa Bay, some areas of the central peninsula may see entrainment rainfall totals of up to 10.00" during the next 24-36 hours! This system though non tropical at the moment, bears watching for slow conversion to a warm core tropical system during the next 24-48 hours.
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Published Sunday 07/22/01 at 11:00 am. The tropical Atlantic Ocean basin continues quiet with weak tropical waves at approximately 17-3n 28w and 22-8n 61w. The eastern Pacific has awakened from it's slumber and the the tropical atlantic will begin doing the same in 1-2 weeks, as we see a big change in the 500 mb pattern.
In Florida, wet, wet, wet, wet, wet, with an increasing number of rivers and streams moving to or above flood stage. Yesterday across the peninsula rainfall totals of 3-6" were common and a repeat is assured once again today. We have a stationary front lying across the central peninsula, in conjunction with a surface low just off the central west coast and a mid level low/vort. max. embedded in the 500 mb longwave trough, just off the central east coast, which will retrograde across the peninsula today bringing colder 500 mb temperatures and tapping very moist tropical air on low level S-SW flow. Widespread thunderstorms and flooding rains are probable later today and into the overnight hours.
Also as I've already stated, the drought is over but unfortunately some government and media organs continue to cry drought for hype/money/power/control/political reasons, what a shame!!! Basically there are three ways to call an end to a drought. 1.) when normal rainfall returns, 2.) previous rainfall deficits are erased, 3.) water storge aquifers return to normal levels. I use #1 and the B.S. artists use #2 and or #3. The B.S. artists are screaming deficits of -10 to -50 inches but are ignoring the El Nino induced +40 inch rainfall total excesses of 1997-98.
For all practical purposes #2 is impossible to attain. We have huge accumulated rainfall deficits in this state going back 40 years, as the state has become drier due to unwise filling of wetlands and paving over of the land, which has disrupted the normal hydrologic cycle and natural recharge of the aquifer. #3 takes time, lot's of time as only 1/4 to 1/3 of annual rainfall reaches the aquifer, due to permeability and runoff issues.
Once again, the problem isn't a water shortage, it's a water storage and distribution problem in Florida. Who's to blame? In varying degrees the science ignorant voting population, leftists environmental extremists and politicians who sell their vote to the highest bidder. You can see all doing the stupidity dance over the desalinization plant proposal here in Hillsborough County.
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Published Friday 07/20/01 at 11:00 am. The tropics? zzzzzzzzz. Florida? rain, rain, rain and river flooding threat over the weekend. Maybe a brief return to tradewind E-SE flow by Wednesday 07/25/01 but short lived!
We are now seeing some rivers above flood stage in the state and the list will grow BUT the sky is falling crowd is still screaming WATER SHORTAGE AND DROUGHT!
Starting back in May I have repeatedly mentioned a wet subtropical to tropical SW flow pattern for Florida this summer and so far it's verifying. I also feel it will intensify as the summer season progresses, reaching a cresendo by September. I feel this is all tied to a returning El Nino pattern. The returning El Nino will not reach the intensity of the 1997-98 event, as an event that strong only happens every 8-15 years. However I feel it will be strong enough to increase precipitation in Florida through the fall and winter of 2001-2002, as well as a warner winter compared to 2000-2001.
Published Thursday 07/19/01 at 12:00 noon. Globally tropical conditions continue relatively quiet, though that never lasts to long in the Pacific Ocean basin. Here in the Atlantic Ocean basin we have one tropical wave at approximately 19-8n 62w, which is interacting with a tutt low north of P.R. and a second tropical wave is located at approximately 18-5n 25w and is encountering some shear.
Here in Florida it's also the same ol same ol. Analysis shows LI's of -3 to -4, 500 mb temps. of -5 to -6 deg. celsius, PWAT's of 1.92-2.01" and SW flow to 700 mb's and NE above that. There is some mid level dry air over the NE peninsula that may work SW over the central peninsula during the afternoon, further destabalizing the atmosphere. With weak SW storm steering flow, gulf and atlantic seabreezes will form and collide over interier areas by mid afternoon. Storm movement will be slow and chaotic, with movement dictated by boundary collisions and locally flooding rains once again a threat. The Orlando metro area saw 4-6" rainfall totals yesterday with slow moving storms.
Another eastern U.S. 500 mb longwave trough is expected by weekend, with it's attendent cold front moving into the northern 1/3 of the peninsula. This could once again be the focus of widespread heavy rainfall for the state.
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Published Monday 07/16/01 at 12:00 noon. A quick and quieter turn around in the tropical Atlantic Ocean basin. Weaker tropical waves compared to yesterday are located at approximately 22-8n 34w, 16-6n 59w, 21-9n 70w. Until the full latitude 500 mb longwave trough in the Florida region weakens and retreats NE, tropical development with the stationary surface trough across the southern peninsula is nil. The remains of T.D. #2 at 65w will arrive in the region within 48-72 hours but it appears that another 500 mb longwave trough may develop in the eastern U.S. in the mid term and shearing in the Gulf Of Mexico will continue.
4-6" entrainment rainfall totals occurred in portions of the east central and southern peninsula yesterday, in association with the quasi stationary front and ripples of surface low pressure. Doing some analysis this morning shows even drier air then yesterday above 700 mb, with weaker wind shear at around 750-700 mb (SE/NNE), PWAT's of 1.54-1.81" and 500 mb temps. of around -6 to -7 deg. celsius. It all adds up to below climo. lightning storm chances north, slightly below normal central but above normal south, in continues association with the stationary front today, with a slight chance of severe weather central.
The front begins it's return northward later today and tomorrow with increasing lightning storm chances, as a deepening and more moist SE-S flow develops for central and northern areas of the peninsula for Tuesday 07/17/01 and through the balance of the week but actually maybe SW by Thursday, with the next 500 mb longwave trough and surface front. As educasted back in May, the predominate wet SW flow pattern continues to verify, with only short term oscillations to E-SE tradewind flow.
Dewpoints in the low and mid 60's were common across the northern and inland areas of the central peninsula yesterday afternoon. That in conjunction with a brisk NE wind made it fee noticeably more springlike, especially compared with a recent spate of days with dewpoints in the mid 70's to around 80 deg. Minimum temperatures this morning were in the low to upper 60's across the same region. Unfortunately the low dewpoint regime is already retreating northward with the front.
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Published Sunday 07/15/01 at 12:00 noon. We have an active tropical Atlantic Ocean basin this morning, with a series of potent tropical waves at approximately 20-9n 87w, 17-8n 65w (strong), 17-8n 50w (strong) and 20-7n 30w (strong). Interaction between the stationary front across the Florida region and waves currently at 65 and 50w could spell trouble for the western Caribbean and Gulf Of Mexico region by the end of this upcoming week.
Closer to home, most have placed the stationary front to far south. It actually lies along approximately 28 deg. north (TBW-MLB) and entrainment storms are occurring along the convergence zone in southern Brevard County. Doing some analysis shows dry air above 700 mb, wind shear at around 750-700 mb (NE-ENE/W-NW), PWAT's of 1.88-2.02", 500 mb temps. of around -6 deg. celsius and an approaching 500 mb vorticity maximum/shortwave from the NW, within the full latitude 500 mb longwave trough. It all adds up to being wetter today then I first thought but still closer to climo. then the past week. Some severe weather is possible later today as well as some entrainment flooding rains, as storms move from east to west across the peninsula today. Note, the northern peninsula will be drier and the southern peninsula wetter today, compared to the central peninsula. In the longer term near climo. rain chances will prevail across the peninsula on east winds until late in the week, when tropical troubles may spell more heavy rainfall for the state.
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Published Saturday 07/14/01 at 6:00 pm. No changes of consequence on the tropical front since this morning but here in central Florida 3-5" thunderstorm entrainment rains have fallen this afternoon ahead of the cold front. The front passed my location an hour or so ago shifting the wind direction from WNW to NE. It's unusual to see a cold front passage on the peninsula in July and overnight minimum temperatures will be lower for 2-3 days!
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Published Saturday 07/14/01 at 10:00 am. This morning we have tropical waves at 22-10n 82w, 18-8n 58w (EX T.D. #2), 15-5n 44w, 18-5n 23w. As mentioned previously tropical troubles for the Florida region begin in the latter part of next week onward, (Wed/Thu 7/18-19) as the energy and moisture of EX TD #2 arrives and interacts with what will be a stationary front across the peninsula, in conjunction with warm SST's in the mid and upper 80's and warming above 300 mb.
For today in the Florida region, lot's of tropical rains, some heavy, with fast moving lightning storms (fast and deep and very moist west flow to 300 mb!), as the pre frontal trough moves down the state, in conjunction with an old MCC boundary from the northern peninsula and other future outflow boundary collisions. Some storm entrainment flooding problems are possible with the southward sagging frontal boundary,as well as some locally severe weather as the mid atmosphere column see's increased drying from north to south.
Some drier air moves into the central peninsula on N-NE flow on Sunday 07/15/01 and heralds in a more normal easterly tradewind flow and a late afternoon and evening west coast lightning storm pattern, albiet with less moisture to work with. Expect some morning temperatures into the mid and upper 60's across inland rural areas of the central peninsula for 2-3 days and then tropical troubles arriving late in the week.
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Published Friday 07/13/01 at 8:00 pm. EX T.D. #2 at 18-8n 54w seems to have retained a defined low level circulation and it's cloudiness and storm activity is increasing once again. Most have written this system off but as it continues to move into a more favorable environment, redevelop is still possible. Other strong tropical waves with low level circulations are at approximately 15-5n 19w, 15-5n 36w and a lesser wave at 20-10n 78w.
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Published Friday 07/13/01 at 8:00 am. Well T.D. #2 fizzled back into an open wave at 18-8n 52w yesterday evening due to the marginal SST's we discussed yesterday, leaving me a fish out of water:<) Though it obviously looked weaker on satellite images yesterday versus the day before, I thought it would hold together until it made it to more favorable SST's and become Barry, a thought process that bucked climo. However, as the wave moves into a more favorable environment during the next 24-48 hours regeneration is possible. Other tropical waves are located at 16-3n 32w, and 22-12n 78w.
Back in the Florida region we have deep, moist and fast moving west flow, TBW PWAT at 0000 UTC sounding was 2.30". With no real convergence mechanisms in place other then boundary collisions, fast moving tropical showers with relatively light rainfall totals will be the norm today, however where boundaries due meet 4.00"+ totals are again possible. Western Pasco and Hernando Counties have been very hard hit during the past week with 10.00" rainfall totals, I know as I've been in that region and am headed back there again today, where it's already raining.
For the weekend the educast get's as tough as possible in Florida in summer. Our persisent 500 mb east coast trough digs far enough south to place the cold front/surface trough somewhere over the peninsula by tomorrow. As the front stalls somewhere over the central peninsula? north of the shear axis will see a wind shift to NE-ENE and relatively drier air advecting southward, long the shear axis the possibility of flooding rainfall with entraining thunderstorms is a real danger and to the south more normal summer like weather on west flow. Eventually the NE-E flow should bridge across most of the peninsula, ushering a pattern shift back to late afternoon and evening lightning storms on easterly tradewinds. There are signs of a large weather pattern change across most of the country, a pattern change that would allow the surface high pressure ridge axis to return north of the state for a prolonged period of time.
By the way, a few days ago I stopped by to see a travel agency customer in the nearby community of Thonotosassa, she had bought one of our business signs and we were doing a warranty check on it. Well when we got there, the sign made it through with some damage but everything else including the building was WIPED OUT BY A RECEENT TORNADO, man what a shock!!! Well we do make good signs though.
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Published Thursday 07/12/01 at 9:00 am. We have tropical depression #2. At 9:00 am EDT it is located at 12.3 n 46.2 w, moving wnw at 18 mph. Winds are 25 mph with a central pressure of 29.85". At the moment it is in an area of neglible shearing, however SST's are marginal for significant development. However it should become Tropical Storm Barry within 2.5 days as it moves over warmer SST's. It will more then likely pass south of Puerto Rico on a more westerly course, moving with the westward building Bermuda high pressure ridge extension but may have to deal with a cold core TUTT low north of Puerto Rico and then eventually the mountainous island of Hispanola. In whatever form it survives in, it's moisture will arrive in the Florida region within a week. Elsewhere we have tropical waves at 16-3n 28w and 21-8n 71w. Also we have to watch the surface trough (old cold front) as it stalls across the Florida region this upcoming weekend.
Closer to home, as The Beatles sang, "it's getting wetter all the time, wetter, wetter, wetter!" We are fast moving to flooding status across much of the peninsula and we will see daily tropical deluges through the weekend. The surface trough that will stall across the peninsula during the weekend, will be the focus of very heavy rainfall, as is very typical of this type of situation.
Actually the next 6-10 days should be VERY wet but alas the government and media organs will still cry drought. Remember there are people within the government at various levels that want you back on a horse and flushing your toilet once a week, they can never be appeased.
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Published Tuesday 07/10/01 at 4:00 pm. Our tropical wave at 15-5n 41w is looking pretty healthy. It's in an area that's increasingly favorable for development. In previous days we did educast an increase in activity for July.
4.00"+ rainfall totals were common earlier today in coastal Hernando and Pasco Counties. With deep (400 mb) and moist (PWAT's 2.00"+) west flow, increasing 250 mb difluence and surface convergence with the surface trough/sheear axis moving across the central peninsula, excessive flooding rains are once again probable for Thursday 07/12/01.
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Published Tuesday 07/10/01 at 11:00 am. Things are starting to look a little more active in the tropics. First of all a late season cold front will make it to the Gulf Of Mexico in the medium term and this always has the potential for tropical trouble. Most tropical activity in June and into July develops in the Gulf Of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea, in conjunction with late season dying cold fronts. Also we have a healthy tropical wave located at approximately 15-5n 39w, with a low level circulation at 9n and a flare up of convection. This tropical troublemaker ia a week away from the Florida region. There is also a weaker tropical wave at 20-8n 64w.
Closer to home we are seeing what I consider the second of what I educasted for this summer, as a series of wet non or semi tropical systems, kind of El Nino-ish. Widespread heavy to flooding rains have fallen across much of the peninsula during the past 48 hours under deep and moist west flow and in conjunction with a series of upper air disturbances moving around the periphery of the blocking anticyclone over the southern plains and deep south.
Today we see PWAT's of 2.00"+ again with LI's of -3 to -6, 500 mb temps of around -6 deg. celsius, capes of around 4500 and another in a series of mid level disturbances, which will lead to more widespread and heavy precipitation. Fortunately the atmospheric column is so deeply saturated that severe weather should be at a minimum. This wet pattern is expected to continue into the upcoming weekend.
As I've educasted previously in May, this will be a wet summer for the Florida region, in conjunction with an active tropical season and building El Nino pattern. We expect the wetness to last through September and into October and we may all be sick of the rains by then, much like in 1998.
Also as I've already stated, the drought is over but unfortunately some government and media organs continue to cry drought for hype/money/power/control/political reasons, what a shame!!! Basically there are three ways to call an end to a drought. 1.) when normal rainfall returns, 2.) previous rainfall deficits are erased, 3.) water storge aquifers return to normal levels. I use #1 and the B.S. artists use #2 and or #3. The B.S. artists are screaming deficits of -10 to -50 inches but are ignoring the El Nino induced +40 inch rainfall total excesses of 1997-98.
Actually some areas of the state including mine show no long term rainfall deficit at all.
Yearly Plant City, FL Rainfall Excess/Deficit
2001 +2.89" Through 06/30
2000 -1.24"
1999 +2.16"
1998 +16.38"
1997 +22.19"
1996 +6.33"
These same B.S. artists oppose all efforts to solve Florida's real water problem, lack of an infrastructure for storage and transport of potable water. Opposition to desalinization, tapping runoff from 1st magnitude springs, building resevoirs, aqueducts, etc. comes on the same tired old excuse, environmental damage. Using the same mentality has created the power shortage in California!!!
Published Sunday 07/08/01 at 12:00 pm. We continue with a very quiet tropical Atlantic Ocean basin, with one tropical wave ashore in Central America and a second at approximately 18-8n 76w. Tropical Cyclone development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
As far as the Florida region, we have a sprawling mid to high level high pressure block over the southern plains and ridging into the deep south including the northern peninsula, a surface trough is in the eastern Gulf Of Mexico and the surface high pressure ridge axis lies across the southern peninsula. A series of impulses will ride anticylonically into Florida within this synoptic pattern. This setup will provide for a light NNW-NNE storm steering flow during the next 48 hours or more, with low level flow from the SW-NW and daily scattered coverage of lightning storms.
At MLB P.W. is 1.61" with a 500 mb temp of -6 deg. celsius, the TBW sounder failed so no data. The gulf coast seabreeze will become active again by early afternoon as it moves inland, with the heaviest concentration of storms across inland and east coast areas. With the light NNW-NNW steering flow, storms should propagate back towards the west coast counties by late afternoon. The biggest threat will be flooding rains with the slow moving storms.
I was in north Tampa yesterday during early afternoon and ran into a seabreeze driven locally severe storm with high wind, flooding rain, hail and frequent intense lightning, what a doozy!
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Published Saturday 07/07/01 at 9:00 am. The tropics? ZZZZZZZZZZ! and we should consider that a good thing?! Anyhow we have one tropical wave at 21-10n 71w and a second at 18-8n 57w. Tropical cyclone development is not expected during the next 48 hours. However I do forecast with a 100% probability that a hurricane will form in the tropical Atlantic Ocean basin this summer :<))
Here in Florida this weekend, the pattern is kind of muddled and chaotic. Yesterday saw SW low and mid level flow and lot's of lightning storms, including one that blasted 16 power poles to the ground in nearby Hernando County. Today features E low level flow and weak and changeable mid level steering flow, as a mid level shearing vorticity maximum moves through the region and the surface high pressure ridge axis meanders to somewhere over the central peninsula today, before heading back south on Sunday 07/08/01 and stays south for a good while.
Looking at the 1200 UTC Skew T numbers at TBW and MLB, Some dry air is trying to work into the west central peninsula behind the vort. max., especially at the mid levels. PW's are 1.72" and 1.96", 500 mb temps. -8.1 and -8.5 deg. celsius respectively at TBW and MLB, with very light SE-NE wind flow between SFC and 400 mb's and a dry slot at 550-350 mb. It all adds up to slow moving lightning storms with locally excessive rainfall, small hail and straightline downburst type winds. My guess is that storm movement will be from the NNW-NNE quadrant today but at less then 5 mph.
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Published Thursday 07/05/01 at 9:00 am. The tropical wave that moved across the peninsula is now in the eastern Gulf Of Mexico near 29-23n 86w, in an environment of increasing shear and continues to move west. Another tropical wave is located near 17-10n 45w, Tropical Cyclone development is not expected during the next 48 hours. We have a pretty quiet tropical scene right now but we will see an increase in activity later this month, in response to above normal SST's.
As educasted, the Florida peninsula saw numerous heavy and in some cases, severe and very slow moving thunderstorms, with flooding rains due to weak and chaotic steering flow, in the vicinity of the surface high pressure ridge axis. The surface high pressure ridge axis is now over the southern peninsula, with moist SW surface flow. 500 mb temps. are between -7 and -8 deg. celsius, with P.W.'s of 1.91" to 1.98". Early morning coastal lightning storms should move ashore, with scattered coverage over inland areas of the coastal counties by early afternoon and more numerous storm coverage over inland and east coast areas during mid afternoon to late evening.
As we said yesterday, SW steering flow and continued unsettled weather will persist during the next 7 days in the Florida region, with a minor see saw battle between SE and SW low and mid level flow, as the surface high pressure ridge axis meanders north and south, in response to passing 500 mb and shortwave troughs. Unfortunately SW flow will win out in the mean during the next week or so, favoring east coast areas of the peninsula lightning storm wise. Also a developing heatwave over the southern plains into the deep south, will effect northern portions of the state over the weekend.
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Published Wednesday 07/04/01 at 10:00 am. Happy 4th! Latest analysis shows the upper air cold core (tutt) low now over Cuba and continuing to head SW-SSW. The diffuse tropical wave axis is hard to locate this morning, maybe between 30-18n and 80w, moving WNW. Some of it's mid level features may have already reached the west coast of Florida. 1200 UTC soundings show a deep NE-SE flow, some dry air still above 700 mb, a 500 mb temp. of around -7 deg. celsius and P.W.'s of 1.75-1.79" and rising to around 2.00", as the day progresses. It all adds up to scattered to widespread flooding rains and lightning storms for most of the peninsula today, as you move north to south.
The fly in the ointment today is storm steering flow. Right now it's from the SE at TBW but looking at the NEXRAD radar loops from TBW and MLB, it appears that the surface high pressure ridge axis lies over the north central peninsula, from about Daytona Beach to Inverness. This means SE steering flow for the southern and central peninsula, light and variable over north central and SW over the northern peninsula. However, the axis will slowly sink southward today and taking this southern movement into account plus east coast, west coast and lake breezes, not to mention outflow boundaries, precipitation movement will be chaotic and changeable as the day wears on.
As far as the tropics, the only other active wave is located at approximately 17-7n 40w. The tropical wave in the vicinity of Florida will move into the Gulf Of Mexico during the next 24 hours. With increasing shear in association with the next full latitude 500 mb eastern U.S. trough, substantial development of this wave is unlikely.
SW steering flow and continued wet weather returns to much of the peninsula on Thurday 07/05/01 and the next 7 days in the Florida region should see a see saw battle between SE and SW low and mid level flow, as the surface high pressure ridge axis meanders north and south in response to passing 500 mb and shortwave troughs.
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Published Tuesday 07/03/01. As educasted subsidence on the periphery of the SW moving Tutt low (upper level cold core) in the Bahama Islands overspread much of the peninsula yesterday and will continue today. On Wednesday 07/04/01 P.W's rise dramatically again in deep E flow to near 2.00", as the next tropical wave currently located at approximately 18n 74w moves through the region and boosts precipitation coverage.
During the period Thursday/Friday 07/05-06/01 the surface high pressure ridge axis moves to south Florida once again, in response to another developing eastern U.S. 500 mb trough, bringing the peninsula under deep and moist SW flow. This will serve to hold moisture over the area in the wake of the tropical wave that will be located in the Gulf Of Mexico.
As far as the tropics, we have tropical waves at 13n 32w and 18n 74w. The tropical wave at 18n and 74w is not expected to develop further as it moves into the Gulf Of Mexico later in the week, due to increased windshear, associated with the developing 500 mb trough.
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Published Sunday 07/01/01 at 11:00 am. The June 2001 rainfall total at my location in rural west Plant City is 12.95", +5.54" above normal. Today? a carbon copy of yesterday, lot's of heavy flooding rains and lightning storms. We have very deep (SFC-300 mb) and moist (P.W. 2.01" at TBW) SE flow and a 500 mb temp. of -9 deg. celsius. Severe weather potential is reduced today due to the deep layered moisture but some will still be around due to seabreeze, lake breeze and outflow boundary collisions. Movement will be much like yesterday, with a (171 deg.) SSE-S movement along the coastal area hugging west coast seabreeze with plenty of lightning. All and all a very hot, steamy (D.P.'s mid to upper 70's) and wet day.
Some mid level drying begins moving across the peninsula late today and into Monday/Tuesday 07/02-03/01, ahead of the SW moving Tutt low in the vicinity of the Bahama's but this will only serve to push pops back to near normal climo. By Wednesday 07/04/01 another tropical wave enters the region, increasing pops above climo through Friday 07/06/01 and then deep SW flow may return by the weekend of 07/07-08/01, as a 500 mb trough develops in the eastern U.S.
As far as the tropics, nothing new with tropical waves at 10n 20w (strong), 15n 53w, 15n 84w and 28n 88w (strong). As I said before, by the middle of next week 500 mb troughing will once again visit the Gulf Of Mexico, increasing sheer and precluding any significant tropical development in the region.
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Published Saturday 06/30/01 at 10:00 am. As educasted drying has occurred in the atmospheric column between 750 and 500 mb, with P.W.'s of 1.50" at TBW (suspect a little to low due to possible error) and 1.73" at XMR. We have SE flow from the surface to 500 mb and SW-NW above that. 500 mb temps. are still around -8 deg. celsius and storm steering flow is basically from the south now (171 deg.) It all adds up to another wet and stormy day. Low level SE trades are still on the brisk side and should once again pin the west coast seabreeze along or near the west coast. This may set up a situation where entrainment may create localized heavy rainfall and flooding once again. With the atmospheric drying in the mid levels damaging downburst winds and hail are possible, with lightning strike frequency near normal.
With one day left in June many areas of the central peninsula have seen monthly rainfall totals of 10-15" and the very wet trend should continue through the first week of July, as a series of tropical waves move through the region. Basically our wet summer forecast is verifying so far, a far cry from every other forecasting entity that called for continued drought statewide.
By the way, yesterday's apparent weather felt like the good old days of my childhood here in Florida, where the humidity was so high that you could cut it with a knife. At one point yesterday with the temperature sitting at 90 deg., the R.H. was 70%, with a dewpoint in the mid and upper 70's!
Also did anyone notice that the fire season never reached the levels feared and screamed about for months AND nobody ran out of drinking water. It's interesting to see the "sky is falling routine" that the government entities and media ranted about once again did not come true, kinda like global warming.
I'm still hearing screams though of tremendous rainfall deficits for the state as a whole during the past two years but here's the reality of it. Yes some areas are still 10-20" below normal during the past two years of the now ended drought BUT they ignore the El Nino induced surpluses and widespread flooding before the current drought.
Here are the yearly rainfall deficit/surplus figures for the past 6 years in the Plant City area of the west central peninsula. Other locations across the state show similar results, with some drier and others wetter.
As far as the tropics, nothing new with tropical waves at 10n 41w, 12n 50w, 15n 81w and 28n 88w. By the middle of next week 500 mb troughing will once again visit the Gulf Of Mexico, increasing sheer and precluding any significant tropical development in the region.
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Published Friday 06/29/01 at 10:00 am. A moist and unstable atmosphere has been left in the wake of the westward moving tropical depression. P.W.'s of around 2.00" and a deep SE flow are in place, which will lead to another round of heavy thunderstorms, with floding rains. However the deep moisture column and a slightly warmer 500 mb temp. of -8 deg. celsius, should curtail widespread severe weather today, in comparison to previous days.
Mid level drying begins on Saturday 06/30/01 and will last through Wednesday 07/04/01, with a return to a more normal late afternoon and evening thunderstorm pattern during the period along the west coast of the peninsula, on SE trades but with an increase in severe weather potential, due to mid level drying.
By Thursday 07/05/01 the surface high pressure ridge axis begins moving south once, again bringing the peninsula under a deep and moist SW flow. The surface ridge will move south in response to another developing 500 mb trough across the eastern U.S., a trough that may dig full latitude to the gulf coast, bringing unseasonably chilly weather as far south as the gulf coast by 168 hours. That should translate into a wet and stormy period once again across the peninsula, with storms moving from SW-NE across the peninsula, much like last week. By the way June has turned out to be a very wet month with many areas seeing 10-15+ inches of rainfall, adios drought,
As far as the tropics, we have tropical waves at 11n 29w, 8n 43w, 14n 71w and 28n 86w. The tropical wave at 28n 86w is now undergoing increasing wind shear and development is now less likely. The tropical wave at 8n 43w has a defined low level circulation, is in an area of low wind shear and has some potential for development, though it's still early for development in this region climo wise.
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Published Thursday 06/28/01 at 11:00 am. The last 48 hours? Heavy rain and thunderstorms. The next 48 hours? With P.W.'s of around 2.00" or more, more heavy and widespread rain and thunderstorms, as a tropical wave crosses the peninsula. Current axis position is around 83w and south of 28n.
As far as the tropics, the tropical wave over Florida has a low to mid level circulation forming and has minor potential for development during the next 24-48 hours. Other tropical waves are located at 10n 21w, 8n 38w (strong), 15n 67w, 20n 92w. The next 7 days could be interesting in the western Caribbean and Gulf Of Mexico.
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Published Tuesday 06/26/01 at 11:00 am. As educasted, low level flow surface to 850 mb has become ESE-Se, with a southerly flow to 650 mb and SW above that. A trend to deeper and more moist SE flow will continue today and through the rest of the week. P.W.'s are at 1.5+" at TBW and 1.7+" at MLB and may climb above 2.0". With 500 mb temps. at -11 deg. celsius and dry air above 700 mb, locally severe thunderstorms are possible once again today, mainly downbursts and hail. As this week progresses the peninsula will likely see widespread heavy rainfall, as a strong tropical wave now located at 69w moves through the region.
Speaking of the tropics, we have active tropical waves at 10n 24w, 10n 52w, 16n 69w and 18n 79w. The wave at 69 w has potential for development during the next 7 days.
By the way, as far as tropical waves, I plot their location differently then many. The axis of a wave may extend from say 10n to 20 n but I pick a central point where the most convection is, say 15 or 16 n, more like positioning a tropical depression. I just find it easier to do it this way.
Published Monday 06/25/01 at 9:00 am. After three days of peninsula wide heavy rainfall in advance of a late season full latitude 500 mb longwave trough and a series of mid and upper level shortwave troughs, deep column drying is now invading the state as far south as the north central peninsula and mid level drying into the central peninsula, P.W. at TBW is 1.44" and falling. In the drier air minimum temps. this morning ranged from 57 deg. at Crestview, 59 deg. at Steinhatchee, 62 deg. at Tallahassee and Brooksville, 63 deg. at Inverness and Archbold, 67 deg. here in Plant City and 69 deg. at Punta Gorda.
Thunderstorm development will be near nill across the north central peninsula today with isolated storms central and scattered south. With mid level drying above 700 mb and a 500 mb temp. of -11 deg. celsius, severe weather in the form of downburst winds and hail is possible today in areas that do get storms.
Today is a transition day across the peninsula as far as low and mid level wind flow. The surface high pressure ridge axis begins moving north later today, with E-SE flow returning to the peninsula on Tuesday 06/26/01. Deep and moist SE flow is established by Wednesday 06/27/01, as a tropical wave axis begins moving across the region, with heavy rainfall potential in the form of afternoon and evening thunderstorms across inland and west coast regions through Friday 06/29/01.
As far as the tropics, we have tropical waves at approximately 9n 21w, 8n 47w and 15n 65w and 15n 75w. Tropical Cyclone development is not expected during the next 24 hours, however the tropical waves at 8n 47w and 15n 65w need to be watched for development during this upcoming week.
By the way many areas of the central peninsula have now seen monthly rainfall totals in excess of 10.00", including areas of Hillsborough County.
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Published Sunday 06/24/01 at 9:00 am. One more wet day from the central peninsula southward, then atmospheric drying sets in with the 500 mb longwave trough axis overhead. Drying continues through Monday/Tuesday 06/25-26 as we transition back to a moist and deep E-SE flow (10,000 feet) and late afternoon and evening thunderstorms along the west coast.
As far as the tropics, we have tropical waves at approximately 6n 32w, 9n 50w and 14n 70w. Tropical Cyclone development is not expected during the next 24 hours.
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Published Saturday 06/23/01 at 12:00 am. It looks like another round of heavy thunderstorms with isolated severe weather including tornadoes, for the whole of the central peninsula today. Flooding rains could also be a problem, especially over the north central peninsula, where the most energy will reside with the passing vorticity maximum. Slightly drier weather returns for Sunday 06/24/01, especially over north central. By Monday 06/25/01 we transition back to deep and moist E-SE flow.
As far as the tropics, we have tropical waves at approximately 9n 23w, 9n 38w, 10n 47w and 13n 62w. Tropical Cyclone development is not expected during the next 24 hours.
Published Friday 06/22/01 at 12:00 am. Looks like a wet and stormy 72 hour period coming up, Friday through Sunday. Analysis shows an eastward moving and strengthening 500 mb trough in the central Gulf Of Mexico, a pipeline of deep tropical moisture amd a series of disturbances.
Back in mid May we forecasted a wet summer, on an El Nino like moist SW flow and the next 72 hours will be the first in hopefully a series of wet subtropical and/or tropical systems throughout the summer season.
As far as the tropics, we have tropical waves at approximately 10n 31w, 10n 43w, 8n 62w and 11n 82w. Tropical Cyclone development is not expected during the next 24 hours, HOWEVER the disturbance at 10n 43w looks strong.
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Published Thursday 06/21/01 at 9:00 am. The surface high pressure ridge axis is now over central Florida. This means light steering currents (SE at less then 5 mph) and potential for excessive rainfall, also an isolated tornado with continued wind sheer in the atmospheric column.
Surface winds back to SSW-W beginning on Friday 06/22/01 and continuing through Sunday 06/24/01, with a transition on Monday 06/25/01 back to a deep SE flow, the usual summer see saw of storm motion.
With high pressure aloft building over the SE U.S., Gulf Of Mexico and western Caribbean next week, there is a possibility of some tropical activity forming in this region. It's hard to say which tropical wave will be the culprit, maybe the one presently near 9n 53w.
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Published Thursday 06/21/01 at 12:00 am. Lot's of severe weather across the central peninsula during the past 48 hours, including a tornado in Manatee County, no surpise with the mid level wind shear present. The surface high pressure ridge axis heads south once again starting later today. This means a South wind today, followed by SSW and then SW-W through Sunday 06/24/01, in response to lower pressure once again moving into the eastern U.S. As usual, with this pattern the heaviest weather will be along the east coast during late afternoon into the early evening BUT there should be plenty of action along the west coast during the morning into the early afternoon.
As far as the tropics, we have tropical waves at approximately 8n 24w, 9n 38w, 9n 53w and 12n 78w. Tropical Cyclone development is not expected during the next 24 hours.
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Published Monday 06/18/01 at 9:00 am. Severe weather once again occurred across the region on Fathers Day. A particularly strong storm struck the west side of Plant City at around 4:00 pm, in the vicinity of S.R. 574 to U.S. 92 near the Florida Strawberry Festival. Powerlines were toppled and many large trees uprooted and/or snapped in half, victim of a probably near hurricane force microburst.
Looking at conditions across the peninsula today we now have a re-established shallow (to 950 mb) light SE flow and a light SW flow (850-750 mb). There also continues a dry slot between 750 and 450 mb's. PW is at 1.42", 500 mb temp is -10 deg celsius, the atmosphere will moisten and SE flow will deepen during the day. Severe weather is once again possible today, first along the west coast seabreeze front and then in the interior as the east and west coast seabreezes collide, then moving back towards coastal areas during the evening hours. As steering winds are light, excessive rainfall is a possibility, as well as excessive lightning.
As far as the tropics, tropical waves are located at approximately 13n 11w, 10n 21w, 13n 46w, 13n 56w and 18n 77w. Tropical Cyclone development is not expected during the next 24 hours. Ex Allison has been absorbed by the eastward advancing cold front along the mid Atlantic coast but not before wreaking havoc in the region.
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Published Saturday 06/16/01 at 9:00 am. Widespread severe weather again across the central peninsula yesterday. Similar weather will continue today, however with less severe coverage due to warming of 500 mb temps. Inland and east coast areas will once again be favored for heaviest storms due to a WSW-WNW surface flow. ESE-SE flow finally makes a return beginning on Monday 06/18/01, increasing rain chances along coastal west Florida.
As far as the tropics, tropical waves are located at approximately 8N 33W, 10N 45W and 8N 33W. Tropical cyclone development is not expected during the next 24 hours. Ex Allison continues to wreak havoc in the mid Atlantic region, with heavy rainfall.
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Published Thursday 06/15/01 at 8:00 pm. Severe weather?! Right here at this location with 3.35" of rain in one hour, 65 mph wind gusts, 1" hail and excessive lightning. Multiple severe thunderstorm warnings were issued in Hillsborough, Pasco and Polk Counties.
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Published Thursday 06/14/01 at 9:00 am. Hhhmmm, dry air between 750 and 450 mb's, light storm steering winds from the WNW at about 6 mph, lifted indices between -9 and -11, precipitable water at 1.71" and 500 mb temps. between -11 and -15 celsius. Somebody will be seeing severe weather today, probably coastal and west central late morning and early afternoon, inland and east coast mid afternoon and into the evening BUT possible back building into west central late in the afternoon. A similar pattern should continue through the weekend, however with increasing storm movement from NW to SE.
As far as the tropics, it is increasingly active again with tropical waves at approximately 7N 18W, 5N 35W and 10N 50W. Tropical cyclone development is not expected during the next 24 hours, however the wave at 5N and 35W is strong and bears watching.
Published Wednesday 06/13/01 at 9:00 am. Same ol same ol. Ex Allison is located along the GA/SC border and moving NE ever so slowly towards Tidewater VA, due to rising heights over the mid Atlantic region. This situation delays the return of the surface high pressure ridge axis northward across the Florida peninsula and therefore the deep and moist SE flow. The ridge axis will move slowly northward during the next 48 hours, allowing for SE flow over the southern half of the state and SW over the northern half but with the ridge axis stalling over the central peninsula, the central region will see deep relatively dry SW then S then a light and variable windflow with subsident air and only small rain chances. Storms will once again favor the inland eand east coast areas much like the past 6 weeks. By next week however the peninsula as a whole will finally fall under deep moist SE flow.
As far as the tropics, it remains relatively quiet with one tropical wave located at approximtely 10n 44w. No tropical storm development is expected during the next 24 hours.
We are basically one month into the summer season and so far our forecast of persistent SW flow is coming to fruition BUT not the consistently stoked up subtropical jet and attendent above normal rainfall, all tied to a building El Nino pattern. We now also see signs of a persistent negative NAO pattern developing in the Atlantic, which aids in persistent and moist SE flow over the state. Toss a coin at this moment to see which pattern will win out for the summer season. Sometimes teleconnection patterns can get muddied.
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Published Tuesday 06/12/01 at 1:00 am. The remnants of T.S. Allison are inland across southern Alabama and are headed NE to the mid Atlantic region, caught up in the subtropical jetstream. This track has kept west Florida in the drier subsident region of the system during the past 48 hours. I expected Allison to track a little further east of north, which would have increased rain chances along west Florida but the STJ stoked up a little quicker then I expected. The closest the moisture plume came was approximaely 100 miles west.
The system's current position and track will delay the northward movement of the surface high pressure ridge axis and a return to deep moist SE flow for 24-48 hours longer then first expected. This will continue the low rain chances along the west coast (20-30%), with the heaviest storms inland and along the east coast during mid afternoon to late evening. North central areas will also see better rain chances as a spoke of vorticity moves across the region, in association with Allison.
As far as the tropics, a lone tropical wave is located at 15n 35 w. No tropical storm development is expected during the next 24 hours.
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Published Sunday 06/10/01 at 12:00 pm. Ex Allison is now back over water south of Louisiana and drifting east, spreading it's moisture shield across the deep south, including north Florida. Redevelopment chances have fallen however, as high pressure aloft is being replaced with the subtropical jetstream, which equals increasing wind shear. Elsewhere tropical waves are located at approximately 7n 27w, 6n 50w, 11n 62w and 15n 80w.
Across the peninsula deep W-SW flow has strenghened during the last 24 hours, with PW (precipitable water) amounts falling slightly. Also NVA (downward moving or subsiding air) continues, all adding up to basically a dry day along the gulf coast and west Florida. Inland and east coast areas may see more thunderstorm activity during the late afternoon and early evening, as some PVA (upward moving air) moves across the state.
Deep and moist SE flow begins returning on Tuesday 06/12/01 and will be back in earnest on Wednesday 06/13/01, with increasing rain chances over west Florida and the gulf coast.
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Published Saturday 06/09/01 at 5:00 pm. Thunderstorm activity has been supressed across most of the central peninsula so far today, due to some subsidence (warm sinking air) over the region. Over the southern peninsula thunderstorms are active and are moving to the east.
Some moisture from T.D. allison may make it to the central peninsula on Sunday 06/10/01 and Monday 06/11/01 but the bulk of the moisture will stream across northern areas of the state. The surface high pressure ridge axis should begin moving back north again on Monday and be north of the central peninsula by Wednesday 06/13/01, with deep moist SE flow returning, as well as late afternoon and evening thunderstorms across west Florida including the Tampa Bay area.
As far as the tropics, ex Allison continues to drift south towards the Gulf Of Mexico. If it reaches the ocean it may redevelop into a tropical storm, as high pressure aloft and little windshear dominates the area. Elsewhere tropical waves are located at approximately 6n 25w, 6n 43w, 14n 73w and 15n 84w.
By the average layman hears this every summer hurricane season but the west coast of Florida IS WAY OVERDUE FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE STRIKE and one day the Tampa Bay area will have the distinction of having the most deaths, injuries and damage of any location, caused by a hurricane in recorded history in North America. We are talking 15,000-20,000 deaths and $100+ billion damage! The sad fact is that not even close to all the population in low lying and vulnerable areas can be evacuated in time and many will drown in their cars on bridges and interstates.
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Published Friday 06/08/01 at 10:00 am. As educasted, the surface high pressure ridge axis has retreated south of the central peninsula again, resulting in a deep and moist SW-W flow through the weekend and early next week. This flow means stifling heat and humidity with morning low temps. in the mid 70's to mid 80's. This means morning storms with possible waterspouts along the west coast, thunderstorms just inland and over west central areas during late morning into early afternoon and then heavier thunderstorms inland and along the east coast during mid afternoon into the evening hours.
Yesterday was an interesting weather day across the peninsula. Both coastal seabreezes were active storm wise but never met and collided. With low level southerly flow and 700 mb mid level flow from the NNW, most storms remained stationary throughout the day, allowing for isolated excessive rainfall totals. Early in the day movement was ever so slightly southward and then ever so slightly nortward late in the day.
As far as the tropics, it continues active with tropical waves at approximately 7N 18W, 7N 35W, 10N 61W and 10N 75W and of course the remains of Allison continues to dump excessive rains ashore in SE Texas. As she is now drifting south towards the Gulf Of Mexico, in an area with high pressure aloft and no appreciable windshear, it's possible that she could strenghen once again. The tropical wave at 7N 18W is strong and bears watching but tropical cyclone of this system development is not expected during the next 24 hours, per seasonal climo.
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Published Thursday 06/07/01 at 10:00 am. After the rainy season starts things get pretty routine, repetitive and boring with Florida weather, unless a tropical system shows up. Therefore today looks to be a repeat once again of heavy late afternoon and evening lightning storms on a southerly surface flow, as the surface high pressure ridge starts it's march southward once again. The period Friday 06/08/01 through the weekend and into early next week will feature a deep and moist SW flow, with reduced thunderstorm chances along the west coast, limited to late morning and early afternoon, with the heaviest weather once again favoring inland and east coast areas.
Speaking of lightning storms, west central Florida was once again pummeled with much needed heavy to excessive rainfall, high winds and frequent lightning. 2.00" totals were common, with some areas seeing 4.00-6.00". Here in rural west Plant City we missed the heaviest activity, with only 1.25" measured and 4.42" during the past three days, not bad.
As far as the tropics, it is increasingly active with tropical waves at approximately 6N 27W, 6N 48W, 11N 71W and 10N 80W and of course the remains of Allison ashore in SE Texas. Tropical cyclone development is not expected during the next 24 hours.
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Published Tuesday 06/05/01 at 8:00 pm. Oops, well we have T.S. Allison in the western Gulf Of Mexico. Max winds are 60 mph and the system is south of Galveston and moving north at 10 mph. It's improbable that she will reach hurricane strength before land fall, due to cool water temperatures along the continental shelf. I said we would have an early start to the tropical cyclone season but geez, June 5th is kind of ominous.
We also got clobbered again today in west central Florida and the Tampa Bay region, as a line of heavy to severe thunderstorms rolled through between 5:30 and 7:30 pm. Here at my location in rural west Plant City, east of Tampa, I saw excessive rainfall of 2.25", small hail, high winds and frequent close lightning.
Wednesday 06/06/01 looks to be a repeat once again of heavy lightning storms on SE winds, with slightly reduced thunderstorm chances along the west coast on Thursday 06/07/01 with a southerly flow and back closer to climo. rain chances for Friday and the weekend on a SW flow, with the heaviest weather once again favoring inland and east coast areas.
Published Tuesday 06/05/01 at 12:00 am. Hhhmmm, the disturbance in the western Gulf Of Mexico is looking interesting. I did educast an early tropical cyclone season, so here we go?!
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Published Monday 06/04/01 at 10:30 PM. Right on schedule and per our earlier educast, the "normal" rainy season pattern of late afternoon and evening thunderstorms arrived across west central Florida and the Tampa Bay area between 8:00 and 10:00 pm this evening. The solid line of storms was accompanied by heavy rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour, wind gusts to 55 mph, 3/4-1" hail and frequent lightning. A repeat is probable once again tomorrow.
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Published Monday 06/04/01 at 10:00 AM. During the overnight hours the surface high pressure ridge axis finally shifted north of the central peninsula, providing for a climo. normal SE tradewind flow for the first time this summer season. This moist flow has a depth to approximately 650 mb's, with a drier SW-W flow above that, providing some wind shear in the environment. This in conjunction with some mid level dryness will lead to some isolated severe weather.
Highest rain chances will be inland and also along the west coast during the late afternoon and evening, a welcomed and needed change. Unfortunately this pattern will be short lived (72 hours), with a deep SW flow returning by Thursday, ahead of the next develping east coast 500 mb longwave trough.
As far as the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf Of Mexico, we have one westward moving tropical wave located at approximately 6N 28W, a second at 14N 60W and a third at 15N 80W. The disturbed area of weather in the Bay Of Campeche continues at this time. Tropical Cyclone development is not expected during the next 24 hours.
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Published Saturday 06/02/01 at 11:00 AM. Appreciable rains fell across west central areas of the peninsula yesterday, as well as the balance of the peninsula. Totals ranged from 0.50-1.25".
A second weaker 500 mb shortwave trough will pass across the north central peninsula promising more rainfall. However, as has been the case lately, most precipitation will fall across inland and east coast areas of the peninsula, with a possibility of hail due to drier air advecting into the mid levels.
Drier conditions closer to normal climo. will return starting on Sunday 06/03/01 but showers and thunderstorms will be around every day during the upcoming week, as the normal rainy season starts in earnest. The period Monday 06/04/01 through Wednesday 06/06/01 will feature a normal SE trade wind flow, with late afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
As far as the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf Of Mexico, we have one westward moving tropical wave located at 5N 50W and a second at 15N 68W. There is also a distrubed area of weather in the Bay Of Campeche. Tropical Cyclone development is not expected during the next 24 hours.
Old stalled and washed out cold fronts are a trigger point for early season tropical cyclone development in the southern Gulf Of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea.
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Published Friday 06/01/01 at 10:00 AM. It apppears that the best widespread rain chances in a long time for the west central peninsula desert will occur today and tonight, with drying coming back in some time on Saturday and all of Sunday and Monday. Unfortunately though due to offshore water temperatures still only in the upper 70's to low 80's and a SW onshore flow, west central areas of the peninsula will see the least amount of rain, due to stabilization effects on the convection.
Northern areas of the peninsula nearer to the core of the 500 mb shortwave energy will see the heaviest precipitation, as well as the inland and east central peninsuala areas due to seabreeze collisions and also the southern peninsula, especially tomorrow.
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Published Thursday 05/31/01 at 9:00 AM. As we all know it's been very hot (mid 90's) and increasingly humid with little rain across the central peninsula during the past 48 hours and today should be similar. The drought conditions are incredibly severe along the west coast of the state with a KBDI index approaching 800 (desert) in Citrus, Hernando, Pasco and Hillsborough counties. Ironically though along the east coast of the state and across the south, the KBDI is under 100 (very wet). Here at my location in rural west Plant City, I've only measured 0.14" of rainfall in the past 60 days!
Fortunately things begin to change on Friday 06/01/01 and into the weekend, as deep moist SW flow begins ahead of another 500 mb shortwave trough and attendent cold front/surface trough. This in conjunction with mid 80 deg. Gulf Of Mexico water temperatures, promises a wet three day period with rainfall finally developing over west central Florida west of 82 deg. west longitude.
Unfortunately drier and sinking air (subsidence) follows the 500 mb shortwave and we dry out once again for Monday 06/04/01 through Wednesday 06 06/01. Thereafter our first normal monsoon but short lived SE tradewind rainfall regime may finally begin. However, with an El Nino stoked up subtropical jetstream, most of our rainfall this summer will come from the SW with many a sultry morning with minimum temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 70's inland to low to mid 80's along the west coast, steamy! As before I still predict a wet summer and active tropical season for the state.
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Published Wednesday 05/30/01 at 10:00 AM. Nothing new to discuss at this moment, with a drying trend developing across most of the central peninsula during the next 48 hours. Best rain chances will continue along the east side of the peninsula.
However it appears that the rainy season will start in earnest during the weekend of 06/02/01, as the El Nino stoked subtropical jet stream moves northward across the state. Better then 50% rain chances should occur during the weekend.
Published Saturday 05/26/01 at 12:00 PM. In response to a series of 500 mb shortwaves and late season cold fronts, south Florida, inland and east central areas of the state have seen heavy to excessive rainfall. Unfortunately though it's the same old problem in west central Florida west of 82 deg. west longitude, incredibly severe drought.
With a southerly low level and SSW mid level flow early in the day, the gulf coast seabreeze continues to move inland earlier then normal, turning the wind flow SW-W and bringing in the stable marine layer into west central areas. Then the seabreeze front moves further inland to our east, colliding with the east coast seabreeze just to our east and then all storms then move E-NE away from us. So it looks like no appreciable rains west of approx. 82 deg. west long., until the Gulf Of Mexico gets warmer.
However next week does promise increasing rain chances along the west coast.
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Published Tuesday 05/22/01 At 11:00 AM. As discussed previously, the rainy season began sputtering anew on Monday 5/21/01, as low and mid level capping was replaced by moist southerly flow. This in combination with temperatures in the mid 90's and seabreeze boundry collisions, allowed for evening thunderstorm development along the ridge from Lake to Highlands County.
A repeat is expected with increased coverage for today and Wednesday but a late season cold front is expected to end precipitation chances for Thursday and Friday across the northern and central peninsula. The Memorial Day weekend is a big ? at the moment, as a second cold front will enter the area and could be the focus of substantial rainfall.
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Published Sunday 05/20/01 At 1:00 PM As we all know it has been warm to hot at day, cool to mild at night and dry across the peninsula during the past week. The only bright spot has been the rainy season continuing to sputter to a start across the southern peninsula, per normal climo.
The rainy season should start sputtering again across the central and northern peninsula beginning on Monday 05/21/01. Also a couple of late season strong cold fronts will cross the state between Wednesday 5/23 and Friday 5/25, temporarily increasing rain chances and then bringing possible record cold temperatures (min. temps. in the 40's and 50's) across the northern half of the state and a new round of dry weather.
Unfortunately though, every late season cold front delays the normal onset of the rainy season. These fronts are related to the present and continuing winter type upper air pattern, the same that brought a cold winter to the eastern 1/3 of the U.S. This pattern will continue into early June, likely ensuring a late start to the rainy season.
Looking at the tropics, Tropical Depression #1 is located in the SW Caribbean Sea and T.D. #2 is located just west of Africa, a normal sign that the tropical Atlantic Ocean is on track as far as warming.
As mentioned in a previous post, it appears we will have an earlier then normal start to the Tropical Cyclone season, with threats originating in the SW Caribbean Sea and Gulf Of Mexico for June and July.
Here are the yearly rainfall deficit figures for the past 6 years in the Plant City area. Other locations across the state show similar results, with some drier and others wetter.
Though most locations across the peninsula are tinderbox dry as far as surface moisture due to the two plus year drought, as you can see there is NO long term rainfall deficit and the statewide ground water aquifer level is averaging only approximately 1 foot below seasonal normal. So why the government and media wolf cry about water shortages, etc.? I'll let all make their own deductions!!!
Florida is not and never will have a water shortage. The problem is a water storage facility shortage, as no infrastructure has been built to handle the population growth. We can thank our incompetent elected officials and "extremist" environmentalists for the water problem here in Florida, much like the nationwide developing energy crisis.
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Published Wednesday 05/16/01 At 10:00 AM Across the central peninsula the rainy season typically begins somewhere during the third week of May and during the second week of May across the southern peninsula. Some years the rainy season can be delayed to as late as mid June, due to lingering winter like upper air patterns.
The rainy season began it's initial on/off sputter phase on Mothers Day Sunday 05/13/01, as max/min temperatures began climbing to around 90/70, with minimum relative humidity levels above 40%. When the season begins in earnest minimum temperatures stay above 70 deg. with minimum relative humidity
levels above 50% and daily rain probabilities (CLIMO) of around 40%.
It is impossible to pinpoint the exact beginning of this years summer monsoon but it may arrive a little late, due to lingering winter like upper air patterns. To complicate matters we appear to be seeing a return of the El Nino Pacific Ocean positive temperature anomaly, which generally disrupts the summer position of the Bermuda high placement and snuffs out the normal wettest SE surface flow direction BUT at the same time the sub tropical jet stream stokes up and much precipitation can roll across the peninsula from the Gulf Of Mexico. A summer El Nino pattern also typically causes drought along the eastern seaboard, excluding peninsular Florida.
It appears that our hurricane season should be a little less active this season (near normal) due to a returning El Nino but due to elevated water temperatures may start sooner. A likely scenario would be hurricane formation in the western Caribbean and moving into the Gulf Of Mexico during June and July.
I forecast that once the rainy season starts it will be a wet one across the state and our present drought will be a distant memory.
The period 5/16-23 will begin generally dry on the central peninsula with rain probabilities climbing to near climo by the end of the period. With an onshore flow from the G.O.M., expect max. temperatures in the mid to upper 80's along the west coast, around 90 inland and low to mid 90's east coast. Min. Temperatures should range from low to mid 70's west coast and mid 60's to around 70 elsewhere.
