Published 12/31/02 5:45 PM EST

At 5:40 pm EST I'm watching the most intense bow echo squall line of thunderstorms, that I've seen since the F 3-4 tornado outbreak that occurred here in Florida in February 1998, with the last El Nino. This line is moving east at 50 mph, with 4 obvious tornado signatures, the nearest headed for Tarpon Springs. Straight line winds of 75-100 mph, large hail and very intense lightning are associated with this line. It's outflow has also spawned a weaker line of thunderstorms just ahead of itself, that is just now coming ashore in the Tampa bay area. Hopefully this advance line of thunderstorms will borrow energy so to speak and weaken the main severe line before it can do it's damage.

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Published 12/31/02 11:00 AM EST

This will likely be my last weather discussion post of 2002, unless I see something dramatically change for the worse with our incoming severe weather event. I wish all a happy and prosperous Near Year in 2003.

The squall line of severe thunderstorms which was located along the Gulf Coast of Texas at 11:00 PM last night is now entering the eastern Gulf Of Mexico and crossing the western Florida Panhandle! The line has a very impressive lightning signature and is moving eastward at approximately 40 mph and will arrive along the west coast of Florida by late afternoon. Winds ahead of the squall are from the SE-SW gusting to 35-45 mph, as moisture is increasing rapidly at all levels of the atmosphere. This stiff surface wind will liekly create coastal flooding later in the day! We have also seen a huge jump in temperature in the past 24 hours, from the mid 20's to mid 30's yesterday morning to mid and upper 70's this late morning. We are also seeing a huge 24 hour pressure fall so far from 30.36" at 11:00 AM yesterday, down to 29.94" at 11:00 AM this morning, with the surface pressure expected to bottom out somewhere in the mid 29.70's range.

Looking at the severe weather indices, our CAPE is low at the moment and the LI of -1 and expected to drop to -2 to -3, unimpressive indices. However the helicity is 400+ and expected to rise to 500 later in the day. We also hae a low level S-SW jet of of 60-70 mph, both indices very bad.

This all ads up to a rough evening with intense lightning, high straight line winds, large hail, tornadoes and excessive rainfall and flooding probable. Many areas will likely see their December 2002 rainfal totals exceed the El Nino record totals of December 1997!!!

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January 2003 Outlook Published 12/30/02 11:00 PM EST

I get MANY emails every day concerning my daily weather discussion and most are very positive and compliment my accuracy, which is actually less then it once was due to time constraints and a lack of resources. Others just seeking accurate weather forecasts and outlooks ask why I am so technical in my explanations. The answer to that question is that we are the "Florida Meteorological and Climatic Institute", so this is and educational endeavor. I also get a some nasty ones telling me that I'm reckless to so brazenly attempt to forecast weather events 2-4 weeks ahead, especially with weather outlooks that can affect the decision making of the movers and shakers of our national economy. Then when I turn out correct I never hear from them again.

As I've been doing this for 30+ years this is old hat to me and the reason for my high accuracy rate is that I do not regurgitate model output statistics. I look upstream at what's actually going on at the moment (I call this looking out the window), I use our collective understanding of the laws of physics involving fluids and also use teleconnections, a rarely used technique. Unfortunately if your meteorological education is limited to a university degree in Meteorology only, most graduates are ill prepared for accurate weather forecasting but a more rounded education via the military, in operational aviation and marine weather forecasting, gives one a big edge in the civilian weather forecasting market.

If you paid me some $$$ you would be shocked at my accuracy rate. However the miracle of this Internet and World Wide Web, that makes the timely gathering of raw weather forecasting data, it's interpretation and then dissemination into accurate weather outlooks like on this website, also makes "free" and easily accessed but ironically mostly inaccurate weather forecasts readily available to the general public, industry and agriculture. The short sighted bean counters would rather pay for expensive crop insurance, then accurate weather forecasts and preventive measures and the insurance companies laugh all the way to the bank, as demand for "accurate" fee driven private weather forecasts and outlooks whither away.

So I once again want to remind all that the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and inexact science. These not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, "are for educational purposes only" and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Now to the January 2003 weather outlook. Colder then normal like November and December 2002.

As I've mentioned so many times recently in order to drive home and important point, we are seeing a moderate El Nino ocean temperature anomaly this time around. This means colder weather then with a strong El Nino, such as we had in 1997-98. True to form we are seeing this colder then normal winter so far, as well as very wet. However at the same time, in theory it is possible that we could escape without a serious crop damaging freeze event this season due to the El Nino. Why? Because the El Nino enhanced subtropical jet stream acts to prevent the polar jet from developing the required sharp latitudinal 500 mb longwave trough depth, necessary for serious freeze events. And idea that government and even some private weather forecasters bit on for the 2002-2003 winter season.

A wrench in the gears of this concept, is that a moderate El Nino can and does fade somewhat in and intermittent and unpredictable manner, through out the winter season. This occurrence allows for increasing chances of crop damaging freeze probabilities in 10-14 day increments.

Looking down the road, teleconnections signals say that the first 10 days of January 2003 should be colder and wetter then normal, but with chances of a widespread crop threatening freeze at less then 50%, thanks to El Nino. However big changes will occur by day 11. The El Nino enhanced subtropical jet will weaken (+SOI) temporarily, ending the endless parade of low latitude cool and wet winter storms, as the Pacific North American jet stream pattern (PNA) once again develops, as a big ridge in the western U.S. and deep trough in the eastern U.S., in conjunction with a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO). Also let's don't forget the high pressure ridge thumb in the Caspian Sea region of Asia. All of these telleconnections patterns mean cross polar flow transfer of Arctic air from Siberian Russia into the eastern 2/3's of Canada and the U.S. and into Florida.

End result for Florida is a probable significant crop threatening freeze event or two probable between the 11th and 22nd. Thereafter we return to a warmer but still below normal temperature wise wet El Nino pattern for the remainder of the month.

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Published Monday 12/30/02 11:00 AM EST

As I forecasted the subfreezing line extended down to approximately I-4 early this morning in inland rural areas of the central peninsula. The cold spot in the state was 26 deg. at East Nobleton on the central peninsula. The cold spot across the north was 29 deg. at Alachua, with the cold spot across the southern peninsula at Immokalee and multiple other locations with 40 deg.

Other notable minimum temperatures on the central peninsula include 28 deg. at Brooksville, Inverness, and Mount Plymouth, 29 deg. at San Antonio and Knights Station (North Plant City) and 31 deg. with a heavy frost here in rural west Plant City, east of Tampa,

We are now seeing a rapid warm up today into the 70's ahead of the next El Nino enhanced winter storm, which arrives late Tuesday 12/31/02 and lasts into New Years Day Wednesday 01/01/03. This means yet another round of widespread heavy flooding rainfall and severe thunderstorms probable for the state's already water logged river basins. Speaking of severe weather this next system has a good potential for tornadoes, large hail and high straight line winds.

December 2002 will close out with the month mean temperature at least 5 deg. below normal and I expect January 2003 to also be very cold, with a significant crop threatening freeze probable into the second week of the month. I will elaborate on my January 2003 weather outlook in further detail later today or tomorrow.

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Published Sunday 12/29/02 11:00 AM EST

I misjudged the speed at which our cold surface high pressure ridge moved east overnight. Most of this season we have had and El Nino enhanced fast moving jet stream that has aided in moving our endless parade of cold surface high pressure eastward at a fast clip. This time however I overlooked the development of the interrelated mid level thumb ridge, which allowed the surface high to move slower. End end result was a 25-30 mph boundary level wind that allowed occasional mixing down to the surface, resulting in a cyclical rise and fall of surface winds of 1-3, mph that interfered with the strengthening of the surface level temperature inversion and slowed the temperature fall.

Bottom line though is that this morning still dawned as the coldest of the season with mid 20's deep into the south central citrus growing region, with the subfreezing line deep into the inland rural southern peninsula. The cold spot in the state was on the south central peninsula with 23 deg. at Venus, which is located WNW of Lake Okeechobee. The cold spot across the north was 27 deg. at Crestview, with Immokalee the cold spot across the southern peninsula with 34 deg.

Other notable minimum temperatures on the central peninsula include 24 deg. at East Nobleton, 25 deg. at Brooksville and Inverness, 26 deg. at San Antonio, 27 deg. at Mount Plymouth and Archbold, 28 deg. at Knights Station, Ocala and Lady Lake and 30 deg. with a heavy frost here in rural West Plant City, east of Tampa.

As is usually the case except in severe freeze events, virtually all urban reporting stations on the peninsula had minimum temperatures above freezing. Lakeland had 33 deg., Jacksonville and Orlando had 34 deg., Melbourne 37 deg., Tampa and Fort Myers 40 deg. and Miami 53 deg.

Tonight will be another cold one though warmer then last night due to airmass modification. The subfreezing line should extend down to approximately I-4 for early Monday morning 12/30/02.

Then we will see a rapid warm up on Monday afternoon, as yet another El Nino enhanced winter storm arrives during the early day Tuesday 12/31/02 and lasts into New Years Day Wednesday 01/01/03. This means yet another round of widespread heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms possible for the state's already water logged river basins.

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Published Saturday 12/28/02 11:00 AM EST

Another cold morning in Florida with the coldest reading of 24 deg. found at Crestview in the panhandle north. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 32 deg. at east Nobleton, with Ortona coming in at 41 deg. on the southern peninsula.

Cold air advection or better yet dry air advection continues behind the latest 500 mb shortwave trough and surface cold front on a north wind, with dewpoints in the low to mid 20's north, mid to upper 20's central and low 30's south. It looks like we will see perfect radiational cooling conditions tonight, best of the season so far. With the cold surface high pressure center axis west of the state this morning and with it's center expected to be directly over the central peninsula by late tonight it's going to be a cold one. With calm winds, clear skies and low dewpoints, temperatures should crash at a rate of 10-15 deg. per hour for the first 2-3 hours and then a slow steady fall through out the night until sunrise.

For early Sunday morning 12/29/02 I would expect a hard freeze across inland rural areas of the north, the north central, as well as the coldest locations of the central peninsula, a moderate to light freeze across the inland rural central and south central peninsula and near freezing to a light across inland rural areas of the southern peninsula. Minimum temperatures for early Monday morning 12/30/02 will also be cold but warmer then Sunday morning, as a moderating onshore NE flow should kick in by or after local midnight.

We begin a big warm up on Monday, as yet another El Nino enhanced winter storm arrives during the early day Tuesday 12/31/02 and lasts into New Years Day Wednesday 01/01/03. This means yet another round of widespread heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms possible for the state's already water logged river basins.

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Published Friday 12/27/02 11:00 AM EST

In what is becoming a bad habit this winter season, the day dawned yet again with below normal temperatures. Once again though lot's of mid and high clouds and some wind acted to hold minimum temperatures up, with the sub freezing line to near S.R. 48 on the central peninsula for early this morning 12/27/02. The cold spot early this morning was 26 deg. in Crestview on the panhandle north. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 32 deg. at East Nobleton. The cold spot in the south was 41 deg. at Ortona.

During the day today we will have yet another 500 mb shortwave trough quickly sweep through the state, with it's attendant surface cold front and another round of cold air advection. This will result in and advection (windy) freeze reaching down to approximately S.R. 50 for early Saturday morning 12/28/02.

Skies should finally clear out on Saturday, as the coldest air of the season continues to invade the state on a brisk NW-N wind. Maximum temperatures on Saturday will struggle to reach 60 deg. across the central peninsula, Early Sunday morning 12/29/02 should dawn with the coldest temperatures of the winter season, as we see a radiational cooling freeze into the inland rural areas of the Everglades region of the southern peninsula.

We begin a warm up on Sunday afternoon and into Monday 12/20/02, as yet another El Nino enhanced winter storm arrives during the day Monday and lasts into New Years Eve Tuesday 12/31/02. This means yet another round of widepread heavy rainfall and thunderstorms for the state's already water logged river basins and rivers already above flood stage.

Looking further down the road, teleconnections signals say that the first 10 days of January 2003 should be colder and wetter then normal, but with chances of a widespread crop threatening freeze at less then 50%, thanks to El Nino.

As I've mentioned so many times recently, we are seeing a moderate El Nino ocean temperature anomaly this time around. This means colder weather then with a strong El Nino, as we had in 1997-98. True to form we are seeing this colder then normal winter so far. However at the same time it is possible that we could escape without a serious crop damaging freeze event this season due to the El Nino. Why? Because the El Nino enhanced subtropical jet stream acts to prevent the polar jet from developing the required sharp latitudinal 500 mb longwave trough, necessary for serious cold weather events. A wrench in the gears on this idea is that a moderate El Nino can and does fade somewhat in and intermittent and unpredictable manner, increasing the damaging freeze probabilities.

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Published Thursday 12/26/02 11:00 AM EST

Quite a swing in barometric pressure during the past three days here in not so warm and sunny Florida. Here in rural west Plant City east of Tampa the barometric pressure was 30.27" on Monday 12/23, 29.74" on Tuesday-Wednesday 12/24-25 and now 30.30" on Thursday 12/26!

It's a cold late morning with temperatures struggling to reach 40 deg. north, 50 deg. central and 60 deg. south by 12:00 noon, under mostly cloudy skies with cold air advection on a gusty and dry NW-N wind. The cold spot early this morning was 28 deg. in Crestview on the panhandle north. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 32 deg. at East Nobleton and Scottsmoor. The cold spot in the south was 42 deg. at Clewiston and La Belle.

As is common during and El Nino event, we have a strong and progressive (fast moving) zonal mid and upper jet stream flow, with a jet max. of 210 mph over the SE U.S. This means lot's of mid and high clouds and wind during the next 48 hours. This will act to limit the sub freezing line to near S.R. 50 on the central peninsula for early Friday morning 12/27/02.

During the day Friday we will have yet another 500 mb shortwave trough quickly sweep through the state, with it's attendant surface cold front and another round of cold air advection. This will result in and advection (windy) freeze reaching down to approximately I-4 for early Saturday morning 12/28/02.

Skies should finally clear out on Saturday, as the coldest air of the season continues to invade the state on a brisk NW-N wind. Maximum temperatures on Saturday will struggle to reach 50 deg. across the central peninsula, Early Sunday morning 12/29/02 should dawn with the coldest temperatures of the winter season, as we see a radiational cooling freeze into the inland rural areas of the Everglades region of the southern peninsula.

We begin a warm up on Sunday afternoon and into Monday 12/20/02, as yet another El Nino enhanced winter storm arrives during the day Monday and lasts into New Years Eve Tuesday 12/31/02. This means yet another round of widepread heavy rainfall and thunderstorms for the state's already water logged river basins and rivers already above flood stage.

Looking further down the road, teleconnections signals say that the first 10 days of January 2003 should be colder and wetter then normal, but with chances of a widespread crop threatening freeze at less then 50%, thanks to El Nino.

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Published Thursday 12/26/02 12:00 AM EST

Quite a cool down here in Florida during the past 24 hours. Here in rural west Plant City east of Tampa, the temperature dropped from 71 deg. at 12:00 AM 12/25/02 to 39 deg. at 12:00 AM 12/26/02, on NW winds of 20-40 mph! The barometer has risen from 29.74" to 30.18". It's going to be a cold four day period with a subfreezing temperature threat every morning!

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Published Wednesday 12/25/02 11:00 AM EST

Quite a severe weather outbreak across the deep south in the past 24 hours from Texas to Florida and Georgia. Tentatlveley At least 24 tornadoes touched down with at least 12 injuries and many more reports of large hail and straight line wind damage. Actually all things considered the region got off fairly easy.

During the bad weather period, here in rural west Plant City east of Tampa I observed the barometric pressure fall from 30.24 to 29.74", also the temperature jumped from 59 to 71 deg. during the overnight hours of the 24th, as the squall line approached.

The central peninsula of Florida has seen widespread excessive rainfall in the past 24 hours yet again. Totals ranged between 1-4", with a large swath of 2-3". Here in rural west Plant City east of Tampa I measured 2.85". That brings my December 2002 total up to 12.07" and the year total to 82.00"! Unfortunately nearly every river basin in the state is saturated, with every river at or above flood stage. With 3 more months of El Nino enhanced rainfall possible, this El Nino rainfall anomaly of 2002-2003 may exceed the previous record rainfall event from the El Nino 1997-1998.

Looks like we will be closing out December 2002 on a very cold note, ensuring that December 2002 will be considerably colder then normal, like November 2002.

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Published Monday 12/23/02 11:00 AM EST

Yet another cold morning dawned in the sunshine state. The cold spot was 31 deg. at East Nobleton on the central peninsula. Looks like December will go down in the record books as colder then normal just like November 2002. I wonder what January 2003 holds?!

Another widespread heavy rainfall event with possible severe weather is still on track for Tuesday-Wednesday 12/24-25/2002, with a lesser second blow coming on Thursday-Friday 12/26-27/02. This could be a serious excessive rainfall event across and already saturated watershed that has seen 10-15" of rainfall so far this month, with standing water in many locations and some rivers already above flood stage. This last rainfall event may push December 2002 ahead of December 1997 as the wettest December in the record books!

Also as I posted late yesterday evening, I can't think of anything worse at Christmas then a death and destruction severe weather outbreak. It looks possible from east Texas and Arkansas eastward through the deep south to the east coast during the next 48 hours. This will then be followed by unpleasant ice and snowfall conditions up the east coast from the Mid Atlantic region into New England.

Unfortunately the GFS forecast model regurgitators are asleep at the wheel on this winter storm event. In my opinion all of the models are clueless as to the intensity of the impending severe weather and snowfall depth potential.

It looks as though the last full week of 2002 will run 10-15 deg. below normal, ensuring a significantly cold December 2002 for the record books. It also looks like the coldest weather of the season will arrive by Saturday-Sunday 12/28-29/02 with a tender crop threatening freeze possible into inland rural areas of the northern Everglades district of the southern peninsula. We are looking at minimum temperatures 20-25 deg. below normal during the weekend, with warmer urban and suburban locations on the central peninsula seeing their first sub-freezing temperatures of the season.

City folks do not realize that inland rural areas of the central peninsula north of I-4 and west of the Ronald Reagan Florida Turnpike, have seen repeated sub freezing temperature events in November and December 2002.

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Published Sunday 12/22/02 11:00 AM EST

Another cold morning dawned in the sunshine state. The cold spot was 30 deg. at MacClenny in the north and at East Nobleton on the central peninsula. The subfreezing line dipped down to around S.R. 50 west of U.S. 27, with Brooksville at 31 deg. Here in rural west Plant City east of Tampa it was 39 deg. The temperature fell rapidly after sunset on the order of 20 deg. in the first two hours but then only fell another 2 deg. after midnight, as the modifying NE flow kicked in. Looks like December will go down in the record books as colder then normal just like November 2002. I wonder what January 2003 holds?!

Another widespread heavy rainfall event with possible severe weather is still on track for Tuesday-Wednesday 12/24-25/2002, with a second blow coming on Thursday- Friday 12/26-27/02. This could be a serious excessive rainfall event across and already saturated watershed that has seen 10-15" of rainfall so far this month, with standing water in many locations and some rivers already above flood stage. This last rainfall event may push December 2002 ahead of December 1997 as the wettest December in the rainfall record books!

It still also looks like the coldest weather of the season will arrive by Saturday 12/28/02 with a crop threatening freeze possible into New Years Day 2003.

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Published Saturday 12/21/02 11:00 AM EST

The driest airmass of the season has spread across the state, with a precipitable water of only 0.13" at Tampa and dewpoints in the low to mid 20's deep into the peninsula.

The cold spot in the state early this morning was 27 deg. at Crestview in the panhandle north. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 30 at East Nobleton on the central peninsula, with Immokalee and South Bay the cold spots on the southern peninsula at 44 deg.

As I forecasted the subfreezing line extended down to S.R. 50 and I-4 this morning, with Brooksville at 31 deg. and Mt. Plymouth at 32 deg. Here in rural west Plant City east of Tampa it was 35 deg. with a little frost.

With such a dry airmass over the state, tonight's minimum temperatures would be the coldest of the season, with mid 20's into inland the rural south central peninsula. However with a fast moving zonal steering flow the cold surface high pressure center is already on the longitude of 82 deg. W and should introduce a warmer and more moist NE flow over the peninsula sometime after midnight.

With low dew points, clear skies and calm winds after sunset, I would expect temperatures to crash to near or below freezing in inland rural areas north of I-4 before the NE wind kicks in.

It looks like a strong and rapid warm up beginning on Monday 12/23/02 and continuing into early Tuesday morning 12/24/02, as a warm front moves north across the peninsula. This warm front and other dynamics tied to the El Nino enhanced sub tropical jet stream, will be the focal point for a widespread and heavy rainfall event once again, until the cold front sweeps through the state on on Wednesday Christmas Day 12/25/02. Severe weather is also possible.

We return to colder weather once again after the cold frontal passage on Christmas Day.

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Published Friday 12/20/02 11:00 AM EST

Ahead of the cold front we saw quite a warm day yesterday with high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 70's north, mid 70's to near 80 central and low 80's south. The warm spot was 83 deg. at Naples on the southern peninsula. Here in rural west Plant City I recorded a maximum temperature of 79 deg.

For the second time this month I underestimated and El Nino enhanced winter storm. Late last night I expected the pre frontal squall line to weaken as it left the loop current, crossed the cold shelf waters and moved into the relatively dry and stable atmosphere over the state. Precipitable water was low at 0.39" yesterday morning but did jump to 1.31" by yesterday evening.

Looking at IR and WV satellite images late last evening the squall line did appear to weaken as expected and the system seemed to be lacking the EL Nino enhanced subtropical jet stream moisture feed that previous storms had. In any event that moisture feed did get tapped overnight with a PW of 1.92" this morning, as temperatures climbed over night from the upper 50's to low 70's with a 40 kt 850 mb jet.

The end result was a strengthening squall line with strong to isolated severe thunderstorms raking the peninsula early this morning and continuing through the day. Looking at the 10:00 AM EST satellite and radar images shows the squall line extending from east of Savannah, GA SW to Melbourne and then just west of the western tip of Cuba! Here in Plant City I measured 1.10" of rainfall early this morning, bringing my December total to 10.22", second only to the 15.71" that fell in the December 1997 with the last record breaking El Nino.

Now for the colder weather once again. We should see the subfreezing line drop in inland rural areas to near S.R. 50 and I-4 for early Saturday morning 12/21/02 and possibly as far south as S.R. 60 and the Ronald Reagan Florida Turnpike for early Sunday morning 12/22/02.

A secondary cold front will sweep through the state on Monday 12/23/02 ensuring slightly cooler then normal weather through Christmas Eve morning 12/24/02. Yet another cold front will arrive for Christmas Day 12/25/02, with better chances of a more widespread heavy rainfall and possible severe thunderstorms for late the 24th into the 25th. Unfortunately it could be a very soggy Christmas Day. Colder weather arrives once again after the rain event, with colder to cooler then normal weather expected for the balance of 2002.

Taking a look once again at longer range forecast teleconnection patterns, it looks like a positive PNA pattern (Pacific North America or Positive Negative), a slightly negative to neutral AO pattern (Arctic Oscillation) and a negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation. It also still looks like we will see the Caspian Sea region high pressure ridge pop up. This all adds up to cross polar Arctic air flow from Siberian Russia into Canada and the eastern 2/3d's of the U.S. around New Years Day +/- a couple of days.

Like November 2002, December 2002 will end up considerably colder and wetter then normal with repeated sub freezing temperatures into the inland rural central peninsula.

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Published Thursday 12/19/02 11:00 AM EST

Well we finally are seeing a short period of warm weather and it feels pretty good. The cold spot yesterday morning 12/18/02 was 35 deg. at Tallahassee in the panhandle region, the cold spot this morning was 44 deg. in East Nobleton, both on the central peninsula.

Maximum temperatures yesterday reached the low 70's to low 80's from north to south and today we will see similar or even warmer temperatures, with increasing low level moisture on a SE wind.

For Friday 12/20/02 we have a new cold front on the way, preceeded by a line of thunderstorms and rainshowers but severe weather is not expected with this system. This will not be a widespread heavy rainfall event like the previous two. Colder weather arrives for late Friday with minimum temperatures down around the freezing mark in portions of the inland rural central peninsula for Sunday morning 12/22/02.

A secondary cold front will sweep through the state on Monday 12/23/02 ensuring cooler then normal weather through Christmas Eve morning 12/24/02. Yet another cold front will arrive for Christmas Day 12/25/02 with better chances of a more widespread heavy rainfall and possible severe thunderstorms. Unfortunately it could be a very soggy Christmas Day. Colder weather arrives once again after the rain event, with colder to cooler then normal weather expected for the balance of 2002.

Taking a look once again at longer range forecast teleconnection patterns, it looks like a positive PNA pattern (Pacific North America or Positive Negative), a slightly negative to neutral AO pattern (Arctic Oscillation) and a negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation. It also still looks like we will see the Caspian Sea region high pressure ridge pop up. This all adds up to cross polar Arctic air flow from Siberian Russia into Canada and the eastern 2/3d's of the U.S. around New Years Day +/- a couple of days.

For Florida that could mean the coldest weather so far this winter season, with a crop threatening freeze. However a crop threatening freeze is not written in stone, as the very active and swift moving El Nino enhanced subtropical jet stream would have to phase with the polar jet stream, in order to allow the bulk of the Arctic air to enter the state. However though some shallow Arctic air could still slip southward into the state under SW or zonal mid level flow.

January 2003 is a real tough call. So far this winter season we have seen a repeated cycle of 10-14 days of below normal temperature followed by 2-4 days with near normal or slightly above normal temperature. If this pattern holds into 2003 then the second and third weeks of the month will be colder then normal. This is the period that traditionally brings Florida it's worst freeze events.

Our present El Nino pattern ocean temperature anomaly pattern will continue to strengthen in January 2003. Once again though this a moderate El Nino this time around, similar to 1969-70, 1976-77 and 1978-79, when the state saw devastating freeze events, not the cool to mild and extremely wet 1997-98.

The government and even some private weather forecasters are calling for a warmer then normal first half of January 2003 or even a warmer then normal month period. I think this is in error. But because El Nino is involved my confidence in a cold January is not real high at this moment.

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Published Tuesday 12/17/02 11:00 AM EST

The cold surface high pressure center axis that was located NW of Florida yesterday moved SE overnight to a position over the southern peninsula. This common event allowed for the coldest minimum temperatures to occur over the southern 2/3's of the peninsula.

The cold spot in the state this morning was 26 deg. East Nobleton on the north central peninsula and also at Venus on the south central peninsula. Here in rural west Plant City east of Tampa it was 34 deg. with frost, with 31 deg. at nearby Knights Station. The cold spot across the north was 29 deg. at Bell. The cold spot on the southern peninsula was 35 deg. at South Bay. Other notable temperatures include 29 deg. at Brooksville and Mount Plymouth and 30 deg. at Archbold.

We face one more chilly night with minimum temperatures 5-10 deg. warmer then this morning, followed by a big warming trend Wednesday-Friday 12/18-20/02. High temperatures should soar well into the 70's during this period. Rain chances return on Friday with the next cold front, with colder weather once again for the period Saturday-Tuesday 12/21-24/02. Yet another round of rainfall then colder weather will also occur on Tuesday-Wednesday 12/24-25/02. As I first mentioned on Saturday 12/14/02, the last full week of 2002 looks to be a cold one, with a crop threatening freeze event possible around New Years Day 2003.

By the way during the past 36 day period, 28 days have seen below normal temperature!

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Published Monday 12/16/02 5:00 PM EST

The mid level vorticity center in the NE Gulf Of Mexico did impact surface flow across the peninsula, backing it to and WNW-NW onshore flow. This acted to modify the dry air as it mixed down to the surface. Inland areas saw dewpoints in the upper 20's to low 30's instead of my mid to upper 20's forecast.

In any event tonight will still be a cold one with the subfreezing line dipping into the inland rural south central peninsula/northern Everglades citrus growing region, with frost as far south as Immokalee. Minimum temperatures between 28-32 deg, can be expected in the inland citrus growing areas.

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Published Monday 12/16/02 11:00 AM EST

Yes yet another cold morning dawned in Florida, as a matter of fact the southern peninsula saw the coldest minimum temperatures so far this winter season. The subfreezing line dipped south into the inland rural south central peninsula, further south then I forecasted.

The cold spot in the state this morning was 26 deg. at East Nobleton on the central peninsula. The cold spot across the north was 27 deg. at Quincy. The cold spot across the south was 35 deg. at Immokalee. Here in rural west Plant City east of Tampa it was 32 deg. with frost.

Some other notable minimum temperatures include 27 deg. at Venus and 29 deg. at Archbold, in the south central peninsula/northern Everglades citrus growing area.

With the cold surface high pressure center axis still west of the peninsula, cold air advection continues today on a NNW-N wind. Dry air mixing down to the surface this afternoon will allow dewpoints to crash into the mid to upper 20's in inland areas of the peninsula. With a calm to very light north drainage wind down the peninsula tonight, in conjunction with low dewpoints and clear skies, minimum temperatures for Wednesday morning 12/17/02 should be as cold if not a little colder then this morning. The subfreezing line should dip southward into the inland rural south central peninsula/northern Everglades citrus growing region, with frost as far south as Immokalee. Minimum temperatures between 26-30 deg, can be expected.

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Published Sunday 12/15/02 11:00 AM EST

Dawn broke this morning with cold temperatures in the sunshine state. The cold spot was in the NW panhandle with 24 deg. at Crestview. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 36 deg at Inverness and East Nobleton. The cold spot on the southern peninsula was 44 deg. at South Bay. Here in rural west Plant City east of Tampa it was 41 deg.

With overcast to broken cirrostratus/cirrus overhead and continued cold air advection, high temperatures will not reach 50 deg. north, 60 central and 70 south today. Our cloud shield courtesy of the stoked up subtropical jet stream will slowly evaporate and sink south as the day wears on.

Clearing skies in conjunction with light winds will set the stage for a cold early Monday morning 12/16/02. The subfreezing line should reach the I-4 corridor in inland rural areas, with similar low temperatures possible on Tuesday morning 12/17/02.

We will see a slow warming trend thereafter, with increasing rain chances for Thursday- Friday 12/19-20/02. Speaking or rain, I observed quite a bit of flooding and standing water through Hillsborough, Pasco and Hernando Counties yesterday! After a very wet summer, and El Eino induced wet winter will create a serious flooding situation!!!

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Published Saturday 12/14/02 7:00 AM EST

Looks like a chilly day is in store here in the un-sunshine state today with temperatures hovering in the low to mid 50's under cloudy skies with a brisk NW wind. The Cirrostratus overcast is courtesy of the El Nino stoked up 175 mph sub tropical jetstream overhead.

Beginning back on 12/9/02 I started talking about colder weather arriving in Florida during the last week of the year. Well tentatively Christmas Eve and Day may be rainy followed by MUCH colder weather. Models are pointing to a 5-10 day period with strong blocking high pressure ridging in the vicinity of the Caspian Sea region of Asia. That translates to a deep trough in the eastern U.S. that would open the door for the over the North Pole Siberian express motherlode of bitter Arctic air into Florida for around New Years Day.

I don't have much personal faith in numeric weather forecasting models for medium and long range weather forecasting so let's hope they are wrong. However good old fashioned synoptic analysis (a dying art) and knowledge of medium range teleconnection patterns guarantee a cold last week of the year. Buy crop insurance folks!

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Published Friday 12/13/02 11:00 AM EST

I just love El Nino winters, with all the excessive rains! Our fledgling wet winter is coming on the heels of a very wet summer. Here in rural west Plant City I measured 45.07" of rainfall between June 1st and September 30th. Through November 30th the yearly rainfall total was 70.03". As of today the yearly rainfall total is now 79.15".

Speaking of rainfall, the central peninsula was once again lashed with heavy to excessive rainfall in the past 24 hours. Totals ranged from 1-5.00", with 2-4.00" widespread. Here in west Plant City I measured another 1.70" of rainfall, on top of yesterday's 1.35" for a storm total 3.05" of rain. This comes on the heels of 4.17" that fell here on the 9-10th and 1.88" on the 5-6th. My December rainfall total is now 9.12".

At 6:00 AM EST this morning my location was lashed with straight line winds of 60-75 mph. Also I measured a 24 hour barometric pressure drop 0.36", 30.21" to 29.85". It appears that the rain cooled lower atmosphere once again snuffed out any widespread severe weather outbreak.

There was one tornado warning in Pasco County at approximately 4:30 AM and some reports of straight line wind damage. Also a confirmed F0 tornado in Indian River County that did cause structural damage and one injury.

Severe weather including tornadoes is still probable over the southern 1/3 of the peninsula today, where more instability is waiting to be tapped, not to mention helicity values in excess of 500.

The cold front should sweep through the state late this afternoon, ushering in colder weather. High temperatures for Saturday 12/14/02 will struggle to top 50 deg. across the north, 60 central and 70 south. The subfreezing line may once again dip southward into the inland rural areas of the west central and north central peninsula on Sunday morning 12/15/02, say down to I-4.

Looking further down the road temperatures should stay near normal to below normal for much of next week.

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Published Thursday 12/12/02 10:00 PM

Ahead of the northward moving warm front most of the west central and central peninsula saw 1-3.00" rainfall totals today. Here in Plant City east of Tampa I measured 1.35" with some thunder. Through December 12th I have now received 7.42" of rain. As of 10:00 pm the warm front is now on a Tarpon Springs to Cape Canaveral line. Here in Plant City the temperature has jumped from 58 to 64 deg. in the past hour and should rise slowly through out the night.

As I said early this morning it appears that we have a good chance for severe weather with this El Nino enhanced winter storm. Best locations and approximate times would be 3:00-9:00 AM for the north central peninsula, 5:00-11:00 AM for the central peninsula and 7:00 AM-1:00 PM for the south central peninsula. All the atmospheric dynamics are in place for a serious severe weather outbreak across the peninsula, including hurricane force straight line winds and tornadoes.

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Published Thursday 12/12/02 7:00 AM

It appears that we have a better chance for severe weather with this latest incoming El Nino enhanced winter storm. Best location and time would be the south central and central peninsula on Friday morning 12/13/02. More to come later this morning.

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Published Wednesday 12/11/02 11:00 AM EST

We had quite a temperature contrast across the central peninsula yesterday thanks to a slow northward moving warm front. The axis of the warm front was on and approximate latitude of S.R. 50 before it stalled, with 50's and 60's to it's north and 70's and 80's on the south side.

Early this morning a weak cold front swept through the central peninsula with some light rain showers in tow. For the balance of the day we should experience weak (CAA) cold air advection on a north wind under partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid 60's to near 70. Wind direction will rapidly swing around to NE overnight in response to the next El Nino enhanced winter storm.

The next El Nino enhanced winter storm will begin arriving during Thursday afternoon 12/12/02 and continue into Friday afternoon 12/13/02. Our present synoptic weather pattern is still very complicated with a progressive (fast moving) jet stream pattern. Once again we will see extra-tropical low pressure system development in the NE Gulf Of Mexico, a strong 500 mb shortwave trough WNW-NW of the peninsula, diving SE through the main long wave trough, and ENE moving cold core mid and upper level low across the deep south, diffluence, divergence, isentropic lift, plus a very moist feed out of the eastern Pacific Ocean, courtesy of the El Nino enhanced subtropical jet stream. We also see high precipitable water amounts, excessive helicity and vorticity.

This all adds up to excessive flooding rainfall potential and a moderate probability of severe weather including tornadoes across the peninsula. Any severe weather will most likely be in the vicinity of the warm front as it moves north across the peninsula late tonight and tomorrow. Once again lack of low level instability due to darkness and heavy cloud cover should help to limit the severe weather potential.

Colder weather will begin arriving late Friday 12/13/02, with minimum temperatures dipping into the 30's across inland rural north and west central areas on Sunday morning 12/15/02. As mentioned previously, looking even further down the road the crop threatening freeze potential begins to increase again by Monday 12/23/02, with the last week of the month and year looking very cold at this moment.

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Published Tuesday 12/10/02 11:00 AM EST

WOW! What and EL Nino enhanced widespread excessive rain event for the peninsula during the past 24 hours. The northern peninsula saw 1.00-2.00" of rainfall. The central peninsula saw 2.00-8.00" of rainfall, with most areas seeing 3.00-5.00". The southern peninsula saw 2.00-6.00". Here in Plant City east of Tampa I measured 4.17", 6.07" for the month.

The next EL Nino enhanced winter storm will arrive early Friday 12/13/02, with a return to colder weather by Tuesday 12/17/02.

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Published Monday 12/09/02 11:00 AM EST

With clouds, wind and rain around holding temperature up, we can finally say that the cold weather is gone for now. The cold spot in the state this morning was 43 deg. in Cross City on the north peninsula.

Our present synoptic weather pattern is very complicated. We have a developing surface extra-tropical low pressure system WSW of Key West with it's attendant northward moving warm front draped across the southern peninsula. To the south of the warm front temperatures are approaching 80 deg. with SE-SW winds. Temperatures north of the warm front are in the 70's with and east wind. Further north we have a trough of low pressure from near Cape Canaveral SW to Venice. North of this boundary temperatures are in the low to mid 60's and with a NE wind. With decent isentropic lift across the west central peninsula we are seeing steady moderate to heavy rainfall. Here in Plant City east of Tampa I have recorded 1.07" of rain through 11:00 AM. We also have 500 mb shortwave trough W-NW of the peninsula, and eastward moving cold core mid and upper level cutoff low over coastal Texas and it's associated divergence plus a moisture feed out of the eastern Pacific Ocean, courtesy of the El Nino enhanced subtropical jet stream. We also have a precipitable water amount of 1.75"+, a helicity value of 350+ and ETA model progged to exceed 500 across the central and north peninsula during the next 24 hours.

This all adds up to excessive rainfall potential and a moderate probability of severe weather including tornadoes across the peninsula. Any severe weather will most likely be in the vicinity of the warm front as it moves north across the peninsula today and tonight. Fortunately a lack of low level instability due to darkness should help to limit the severe weather potential. The worst of the weather should be during the overnight hours into early Tuesday morning 12/10/02.

Cooler weather arrives early on Wednesday 12/11/02 and will last through Thursday 12/12/02, as yet another El Nino enhanced winter storm arrives from the west during the Friday-Saturday 12/13-14/02 time frame. Looking even further down the road the freeze threat begins to increase again by Monday 12/23/02, with the last week of the month and year looking very cold at this moment.

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Published Sunday 12/08/02 11:00 AM EST

The cold spot in the state this morning was 28 deg. at Crestview in the NW panhandle.

For today expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with high temps. in the 60's north, 70's central and near 80 south. With surface wind direction out of the east, low level moisture will be on the increase also.

It looks like a widespread heavy rainfall event for Monday-Tuesday afternoon 12/9-10/02, as the next El Nino enhanced winter storm arrives from the west. Dynamics for a severe weather outbreak will be in place, especially near the warm front as it heads north on the peninsula. Hopefully though isentropic lift in association with the stoked up subtropical jetstream will provide a heavy overcast and remove one of the key ingredients for a severe weather, low level heating.

Cooler weather arrives on Wednesday 12/11/02 and will last through Thursday 12/12/02 but yet another El Nino enhanced winter storm arrives from the west during the Friday-Saturday 12/13-14/02 time frame.

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Published Saturday 12/07/02 11:00 AM EST

The cold spot in the state this morning was 25 deg. at Crestview in the NW panhandle. Also it was quite a cold day yesterday across the north and central areas of the state with 40's into the central peninsula under cloudy, windy, drizzly conditions. Here in Plant City the high temp. yesterday was 67 deg. just past midnight but the afternoon high was only 48 deg. This came 24 hours after a high temperature of 81 deg. ahead of the cold front. The low temp. this morning in Plant City was 42 deg. Brooksville was the cold spot on the central peninsula with 36 deg.

For today expect mostly sunny skies with high temps. in the 50's north, 60's central and 70's south. With surface wind direction already out of the NNE, low temperatures tonight should be no colder then this morning. We see a big warm up for Sunday-Monday 12/08-09/02, with possible severe weather arriving for Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon 12/10/02, as the next El Nino enhanced winter storm arrives from the west. Cooler weather arrives for Wednesday 12/11/02 and will last through Friday 12/13/02.

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Published Friday 12/06/02 11:00 AM EST

The cold spot in the state this morning was 36 deg. at Crestview in the NW panhandle. As I forecasted there was no phasing of the 500 mb shortwave trough/vorticity maximum, however we did see more widespread heavy rainfall totals yesterday evening then I thought would happen. Rainfall totals of 0.75"-2.00" were common across the central peninsula south of S.R. 50 and north of S.R. 68. Here in rural west Plant City I measured 1.88" of rainfall. I made the mistake of underestimating the influence of the El Nino stoked up subtropical jetstream heat and moisture plume. There was also one F0 tornado that touched down near Crystal River in Citrus County. There could also still be some rough weather across the southern peninsula later today.

The cold front has now moved past Fort Myers but with 850 and 500 mb wind flow still from the SW, southward progress of the shallow cold airmass will be slow. The 850 mb trough axis should move east of the state late today, however the 500 mb trough axis will be held up west of the state, as another 500 mb shortwave trough swings through it's base. Speaking of cold it's currently 48 deg. here in west Plant City under cloudy, drizzley, windy conditions. This is 33 deg. colder then yesterday at this time.

For tonight a moderate to hard freeze is expected across the north, with near freezing temperatures across the inland rural north central peninsula and some mid to upper 30's in inland rural areas north of I-4. As this is and El Nino type weather system, clouds and some wind is expected and therefore this will be a warmer event then the last chill.

Another El Nino type winter storm system will sweep through the state on Monday-Tuesday 12/09-10/02, with another round of intense thunderstorms and cool weather for the balance of next week. This El Nino'ish mild to cool and wet period is likely to last through approximately 12/23/02 but the chances of a crop threatening freeze event is low.

The early season winter storm that swept across the southern plains, deep south, mid Atlantic and N.E. U.S. is proof of a moderate El Nino pattern, with plenty of cold weather is in store for the eastern 2/3's of country from Christmas onward into January 2003.

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Published Thursday 12/05/02 11:00 AM EST

WOW what a dramatic warm up on Wednesday afternoon 12/04/02 after 22 days of below normal temperature. High temperatures reached the upper 70's to low 80's. Today we are seeing similar warm temperatures with high humidity ahead of the next weaker cold front.

With no 500 mb shortwave trough phasing west of the state, the rain event for today and early Friday 10/06/02 will not be a widespread soaker. Basically it will be a hit and miss thunderstorm and rainshower situation. However, with a helicity value of 120+, precipitable water of 1.50+", a lifting index of -7 and CAPE of 2500+, some thunderstorms could be locally intense to severe, with isolated tornadoes possible.

The cold front should sweep through the peninsula overnight but the 850 mb trough will not move through until sometime late on Friday. We could see some cool rainshowers for tomorrow, especially early. The colder weather arrives in earnest late Friday but this is a modified CAk airmass and will probably be a little warmer then previous recent cold spells. A moderate to hard freeze is probable across the northern areas of the state though.

Looking down the road we have increasing rain chances again for Monday-Tuesday 12/09-10/02 with yet another cold, front with below normal temperatures for much of next week. However a milder and wet period is possible between December 13th-23rd. The chances of a crop threatening freeze event between 12/06-23/02 is low.

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Published Tuesday 12/03/02 11:00 AM EST

Yet another cold and frosty morning dawned across the sunshine state, with 17 of the last 21 mornings below normal. The tentative cold spot in the state was 29 deg. at East Nobleton on the central peninsula. The cold spot across the north was 30 deg. at Alachua. The cold spot across the south peninsula was 53 deg. at Immokalee and four other locations. The subfreezing line made it down to I-4 with Knights Station at 31 deg. and Plymouth 30 deg. Here in Plant City east of Tampa it was 36 deg. with frost.

Temperatures should be 5-10 deg. warmer for tomorrow morning, with and even more rapid warm up on Wednesday 12/04/02, as temperatures move well into the 70's. Thunderstorm chances increase to 60-80% on Thursday-Friday 12/05-06/02, if the next system phases while west of the state. Colder weather will once again invade the state on Friday 12/06/02.

November 2002 turned out to be colder then normal, possibly the coldest since 1976. The month average here in west Plant City was 5.1 deg. below normal. The first 10 days of December may also turn out to be the coldest since 1976. However a milder and wet period is possible between December 11th-22nd. As I've said previously it is a good idea to make sure that you have adequate crop loss insurance coverage for this winter.

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Published Monday 12/02/02 11:00 AM EST

Yet another cold and frosty morning dawned across the sunshine state, with 16 of the last 20 mornings below normal. The tentative cold spot in the state was 25 deg. at Crestview in the NW peninsula. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 27 deg. at East Nobleton, with Labelle the cold spot on the southern peninsula at 40 deg. The subfreezing line made it down to I-4 with Knights Station at 31 deg. and Plymouth 30 deg. Here in Plant City east of Tampa it was 34 deg. with frost.

With clear skies and low dewpoints currently in place plus expected calm winds, strong radiational cooling will take place tonight over inland rural areas of the north and central peninsula, with similar temperatures tomorrow morning as this morning. We will then see a rapid warm up on Tuesday-Wednesday 12/03-04/02 with temperatures well into the 70's on Wednesday and increasing rain chances on Thursday. Colder weather will once again invade the state on Friday 12/06/02.

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Published Sunday 12/01/02 11:00 AM EST

The tentative cold spot in the state early this morning was Crestview in the NW panhandle at 36 deg. Another cold front is currently sweeping across the peninsula with some light rainshowers. The front is currently at the latitude of Fort Myers.

For tonight we can expect a hard to moderate freeze across the north, a moderate to light freeze across the north central peninsula, with the subfreezing line down to near I-4. A warm up begins on Tuesday 12/03/02 with increasing rain chances on Wednesday-Thursday 12/04-05/02 and colder weather once again by Friday 12/06/02.

By the way at my private weather station here in the rural strawberry fields of west Plant City, November 2002 averaged out at 5.1 deg. below normal, with precipitation at 1.25" above normal.

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Published Saturday 11/30/02 11:00 AM EST

This morning dawned cold once again in the sunshine state. The cold spot in the state was 26 deg. at East Nobleton on the central peninsula, with the subfreezing extending into the inland rural south central peninsula. Here in west Plant City east of Tampa it was 34 deg., with 32 deg. at Knights Station and frost on the ground.

As I surmised, a west wind above the boundary level and some high clouds began moved across the peninsula overnight, 3-4 hours sooner then I expected though! This acted to reduce the severity and duration of the freeze threat, with temperatures becoming steady or rising slightly by 3:00 AM.

We should see a temporary warmup this afternoon, before cold air begins to arrive in the state again on Sunday 12/01/02 with the next cold front, lasting through Tuesday morning 12/03/02. Rain chances increase on Wednesday-Thursday 12/04-05/02.

Looking further down the road, the ever strenghtening El Nino pattern may become more dominant here in Florida for and approximate two week period beginning around 12/04/02. This means milder but wetter weather. This is not written in stone though, as it's very difficult to forecast the interaction of a moderate El Nino with warmer then normal ocean temperatures in the central Pacific much like 1976-77, versus the eastern Pacific in 1997-98.

Some selected minimum temperatures For 11/30/02.
The forecast was for rural inland areas of the state.

Forecast Was-
Panhandle NW/North-
Bronson-
Chipley-
Crestview- 35
De Funiak Springs-31
Jay-
Madison- 31
Marianna-
Monticello-
Perry- 31
Quincy-
Tallahassee- 36

Forecast Was-
Non Panhandle North-
Bell- 28
Glen St. Mary-
Jacksonville- 36
Jasper- 27
Lake City-
Live Oak-
Mayo-
Middleburg- 27
Starke-

Forecast Was-
North Peninsula-
Alachua- 31
Chiefland- 30
Cross City- 32
Gainesville- 34
Hastings-
Lake Butler-
Mayo-
Putnam Hall-

Forecast Was-
North Central Peninsula-
Apopka-
Avalon-
Brooksville East-27
Brooksville South-29
Citra- 31
Inverness- 28
Lady Lake-
Leesburg- 37 (Urban) Nobleton East- 26
Ocala- 32 (Suburban)
Ocklawaha-
Okahumpka-
Orlando Int- 39 (Suburban)
Orlando Ex- 42 (Urban) Pierson-
Plymouth- 29
Tavares-
Umatilla- 31

Forecast Was-
Central Peninsula-
Balm-
Dover- 37
Kissimmee-
Lakeland- (Suburban)
Melbourne- 40 (Urban)
Palm Bay- (Suburban)
Ponce Inlet-
Plant City North (Knights Station)- 32
Plant City West- 34
Plant City- (Urban)
Ruskin- 38
San Antonio- 28
Scottsmoor-
St. Leo-
St. Pete./Clearwater Int- (Urban)
Tampa Int- 42 (Urban)
Tampa East Van- 38 (suburban)

Forecast Was-
South Central Peninsula-
Avon Park- 38
Archbold-
Fort Pierce- 41
Okeechobee-
Ona- 36
Venus- 29
Vero Beach- 40

Forecast Was-
Southern Peninsula/Northern Everglades-
Belle Glade- 41
Clewiston-
Devils Garden-
Punta Gorda- 40
Felda-
Fort Myers Reg- 43 (Urban)
Fort Myers Int- 43 (Suburban)
Moore Haven-
Immokalee- 38
LaBelle-
Naples- (Urban)
Naples East- (Suburban)
South Bay-

Forecast Was-
Southern Peninsula/Southern Everglades-
Brighton-
Flamingo-
Fort Lauderdale- (Urban)
Fort Lauderdale- 49 (Rural)
Homestead- 48
Miami Int- (Urban)
Ortona-
Perrine- (Suburban)
West Kendall Apt- 48 (Suburban)
West Palm Beach- 50 (Urban)

Forecast Was-
Florida Keys-
Key West-
Marathon-
Tavernier-


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Published Saturday 11/30/02 12:00 AM EST

A west wind above the boundary level and some high clouds are already occurring across the peninsula, 3-4 hours sooner then I expected. This will act to reduce the severity and duration of the freeze threat, as I surmised might happen. Brooksville east is down to 30 deg. and East Nobleton is down to 29 deg., the only subfreezing temperatures that I can find on the peninsula. Here in west Plant City east of Tampa it's 36 deg.

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Published Friday 11/29/02 5:00 PM EST

Low dewpoints have penetrated deep into the south and SW peninsula today and with the high pressure center expected to settle over the central and southern peninsula, perfect radiational cooling conditions should occur over the inland rural central and southern peninsula, with clear skies and a calm wind until at 3-4:00 AM. I would not be surprised to see the subfreezing line as far south as Immokalee and east to U.S. 27. Normally coldest areas could see mid 20's to around 30, with lot's of frost.

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Published Friday 11/29/02 11:00 AM EST

This morning dawned as the coldest morning of the winter season so far in most of the sunshine state. The cold spot in the state was 23 deg. at Crestview on the NW panhandle. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 25 deg. at East Nobleton. The cold spot on the southern peninsula was 41 deg. at Immokalee. Here in Plant City east of Tampa it was 32 deg, with 31 deg. in nearby Knights Station, with frost in the area.

Tonight's forecast is very tricky once again. If dry air advects far enough south during the day today, the freeze line could move into the south central peninsula on early Saturday morning 11/30/02, with the coldest temperatures over the penenisula. A saving grace for a real crop threatening cold spell for Saturday morning will probably be light SW-W flow above the boundary layer off the Gulf Of Mexico ahead of the next weather system, that could halt temperatures falls across the northern and central peninsula by 3:00 AM.

We should see a temporary warmup tomorrow afternoon, before even colder air begins to arrive in the state on Sunday 12/01/02, lasting through Tuesday morning 12/03/02.

Some selected minimum temperatures For 11/29/02.
The forecast was for rural inland areas of the state.

Forecast Was-
Panhandle NW/North-
Bronson- 29
Chipley- 30
Crestview- 23
De Funiak Springs-31
Jay- 28
Madison- 26
Marianna- 30
Monticello-
Perry- 25
Quincy- 27
Tallahassee- 25

Forecast Was-
Non Panhandle North-
Bell- 27
Glen St. Mary-
Jacksonville- 31
Jasper- 28
Lake City-
Live Oak- 26
Mayo-
Middleburg- 28
Starke- 30

Forecast Was-
North Peninsula-
Alachua- 24
Chiefland-
Cross City- 27
Gainesville- 31
Hastings-
Lake Butler-
Mayo-
Putnam Hall- 31

Forecast Was-
North Central Peninsula-
Apopka-
Avalon-
Brooksville East-29
Brooksville South-28
Citra- 29
Inverness- 30
Lady Lake-34
Leesburg- 38 (Urban) Nobleton East- 25
Ocala- 32 (Suburban)
Ocklawaha-
Okahumpka- 34
Orlando Int- 41 (Suburban)
Orlando Ex- 41 (Urban) Pierson-
Plymouth- 31
Tavares-
Umatilla-

Forecast Was-
Central Peninsula-
Balm-
Dover- 36
Kissimmee-
Lakeland- 39 (Suburban)
Melbourne- 42 (Urban)
Palm Bay- 41 (Suburban)
Ponce Inlet-
Plant City North (Knights Station)- 31
Plant City West- 32
Plant City- 37 (Urban)
Ruskin- 40
San Antonio- 28
Scottsmoor-
St. Leo-
St. Pete./Clearwater Int- 48 (Urban)
Tampa Int- 42 (Urban)
Tampa East Van- 38 (suburban)

Forecast Was-
South Central Peninsula-
Avon Park-
Archbold-
Fort Pierce- 44
Okeechobee-
Ona- 38
Venus- 35
Vero Beach- 43

Forecast Was-
Southern Peninsula/Northern Everglades-
Belle Glade- 47
Clewiston- 43
Devils Garden-
Punta Gorda- 43
Felda-
Fort Myers Reg- 46 (Urban)
Fort Myers Int- 46 (Suburban)
Moore Haven- 45
Immokalee- 41
LaBelle-
Naples- 49 (Urban)
Naples East- 47 (Suburban)
South Bay- 44

Forecast Was-
Southern Peninsula/Southern Everglades-
Brighton-
Flamingo-
Fort Lauderdale- 51 (Urban)
Homestead- 50
Miami Int- 53 (Urban)
Ortona- 42
Perrine- 49 (Suburban)
West Kendall Apt- 51 (Suburban)
West Palm Beach- 48 (Urban)

Forecast Was-
Florida Keys-
Key West- 62
Marathon- 59
Tavernier- 57


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Published Thursday 11/28/02 11:00 AM EST

Happy Thanksgiving to all! Not much change to my thinking from yesterday's post concerning the upcoming one two punch of cold weather. It's always interesting to watch Mother Nature do her work to keep Florida safe from "regular" Arctic air intrusions. For the past two weeks we have seen very sharp 500 mb troughs decend through the region deep into the northern Caribbean region, allowing Continental Polar (CPk) air intrusions into the peninsula. Then when a one two or even three punch surge of unusually early season Arctic Air (CAk) invades the eastern U.S. and threatens Florida, the shallow latitudanal depth of the 500 mb trough protects us from the "direct" onslaught. What's going on to protect us? The 500 mb cutoff low in the desert SW in unison with it's alter ego balancing things out, a moderately strong 500 mb high pressure block in the NW Caribbean. Without this temporary situation in place we would be seeing a record early significant crop threatening freeze.

As I posted yesterday morning, it looks like a hard to moderate freeze across the north with the subfreezing line reaching down to about I-4, west of the Sunshine Parkway in inland rural areas for Friday morning, with a wind chill factor to boot. High temperatures in the 40's and 50's north, 50 and 60'S's central and 60's and 70's south are a good bet for Friday afternoon. The freeze line could move into the south central peninsula on Saturday morning. However the saving grace for a real cold Saturday morning will probably be light SW-W flow above the boundary layer off the Gulf Of Mexico ahead of the next cold front, which could deliver even colder air to the state on Sunday 12/01/02.

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Published Wednesday 11/27/02 11:00 AM EST

Another below normal morning temperature wise across the state, as a matter of fact 12 of the last 15 mornings have featured below normal temperatures here on the central peninsula. The tentative cold spot this morning was 35 deg. at Starke on the northern peninsula. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 37 deg. at Inverness. Brighton and Immokalee took honors at 53 deg. on the southern peninsula. Here in Plant City east of Tampa it was 45 deg.

After taking a hard look at the developing upstream weather pattern it appears that we could see even colder weather for Friday and Saturday morning 11/29-30/02 then I first thought. Models are no help with this latest cold wave, as none of them are correctly verifying as of 7:00 AM EST, therefore their 850 mb temperature forecasts and airmass trajectories are incorrect.

It looks like a hard to moderate freeze across the north with the subfreezing line reaching down to about I-4, west of the Sunshine Parkway in inland rural areas for Friday morning, with a wind chill factor to boot. High temperatures in the 40's north, 50's central and 60's south are a good bet for Friday afternoon. The freeze line could move into the south central peninsula on Saturday morning. However the saving grace for a real cold Saturday morning will probably be light SW-W flow above the boundary layer off the Gulf Of Mexico ahead of the next cold front, which could deliver even colder air to the state on Sunday 12/01/02.

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Published Tuesday 11/26/02 11:00 AM EST

Another below normal morning temperature wise across the state. The cold spot was 34 deg. at Crestview on the NW panhandle and Perry on the north panhandle. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 40 deg. at Inverness. Brighton took honors at 52 deg. on the southern peninsula. Here in Plant City east of Tampa it was 50 deg.

Looking at the current weather pattern across the country, the mid level cutoff low is making little progress eatward and actually appears to be retrogressing slowly SW, the El Nino stoked up sub tropical jetstream has strengthened some and the developing east coast 500 mb trough looks as though it will now phase with the sub- tropical jetstream over the deep south. What does this all mean? Colder weather for the state during the period of Thursday-Sunday 11/28-12/01/02, then it first appeared. While most of my bretheran will be looking at the warm biased olf MRF/new GFS for temperature guidance, actual temperatures should be much colder but no colder then the last cold spell that saw isolated pockets of freezing temperatures as far south as I-4, west of U.S. 27 on the morning of 11/24/02.

Looking further down the road, the ever strenghtening El Nino pattern may become more dominant here in Florida for and approximate two week period beginning around 12/04/02. This means milder but wetter weather. This is not written in stone though, as it's very difficult to forecast the interaction of a moderate El Nino with warmer then normal ocean temperatures in the central Pacific much like 1976-77, versus the eastern Pacific in 1997-98.

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Published Monday 11/25/02 11:00 AM EST

Another cold morning across the northern 1/3 of the state but temperatures on the peninsula were approximately 10 deg. higher then yesterday morning. The cold spot was 28 deg. at Jasper on the non panhandle north. Temperatures should continue to recover to only seasonable levels through Wednesday 11/27/02, with cooler weather and a chance of rain returning with the next cold front by Thanksgiving Day 11/29/02.

Colder weather begins arriving for Friday/Saturday 11/29-30/02. True Arctic air on cross polar flow from Siberian Russia will begin invading the Eastern U.S. later this week and it's to early to tell just how much if any of this frigid airmass will make it into the Florida peninsula. Forecast model 500 mb progs. at this moment forecast a depth of the longwave trough latitudanally that is unimpressive at this time and would point to no colder a shot then we have seen so far this season. Forecast model 850 mb progs. are also unimpressive as far as cold air trajectory into the peninsula.

However we must be vigil though as Arctic air can slip beneath unfavorable 500 mb steering flow, much like the hard freezes of December 1983 and November 1970.

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Published Sunday 11/24/02 11:00 AM EST

Another chilly morning once again in the sunshine state. The cold spot in the state was 26 deg. at Alachua on the north peninsula. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 28 deg. at east Nobleton. The cold spot on the southern peninsula was 45 deg. at Clewiston and South Bay. Here in Plant City east of Tampa it was 35 deg, with 32 deg. in nearby Knights Station, with frost in the area.

Some selected minimum temperatures For 11/24/02.
The forecast was for rural inland areas of the state.

Forecast Was- Mid to upper 20's
Panhandle NW/North-
Bronson-
Chipley-
Crestview- 27
De Funiak Springs-
Jay-
Madison- 27
Marianna- 31
Monticello-
Perry- 28
Quincy-
Tallahassee- 28

Forecast Was- Mid to upper 20's
Non Panhandle North-
Bell- 28
Glen St. Mary- 31
Jacksonville- 33
Jasper- 28
Lake Butler- 31
Lake City- 31
Live Oak-
Mayo-
Middleburg- 31

Forecast Was- Mid to upper 20's
North Peninsula-
Alachua- 26
Chiefland- 33
Cross City- 29
Gainesville- 30
Hastings-
Putnam Hall-

Forecast Was- Upper 20's to low 30's
North Central Peninsula-
Apopka-
Avalon-
Brooksville East-27
Brooksville South-29
Citra- 29
Inverness-
Lady Lake- 34
Nobleton East- 28
Ocala- 30
Ocklawaha-
Okahumpka-
Orlando- (Urban)
Pierson-
Plymouth- 31
Tavares-
Umatilla-

Forecast Was- Low to mid 30's
Central Peninsula-
Balm-
Dover-
Kissimmee-
Lakeland-
Melbourne- 45(Urban)
Palm Bay- 45(Urban)
Ponce Inlet- 30
Plant City North (Knights Station)- 32
Plant City West- 35
Plant City- 39
Ruskin- 40
San Antonio- 31
Scottsmoor- 40
St. Leo- 39
St. Pete./Clearwater- (Urban)
Tampa- 43(Urban)

Forecast Was- Mid to upper 30's
South Central Peninsula-
Avon Park-
Archbold- 40
Fort Pierce-
Okeechobee-
Ona- 43
Venus- 36
Vero Beach-

Forecast Was- Upper 30's to low 40's
Southern Peninsula/Northern Everglades-
Belle Glade- 49
Clewiston- 45
Devils Garden-
Punta Gorda- 47
Felda-
Fort Myers- 49
Moore Haven- 46
Immokalee-
LaBelle- 46
Naples- 51
Naples East- 50
South Bay- 45

Forecast Was- Mid 40's to low 50's
Southern Peninsula/Southern Everglades-
Brighton- 45
Flamingo-
Homestead- 54
Perrine- 51
West Kendall-55


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Published Saturday 11/23/02 11:00 AM EST

Another chilly morning in the sunshine state. The cold spot in the state was 26 deg. at Crestview in the panhandle NW. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 33 deg. at Citra, Ocala and east Nobleton. The cold spot on the southern peninsula was 44 deg. at Clewiston. Here in Plant City east of Tampa it was 38 deg.

Normally the second night after a cold frontal passage is the coldest night, as skies clear, winds die off and low dewpoints are in place, with the surface high center moving SE to the central peninsula, a perfect textbook example of radiational cooling. However, tonight's temperature forecast is quite tricky aagain, as the surface high pressure system center is already near the longitude of Pensacola and shifting rapidly east in the progressive (fast moving) jet stream and N-NNE surface wind flow is already showing up. Also some scattered high clouds may move in from the SW late tonight in association with the subtropical jetstream. This would all add up to a warmer night tonight over the western panhandle, central and southern peninsula.

Another fly in the ointment is that a light northerly drainage wind will set up down the peninsula, as surface troughiness exists east of the state and will continue overnight. This drainage wind will allow for a very rapid temperature fall through midnight across the southern peninsula, around 3:00 am on the central peninsula and and all night fall across the northern peninsula and central panhandle.

So for tonight in "inland rural areas" I look for low temperatures in the mid to upper 20's central panhandle and peninsula north, upper 20's to low 30's north central peninsula, low to mid 30's central peninsula, mid to upper 30's south central peninsula, upper 30's to low 40's northern Everglades and mid 40's to low 50's southern Everglades. Cities and coastal areas will be much warmer.

As I said in a previous post, in the nearer term of 10-14 days we are looking at a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Positive West Negative East (PNA) upper air height anomoly pattern. This means a big ridge in the west all the way into the Yukon region of Canada, a deep trough in the eastern U.S. down into the Yucatan region of Mexico and another ridge in the western North Atlantic Ocean. This pattern is also called a dual blocking ridge.

This pattern taps Siberian Arctic air across the North Pole and sends it rushing south into the deep south. It's to early to tell how the Arctic air will impact Florida but it's something that bears close watching. A saving grace for and early season significant freeze would be a slow moving 500 mb cutoff low over the SW corner of the country, keeping the 500 mb flow over Florida more zonal (east-west).

Some selected minimum temperatures For 11/23/02.

Panhandle NW/North-
Bronson-
Chipley-
Crestview- 26
De Funiak Springs-
Jay-
Marianna- 32
Madison-
Monticello-
Quincy-
Tallahassee- 32

Non Panhandle North-
Alachua- 28
Bell- 31
Cross City- 32
Gainesville- 32
Glen St. Mary- 32
Hastings-
Jacksonville- 33
Jasper- 29
Lake Butler-
Lake City-
Live Oak-
Mayo-
Middleburg- 31
Perry- 28
Putnam Hall-

North Central Peninsula-
Apopka-
Avalon-
Brooksville East- 33
Brooksville South-39
Chiefland-
Citra- 33
Inverness- 39
Lady Lake- 36
Nobleton East- 33
Ocala- 33
Ocklawaha-
Okahumpka-
Orlando- (Urban)
Pierson-
Plymouth-
Tavares-
Umatilla-

Central Peninsula-
Balm- 42
Dover-
Kissimmee-
Lakeland-
Melbourne- (Urban)
Palm Bay-
Plant City North(Knights Station)- 36
Plant City West- 38
Plant City- 40
Ruskin-
San Antonio-
Scottsmoor- 39
St. Leo-
St. Pete./Clearwater- (Urban)
Tampa- (Urban)

South Central Peninsula-
Avon Park-
Archbold- 41
Fort Pierce-
Okeechobee-
Ona- 42
Venus- 38
Vero Beach-

Southern Peninsula/Northern Everglades-
Belle Glade- 46
Clewiston- 44
Devils Garden-
Punta Gorda- 47
Felda-
Fort Myers-
Moore Haven-
Immokalee-
Naples East-
South Bay- 45

Southern Peninsula/Southern Everglades-
Brighton- 46
Flamingo-
Homestead- 54
Perrine- 53
West Kendall-

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Published Thursday 11/21/02 10:00 PM EST

The rain event for tonight and Friday morning is pretty much a wash out for the north and central part of the state, with only the east central and SW peninsula seeing any significant rainfall. Though we have strong dynamics and the necessary ingredients for another widespread rain event, their will not be any phasing until all is east of the peninsula.

Embedded in the deep 500 mb trough out in the central Gulf Of Mexico is a strong vorticity maximum and short- wave trough. This in conjunction with a 165 mph jet max in the eastern Gulf Of Mexico, may provide scattered light to moderate rains and maybe even a rumble of thunder overnight across the central peninsula if the system holds together.

Colder weather begins arriving early Friday morning 11/22/02 and will continue through Sunday Morning 11/24/02. This continental polar airmass is a little warmer then the last but early Sunday morning should see better radiational cooling conditions then on Tuesday 11/19/02. Therefore inland rural areas of the central peninsula may see near freezing temperature readings with some scattered frost. A rapid warm up begins on Sunday afternoon, with the next cold spell due by Thanksgiving Day weekend.

Speaking of cold weather, as every week passes our current El Nino pattern continues to develop and it appears that it will be a moderate one. Some years El Nino means a mild to cool and very wet winter like 1997-98 and 1982-83, a classic strong El Nino with warmer then normal ocean surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Others years it means a very cold and wet winter, like moderate El Nino's of 1969-70, 1976-77 and 1978-79. The current trend is in the direction of 1976-77 instead of 1997-98.

In the nearer term of 10-14 days we are looking at a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Positive West Negative East (PNA) upper air height anomoly pattern. This means a big ridge in the west all the way into the Yukon region of Canada, a deep trough in the eastern U.S. down into the Yucatan region of Mexico and another ridge in the western North Atlantic Ocean. This pattern is also called a dual blocking ridge.

This pattern taps Siberian Arctic air across the North Pole and sends it rushing south into the deep south. It's to early to tell how the Arctic air will impact Florida but it's something that bears close watching. A saving grace for and early season significant freeze would be a slow moving 500 mb cutoff low over the SW corner of the country, keeping the 500 mb flow over Florida more zonal (east-west).

So for tonight in inland rural areas I look for low temperatures in the mid to upper 20's central panhandle and peninsula north, upper 20's to low 30's north central peninsula, low to mid 30's central peninsula, mid to upper 30's south central peninsula, upper 30's to low 40's northern Everglades and mid 40's to low 50's southern Everglades.

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Published Tuesday 11/19/02 11:00 AM EST

Another cold morning here in the sunshine state. The cold spot in the state was 29 deg. at Macclenny on the non peninsula north. Alachua was second with 31 deg. The cold spot on the central peninsula was at East Nobleton on the west central peninsula. Jasper in the non peninsula north saw 32 deg., same with east Brooksville on the west central peninsula. Here in Plant City east of Tampa it dropped to 40 deg. by 11:00 pm then only to 39 deg. thereafter for a low.

We begin a warm up today with wet weather including severe weather potential returning on Thursday/Friday 11/21-22/02 for the deep south including Florida. Colder weather once again returns for Friday through Tuesday 11/22-26/02.

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Published Monday 11/19/02 10:00 AM EST

Quite a chilly sunrise across Florida this morning with subfreezing temperatures dipping southwards into the rural inland central peninsula. The cold spot in the state was 30 deg. at Perry on the peninsula north and East Nobleton in Sumter County on the central peninsula. Here in Plant City I observed 36 deg. with some frost on the roof and the ground in my wind sheltered area.

Normally the second night after a cold frontal passage is the coldest night, as skies clear, winds die off and low dewpoints are in place, a perfect textbook example of radiational cooling. However, tonight's temperature forecast is quite tricky, as the surface high pressure system center is already near the longitude of Tallahassee and shifting east in the progressive (fast moving) jet stream and NNE surface wind flow is already showing up. Also some high clouds may move in from the west late tonight ahead of the next storm system. This would all add up to a warmer night tonight over the central and southern peninsula.

A fly in the ointment is that a northerly drainage wind may set up down the peninsula, as troughiness forms east of the state overnight. This drainage wind will allow for a very rapid temperature fall through midnight across the southern peninsula, around 3:00 am on the central peninsula and and all night fall across the northern peninsula and central panhandle.

So for tonight in inland rural areas I look for low temperatures in the mid to upper 20's central panhandle and peninsula north, upper 20's to low 30's north central peninsula, low to mid 30's central peninsula, mid to upper 30's south central peninsula, upper 30's to low 40's northern Everglades and mid 40's to low 50's southern Everglades.

Some selected minimum temperatures For 11/18/02.

Panhandle North-
Bronson- 35
Chipley-
Crestview- 31
De Funiak Springs-
Jay- 35
Marianna-
Quincy- 32
Tallahassee- 32

Non Panhandle North-
Alachua- 31
Bell- 32
Cross City- 32
Gainesville- 34
Glen St. Mary- 34
Hastings-
Jacksonville-
Jasper- 32
Lake Butler- 33
Lake City-
Live Oak- 31
Madison- 31
Mayo- 32
Middleburg- 32
Monticello-
Perry- 30
Putnam Hall- 34

North Central-
Apopka-
Avalon-
Brooksville East- 31
Brooksville South- 34
Chiefland-
Citra-
Inverness- 33
Lady Lake-
Nobleton East- 30
Ocala- 33
Ocklawaha-
Okahumpka-
Orlando- (Urban)
Pierson-
Plymouth- 34
Tavares-
Umatilla-

Central-
Balm 40
Dover- 40
Kissimmee-
Knights Station- 36
Lakeland-
Melbourne- (Urban)
Palm Bay-
Plant City West- 36
Ruskin-
San Antonio-
Scottsmoor- 37
St. Leo-
St. Pete./Clearwater- (Urban)
Tampa- (Urban)

South Central/Northern Everglades-
Avon Park- 44
Archbold- 44
Belle Glade- 44
Fort Myers-
Fort Pierce-
Moore Haven-
Okeechobee- 43
Ona- 42
Punta Gorda- 44
Venus- 36
Vero Beach-

Southern Everglades-
Brighton- 41 Devils Garden- 45
Felda-
Homestead- 47
Immokalee- 43
Naples-
Perrine-
South Bay- 41
West Kendall-

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Published Monday 11/18/02 12:00 AM EST

A cold night is underway in the state with temperatures already in the mid to upper 30's across the panhandle north and into the north central peninsula. At 12:00 AM it's 34 deg. in Quincy and 37 deg. in Ocala. Here in Plant City east of Tampa it's 44 deg.

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Published Sunday 11/17/02 11:00 AM EST

Quite and El Nino enhanced rainfall event yesterday with 1.75-3.00" totals recorded south of S.R. 50 and east of U.S. 301 on the central peninsula and 4.00-10.00" totals across the southern 1/3 of the peninsula. A small area north of Fort Myers saw 12.00+" Only the nature coast missed out on the heaviest rains as the El Nino stoked up sub-tropical jet stream moisture plume was focused over the south central peninsula. Though the moisture plume did move as far north as I-4 it moved no further north before the squall line arrived. Here in Plant City east of Tampa I measured 2.00" of rainfall with a minimum barometric pressure of 29.71".

As I mentioned yesterday afternoon I underestimated the extent of the moisture feed, with the associated clouds and rain cooled air preventing low level instability from developing and therefore fortunately squelched the anticipated severe weather outbreak. However with the extreme mid and upper level dynamics in place yesterday, at least two tornadoes touched down on the central peninsula in Brevard and Polk County's. We dodged a bullet on this one but unfortunately we will have plenty of El Nino stoked up winter storms ahead of this season. Our next storm system arrives on Thursday/Friday 11/22-23/02.

Looking down the road forecast models allude to two high latitude blocks to form in the 500 mb pattern during the next 10-14 days. This would mean colder and wetter then normal weather for Florida. Speaking of cold air advection, it's ongoing on the peninsula today. Temperatures should hold steady around 60 deg. then fall during the afternoon on the central peninsula, with colder readings north. Overnight temps. should drop to around 32 deg. in colder inland rural areas of the central peninsula but t's a tough call as to how cold it will get the next two nights, as we will have wind and clouds due to the screaming 165 mph jet stream max overhead.

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Published Saturday 11/16/02 11:00 AM EST

The El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream has transported tremendous amounts of heat and moisture across the state overnight and this morning, with the focus so far over the southern 1/3 of the peninsula. Rainfall totals 10+" have already fallen in SW Florida near the true warm front. This highest moisture feed should slowly move northward during the day into the south central peninsula.

Helicity values range between 200-300 along the west coast of the state and may still reach 350-400 as the surface low tracks across the north central peninsula later today. A squall line is now taking shape in the NE Gulf Of Mexico and severe weather is still likely but probably more scattered in coverage rather then widespread, as the widespread cloudiness and rainfall shield north of the warm front over the central peninsula is inhibiting further needed destabilization of the atmosphere.

The whole of the peninsula is still under the gun for severe weather but I would think that the biggest danger of severe weather including tornadoes will occur nearest the true warm front and then also near the triple point of the surface extra tropical cyclone. This would mean south central, east central and NE central areas of the peninsula have the highest probability of severe weather later this afternoon and evening.

For Sunday through Tuesday 11/17-19/02 expect very cold weather to invade the state for mid November.


1741 UTC 11/16/02 NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin NEXRAD Radar
Click To Enlarge

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Published Friday 11/15/02 11:00 PM EST

Helicity values are already above 100 along the central west coast of Florida and we are seeing CCW rotation in the supercell thunderstorms that are already forming in the eastern Gulf Of Mexico, a very bad sign of things to come.

With helicity values still progged by the Meso ETA model to be in excess of 400 during the day on Saturday, widespread severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are probable. Latest model runs places a 1000 mb/29.53" surface low pressure gale ashore near Crystal River, WOW!

As models continue to underforecast this El Nino stoked up winter storm much like the February 1998 F4-5 tornado outbreak, I'm afraid that most private and government weather forecasters are underestimating tomorrow's events. Hope more people have weather radio alert systems then in 1998.

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Published Friday 11/15/02 11:00 AM EST

We have a VERY SERIOUS severe weather scenario unfolding for all of Florida on Saturday 11/16/02. With model forecasted helicity values above 500 for 7:00 pm local on Saturday, if this verifies widespread severe weather including tornadoes are probable. This would be the most serious severe weather outbreak since the El Nino induced F4-5 tornado killer outbreak of February 1998!

Unfortunately none of the models are in agreement as to the timing and phasing of the upcoming severe weather event, not and uncommon situation during and El Nino stoked up storm event. However the ETA which would be considered the outlier of the models is probably the correct one in this instance. It is now forecasting secondary surface low development, with it's attendant wind shear, helicity, vorticity and CAPE to track across the north central peninsula on Saturday, something I already forecasted yesterday.

When the severe weather barrage and 3-6" flooding rains finally come to and sometime on Sunday 11/17/02, expect probable wrap around gales to force 40 deg. temperatures for highs across the northern peninsula and 50 deg. temperatures for highs deep into the central peninsula. A light to moderate freeze can be expected across the inland rural northern 1/3 of the peninsula, with a near to light freeze expected across the inland rural central 1/3 of the central peninsula during the Monday/Tuesday 11/18-19/02.


0000 UTC 11/17/02 ETA 1000-500 MB Thickness Prog
Click To Enlarge


0000 UTC 11/17/02 ETA Helicity Prog
Click To Enlarge

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Published Thursday 11/14/02 11:00 AM EST

My idea of a phasing of a vigorous upstream 500 mb shortwave trough with the surface cold front across the central peninsula early Wednesday 11/13/02, resulting in a widespread moderate to heavy cold rain did not materialize. The phasing seemed to have occurred once the system was east of the state Wednesday evening.

A 48 hour temperature drop of up to 40 deg. occurred after the strong cold frontal passage, with temperatures Thursday morning 11/13/02 falling to the low to mid 30's across the panhandle north, mid to upper 30's across the peninsula north, low to mid 40's across the north central peninsula, mid to upper 40's across the central peninsula and upper 40's to low 50's across the south central peninsula. The cold spot was at Crestview in the panhandle north with 32 deg., Alachua on the peninsula north saw 36 deg., Inverness on the north central peninsula saw 40 deg., Brooksville on the central peninsula saw 41 deg., Plant City 46 deg. and Archbold on the south central peninsula saw 48 deg.

The present cool shot is short lived as we have a progressive (fast moving) jetstream pattern in place. Yesterday's 500 mb trough is today's 500 mb shortwave ridge with a more moist NE-E flow, to be replaced on Friday and Saturday 11/15-16/02 by a rapidly deepening and sharp full latitude 500 mb trough. The next storm system, which at this moment is just a weak surface low in Oklahoma will rapidly strengthen and move SE to a point south of Tallahasee in the NE Gulf Of Mexico on Saturday afternoon, dragging a strong cold front across the peninsula.

A very strong to severe line of thunderstorms will rake the entire peninsula from NW-SE on Saturday and into Sunday ahead of the cold front. With and El Nino stoked up subtropical jet tapping low level heat and moisture from T.D. 16E west of Mexico, dry 700 mb level air from the deserts of NE Mexico and unusually cold Arctic air at 850 mb temperatures from the NW, this squall line could be a prolific tornado and tidal surge producer.

I'm getting many emails asking if this could be a repeat of the March 1993 extra-tropical (winter) hurricane like storm and the answer is probably not as that type of storm only occurs at this latitude once every 50-100 years BUT the models are not handling this complex developing storm system and a 20 year gale is possible.

What is interesting is the southward push of early season Arctic air that will explode into Florida on Sunday possibly on NW-N gales. The AVN model forecasts 850 mb temps. of 0 deg. C by 0000 UTC Sunday down to Jay, 0 deg. C by 0600 UTC down to Panama City, -2 deg. C to Pensacola and Crestview, 1200 UTC 0 deg. C down to Perry , -2 deg. C at Tallahassee, -4 deg. C at Pensacola and Crestview, 1800 UTC 0 deg. C down to Crystal River and Ocala, -2 deg. C to Perry, -4 deg. C at Tallahassee, -6 deg. C at Crestview, 0000 UTC Monday 0 deg. C down to Brooksville and Orlando.

What does this all mean? Possible wrap around snow across the panhandle Sunday and then a significant freeze into inland rural areas of the north and central Peninsula on Monday and or Tuesday mornings 11/18-19/02. Speaking of snow, the double barrel surface low will wreak havoc up the U.S as a classic Nor'easter, a major east coast storm with heavy snow above 1000 feet from Georgia to New England, possibly at lower elevations. Severe weather across the deep south is also probable.


0000 UTC 11/18/02 AVN 850 MB Prog
Click To Enlarge


1800 UTC 11/17/02 AVN 500 MB Prog
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Published Tuesday 11/12/02 10:00 AM EST

Tragically on Sunday 11/10/02 we saw our first El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream widespread severe weather outbreak of the winter season across the Midwest and deep south. Any Meteorologist worth his weight in salt could see what was coming but you could only hope that warning systems in place would prevent deaths. Unfortunately we will have many more to come this El Nino winter, including round two by the end of the week and into the weekend.

Here in Florida our chance for severe weather occurs later today and tonight, with the greatest danger over the northern and north central peninsula, as a strong cold front moves across the state. Tomorrow morning could see a winter like period of post frontal passage cold rain, with 24 hour temperature drops of up to 40 degrees also expected.

Speaking of warmth, temperatures once again skyrocked between the 09-11th hitting the mid to upper 80's across much of the peninsula after our three day cool off. Today and tonight should also be very warm in advance of squall line.

Looming ominously over the horizon is a very significant severe weather outbreak AND frozen precipitation event for the deep south and east coast between Friday 11/15/02 and Monday 11/18/02, followed by a significant cold spell deep into the Florida peninsula. On Sunday 11/17/02 frozen precipitation may fall across the deep south and gulf coast from near New Orleans to Crestview.


11/12/02 IR Satellite View Of E. Gulf Of Mexico, UH OH!!!
Click To Enlarge


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Published Thursday 11/07/02 5:00 PM EST

Wow what a tremendous temperature drop of up to 40 deg. occured across the state during the past 24 hours! High temperatures on Wednesday 11/06/02 ranged between the low and mid 80's, falling to as low as the upper 30's to low 40's as far south as the north central peninsula and mid 40's to low 50's into the south central peninsula. Today's high temperatures stayed in the 60's, with relative humidity levels in the 30% range across much of the central peninsula.

The cold spot was 38 deg. at Crestview in the panhandle north, with 40 deg. at Alachua on the non peninsula north and also 40 deg. at Inverness on the north central peninsula. Here in Plant City east of Tampa it was 46 deg. after a high temperature yesterday of 83 deg.

Similar or colder temperatures are expected once again Friday morning 11/08/02, with a strong warm up beginning on Saturday 11/09/02 and continuing through Tuesday 11/12/02, with wetter weather also returning. The next cold front will reach the state on Wednesday 11/13/02. Actually the next El Nino'ish stoked up subtropical jetstream storm may get rough across the midwest and south.


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Published Wednesday 11/06/02 6:00 AM EST

Wow what and amazingly warm early November morning we are seeing on the peninsula, with temperatures in the mid to upper 70's at 5:00 AM. This is occurring on SW flow ahead of and approaching squall line and cold front. The front should sweep across the state today and tommorow, ushering in the coolest weather of the season so far. 60's/30's will occur across the panhandle north and northern peninsula, 60's/40's north central, with near 70/50 central and 70's/50's further south on Thursday and Friday 11/07-08/02.

Temperatures will begin warming by Saturday 11/08/02 and stay warm with increaing rain chances until Wednesday 11/13/02, when another cold front arrives. Overall though the period through 11/20/02 should be mild to warm and wetter then normal, as we will see a 500 mb pattern change that will cutoff the arctic air source region and replace it with a more zonal flow and air maases of Pacific origin in a stoked up El Nino'ish subtropical jet.

I have been so busy in my website design business that I did have time to comment on the weather patterns during the past week. As advertised cooler weather did arrive during the first three days of November but we seem to have had very little fall weather to enjoy so far this season. As warm as October 2002 was, the mean month average temperature was only 1.7 deg. above normal.


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Published Thursday 10/31/02 10:00 AM EST

I've been so busy the previous four days with my website design and advertising business that I have not had time to look at the currently unfolding weather pattern for Florida. On wednesday 10/30/02 the central peninsula saw rainfall totals of 0.25-0.75" with the passage of the pre-frontal trough and first weak cold front. The second reinforcing surface cold front will move down the peninsula today with 850 mb temepratures falling to around 10 deg. C at approximately 28 deg. north on Saturday and Sunday 11/02-03/02. However with the axis of the 850 mb trough not moving east the peninsula, wind flow at that level (approximately 5000 feet) will not shift to NW, therefore the warmer temperatures then first expected.

Unfortunately for the heat and humidity frazzled Floridian's who are considering suicide by crawling into large freezers, temperatures will not fall as low as I first thought last week. However temperatures will fall from near the 90/70 deg. mark yesterday to the 70/50's range beginning on Friday 11/01 and continuing through Monday 11/04/02. By the way october 2002 will go down in the record books as being wet and one of the warmest.

It's sad to watch many private Meteorologists here in Florida flip flop their forecasts between one MRF/GFS model run to the next. Unfortunately the MRF/GFS has no clue how to handle El Nino stoked up subtropical jetstream disturbances, therefore it spits out gross (MOS) model output statistic inaccuracies. Weather forecast accuracy within the private Florida weather forecasting community also suffers due to the heavy handed tactics of the U.S. Government boys trying to force private Meteorologists to only regurgitate it's inaccurate forecast garbage.

The persistent beast of a deep layered blocking heat ridge SE-S of the peninsula responsible for the record heat and humidity during the past two weeks and actually for the whole month of October save a few days, is in the process of being beaten down and shifted east. The reason for the higher temperature readings that we will see through the weekend, which will run approximately 10 deg. warmer then I first thought (I was wrong), is due to and El Nino stoked up sub tropical jet stream continuing to gather strength, not the heat ridge. Looking at the strong subtropical jet across the gulf coast you can see a series of disturbances in it. One will create light rain showers across the peninsula today, with heavier rains possible Friday 11/01/02 before the cooler weather really begins arriving Friday night.

By Tuesday 11/05/02 warmer temperatues and moisture will rapidly return, as a stronger El Nino stoked weather disturbance combines with a brewing tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean and dumps significant rainfall across the peninsula through Thursday 11/07/02. By the way the last time I saw a significant tropical disturbance impact Florida in November, a record breaking cold winter followed. I continue to see certain teleconnection analogs this fall that point to a cold 2002-2003 winter for Florida, similar to 1976-77, 1980-81, 1984-85, however I also see warmer and wetter teleconnection analogs too, similar to 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98. The end result for the winter of 2002-2003 will be colder and wetter then normal, much more so then the winter of 2001-2002. Much the same should hold for the eastern 2/3's of the U.S.

Above normal 2002-2003 winter rains coupled with the incredibly wet summer of 2002 means a real end to the droughty conditions that began effecting Florida in the Spring of 1998. Unfortunately though some of the non elected water managers in this state that do not respect private property rights, will continue to keep we private citizens under permanent water restrictions, while allowing agriculture interests to waste water. That coupled with some water managers and politicians that can't seem to figure out that we have a water "storage" shortage, not a water shortage. The summer of 2002 saw 100 sexti-bizillion gallons of fresh water head straight for the ocean, instead of into storage water facilities. Duh!

Back to weather, cooler weather should arrive again in Florida on Friday 11/08/02 but the current Siberian Russia source region for the arctic air masses that have been oozing into the U.S. recently, will be cutoff somewhere around Sunday 11/10/02 through Wednesday 11/20/02. This will mean and end to the record breaking cold of recent weeks (high temperature in Denver yesterday of 18 deg!) across the northern tier of states and the plains, as the airmass source region will be the Gulf Of Alaska. What does this mean for Florida, probably seasonably mild and wet.

By the way I'm catching some heat from fans and foes alike, due to greater inaccuracy in my weather outlooks. I must remind all that I'm officially retired from weather forecasting and publish this outlook for educational purposes only. However the Florida Meteorological & Climatic Institute will accept $$$ donations that will allow me to purchase timely raw weather forecasting data that would return my 24 hour weather forecasting accuracy to 99% and 7 day accuracy to 91%.


10/31/02 El Nino Stoked Up Subtropical Jet Stream
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Published Monday 10/28/02 2:00 PM EST

Some pretty hefty thunderstorms developed in northern Manatee and southern Hillsborough Counties yesterday evening and moved NNW, with 1-2" rainfall totals common. Some lighter rainfall totals occurred in the Brandon and Seffner areas.

It's already a hot and humid day again across the peninsula with temperatures in the mid 80's to near 90 deg. and humidity in the 60% range. Rainfall chances are lower this evening as moisture is confined under the 800 mb level.

The weather pattern will begin changing on Wednesday 10/30/02, as the first weak cold front enters the area and then pulls up stationary across the south central peninsula on Thursday 10/31/02. I think the models are underestimating the rainfall potential across the state during the Thursday-Saturday 10/30-11/02/02 period, as the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream will be involved and tropical moisture will be drawn northward across the state.

The real cold front arrives for Saturday 11/02/02 with strong cold air advection beginning late Saturday and continuing into Sunday and Monday 10/03-04/02. I feel that the models are also underestimating how cold this upcoming period will be. I still think that a light freeze is likely in inland rural areas of the panhandle and penisula north, with near freezing possible in inland rural areas of the north central peninsula and 40's elsewhere. We are talking about a 20-30 deg. temperature drop.


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Published Monday 10/28/02 9:00 AM EST

Here in Plant City east of Tampa the minimum temperature this morning was and amazing 71 deg. breaking the old record of 70 deg. set in 1943. The high temperature of 88 deg. on Sunday the 27th fell 3 deg. short of the record though. With the expection of the 16th and 17th when the maximum temperature was only 76 deg. and the 17th through 19th when minimum temperatures were in the low to mid 50's, every day of the month has seen maximum temperatures in the mid 80's to low 90's and minimum temperatures in the mid 60's to low 70's. Without a doubt October 2002 will go down in the record books as the warmest since I began keeping records back in 1965.

Also with 5.33" of rainfall in the rain gauge so far, thanks to a building El Nino weather pattern, October 2002 also goes into the record books as the wettest.

Ironically November 2002 may see a complete reversal in the weather pattern with colder then normal temperatures but still wet.




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Published Saturday 10/26/02 1:00 PM EDT

Don't forget to set your clocks back one hour as you go to bed tonight, as we return to standard time and sunset times before 6:00 pm local.

We continue with the unseaonably hot and humid weather on the peninsula. Temperatures have been running 10-15 degrees above normal in the upper 80's to low 90's at day and low 60's to low 70's at night, with high humidity and isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

Our extension of summer will continue until Wednesday the 30th, when a strong cold front and modified arctic air explodes through the state, dropping temperatures 20-30 degrees.

On Saturday morning November 2nd a light freeze is likely in inland rural areas of the panhandle and penisula north, with near freezing possible in inland rural areas of the north central peninsula.


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Published Thursday 10/24/02 10:00 AM EDT

The first wave of thunderstorm activity associated with the next 500 mb shortwave and vorticity maximum pushed across the state early this morning. Unfortunately it fell apart as it crossed the central peninsula but rains did fall across the northern 1/3 of the peninsula.

With unseasonably high temperatures once again this afternoon, coupled with high moisture levels (PW 1.79" at TBW), cold air aloft (-9.9 deg. C at TBW) and seabreeze and boundary collisions, it should be another active thunderstorm day with a few severe cells much like yesterday. Heaviest thunderstorms should occur across inland and east coast areas of the north central and central peninsula.

The high pressure heat ridge SE of the state will build back over the weekend again, halting any cooler weather from arriving on the peninsula until after the 31st. Models are hinting at a very big cool down during the first week of November, with tempertures falling 20-30 degrees!!!


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Published Thursday 10/24/02 12:10 AM EDT

Wow did the central Florida peninsula get hammered by widespread heavy thunderstorms Wednesday evening. Unseasonable heat, high moisture levels and cold air aloft with a couple of shortwaves and vorticity maximums, all came together for a rough night.

I measured 3.05" of rain here in west Plant City, with some areas seeing 4-6" of rainfall, with even localized heavier amounts of 6-9".

By the looks of satellite and radar images, the next El Nino'ish storm system will arrive later this early morning, making for another stormy day today.


10/23/02 NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin NEXRAD RADAR Rainfall Totals
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Published Wednesday 10/23/02 6:30 PM EDT

At 6:25 pm we have and ongoing severe thunderstorm warning for southern and eastern Hillsborough County. Guess I should have kept my big mouth shut about thunderstorms today. See radar image below.


2205 UTC 10/23/02 NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin NEXRAD RADAR Image
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Published Wednesday 10/23/02 2:00 PM EDT

We had some summer like thunderstorms around yesterday afternoon and more are expected today.

Thunderstorm chances increase overnight and into the day Thursday the 24th, as a couple of 500 mb shortwaves in the stoked up El Nino'ish subtropical jet stream cross the northern peninsula. Best rain chances will be across the panhandle north and northern 1/3 of the peninsula. Friday the 25th may also be wet but drier then Thursday the 24th.

It's snowing in Denver, CO with temps. in the low 20's, sounds good to me and I wish I still lived there. Speaking of cooler weather, if you believe the AVNx forecast model, high temperatures in Tampa will stay below 70 deg. between 11/1-8 and below 60 deg. between 11/2-3. We can only hope, as I'm headed out the door to finish mowing my lawn shortly with the temp. at 86 deg. and the relative humidity at 63%.


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Published Tuesday 10/22/02 11:00 AM EDT

The El Nino'ish storm system did not come together as I thought it would in the previous 48 hour period. A vorticity lobe passed north of the peninsula and jet stream divergent isentropic lift was weaker and further north. The end result was only scattered thunderstorm coverage in the adjacent Gulf Of Mexico and isolated coverage over the central peninsula. The panhandle and southern peninsula regions did see scattered coverage of thunderstorms though.

Last week I thought I saw a trend developing that would lead to a colder second half of October 2002. We did see a cooler 5 day period between the 16-20th but have now returned to unseasonable sweltering heat and humidity again beginning on the afternoon of the 20th. Temperatures will continue to run in the upper 80's- low 90's at day and mid 60's to low 70's at night, until at least hallow's eve. Cooler weather is again possible at the end of the month and possible extending into the first two weeks of November 2002.

In the nearer term rain chances increase again on Thursday and Friday 23rd-24th with another El Nino'ish sub- tropical jet stoked storm system and again on Wednesday and Thursday 30th-31st. These systems are very difficult to forecast in Ocotober, which is normally the driest month of the year in Florida. A weak but strengthening El Nino pattern is also difficult to pin down forecast wise, especially with moderately strong high pressure blocking E-SE of the state shunting westher systems to far north of the state.

Actually some thunderstorm activity will also be around today and Wednesday 22nd-23rd with near summer like weather conditions prevailing.


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Published Saturday 10/19/02 6:00 PM EDT

Our next El Nino induced storm system will arrive in the area on Monday 10/21/02, bringing a next round of showers and thunderstorms.

We have a disturbed area of weather just south of the western part of Cuba that bears watching for possible development. It is likely and interaction between a westward moving tropical wave and old cold frontal boundary. Some of this moisture may be drawn northward into the approaching storm system.

It's a tough call impact wise on these early season El Nino storms, as the sub stopical jet slowly strengthens, while the models consistently underestimate the strength of the incoming storms. This happened quite frequently during the El Nino winter of 1997-1998 and many model only reader forecasters were repeatedly surprised by the severity of the storm systems.


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Published Friday 10/18/02 11:00 AM EDT The statewide cool spot was 38 deg. at Chipley in the Panhandle north. I had forecasted mid 30's for inland rural areas of the north. so was off a little due to wind. Other minimum temperatures across the north include 40 deg. at Jay, 42 deg. at Crestview and 44 deg. at Alachua.

The cool spot on the central peninsula was 46 deg. at Mount Plymouth, with Brooksvi