Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-70 Published 12/30/03 At 9:00 PM

The period between 12/22-30/03 continued cold to cool as the state experienced a very slow warm up. Inland areas of the panhandle and non peninsula north regions continued to see subfreezing mornings through today. Some areas of the inland rural north central peninsula also saw some subfreezing minimum temperatures. The rest of the state saw minimum temperatures in the 40's and 50's.

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-69 Published 12/21/03 At 3:00 PM

As forecast models predicted, the cold high pressure center moved ENE across the panhandle north region and then into south Georgia during the overnight hours. This kept the cold air advection machine on at the boundary level and precluded long periods of calm wind at the surface on the central and southern peninsula.  A small finger of the high pressure center did nose southward across the peninsula during the latter half of the night, allowing temperatures to fall below freezing in inland rural areas of the central and south peninsula.

The cold spot in the state was 14 deg. at Fort White in the non panhandle north region. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 19 deg. at Holder and Nobleton East. The cold spot on the south peninsula was 31 deg. at Immokalee.

Some notable minimum temperatures in the inland south central citrus region of the peninsula include 24 deg. at Old Venus, 26 deg. at Archbold and 32 deg. at Palmdale. The east side of the citrus growing region stayed above freezing.

Some selected minimum temperatures for 12/21/03. You can readily see warmer urban, coastal and higher elevation locations and colder lower lying rural inland regions.

*- My Private Station Network

#- Private Stations with Accurate Instruments and Exposures

Panhandle North-
Apalachicola- 31

Bronson FAWN- MM

Carrabelle FAWN- 26
Chipley- 26
Crestview- 21
De Funiak Springs- 28
Jay FAWN- 28

Madison- 24
Marianna- 25 
Marianna FAWN- 24

Monticello- mm
Monticello FAWN- 23

#New Hope- 24
Panama City- 32  
Perry- 23
Quincy- mm
Quincy FAWN- 25
Steinhatchee Fire Tower- 25
Tallahassee Int AP- 21
Tallahassee Canopy Oaks Elem- mm
Tallahassee Chiles HS- mm

Non Panhandle North & North East-

#Fort White- 14
Glen St. Mary- 21 
Jacksonville WSO AP- 24 
Jasper- 24
Lake City- 25
Live Oak- mm 
Live Oak FAWN- 22
MacClenny FAWN- 22
Middleburg- mm
Starke- 23 

North Peninsula-
Alachua FAWN-  21

Bronson FAWN- 28
Chiefland- 29
Cross City- 21 
Gainesville- 22
Hastings- 30

High Springs- mm
Lake Butler- mm 
Mayo- mm 
Putnam Hall FAWN- 27 

 

North Central Peninsula-
Apopka FAWN- 34
Avalon FAWN- 36

#Brooksville- 29

Brooksville South AP- 21

Clermont Climate St- 36

#Holder- 19
Citra FAWN- 25
Daytona Beach Int AP- 36 
Inverness Climate St- 25 
The Villages- 30 
#Lady Lake- 28
Leesburg AP- 34

Mount Plymouth- 24

Nobleton FAWN- 23

#Nobleton- mm

*Nobleton East- 19
Ocala AP- 25 
Ocklawaha FAWN- 31
Okahumpka FAWN- 31
Orlando Int AP- 37
Orlando Ex AP- 40

Orlando East- 35
Pierson FAWN- 27
Sanford AP- 38 
Tavares FAWN- 37 
Umatilla FAWN- 27
 
Central Peninsula-
#Balm- 33

Balm FAWN- 33
Bradenton FAWN- 33 

*Dade City- 29

Dade City South- 27
Dover FAWN- 31 

Kenansville FAWN- 32
Kissimmee AP- 34
Lake Alfred FAWN- 34 
Lakeland Linder AP- 33

*Lakeland SW- 29
Melbourne Int AP- 39

Melbourne NWS- 37
Palm Bay- 32

Plant City Climate St- 31
*Plant City North (Knights Station)- 26
*Plant City West- 28
*Plant City SW- 29
Ruskin Tampa Bay NWS- 33
*Darby- 22

#Kenneth City- 35

Scottsmoor- 31
St. Leo- 27

St. Pete./Clearwater Int AP- 43
St. Pete. Albert Whitted AP- 46
Sarasota/Bradenton AP- 37

Tampa Int AP- 36

Tampa East Vandenberg AP-28

Tampa South MacDill AFB- 39
 #Zephyrhills NE- mm

 

South Central Peninsula-
Avon Park- 30 
Archbold Bio St- 26
Brighton- 36
Fort Pierce Int AP- 39 
Fort Pierce FAWN- 37
Okeechobee- 37
#Old Venus- 24

Ona FAWN- 35

Palmdale FAWN- 32

Sebring FAWN- 35

Vero Beach- 39
Vero Beach AP- 39

 

South Peninsula/Northern Everglades-
Belle Glade- 40

Belle Glade FAWN- 36
Clewiston- 35 
Devils Garden- mm 
Punta Gorda- 34 
Fort Myers Page AP- 40
Fort Myers Int AP- 38
Moore Haven- 38

Immokalee- 35 
Immokalee FAWN- 31
La Belle- mm 

Marco Island- 40
Naples Muni AP- 41
Naples East- 39

Ortona- 33
South Bay- 35
 

South Peninsula/Southern Everglades-
#Boynton Beach West- mm

Everglades City- 40
Fort Lauderdale Int AP- 47
Fort Lauderdale Exec AP- 45
Fort Lauderdale FAWN- 45
Homestead Gen AP- 40
Homestead AFB- 46
Homestead FAWN- 37
Miami Int AP- 47
Miami Beach- 48

Ochopee- 40
Perrine- 39
Royal Palm Beach West- 41
West Kendall AP- 43
West Palm Beach Int AP- 44

Florida Keys-

#Key Largo- 49
Key West Int AP- 54
#Key West Inland- 52 
Key West NAS-
Marathon- 52
Tavernier- 50

A warm up is already underway this afternoon with a NE wind, with today’s maximum temperatures at least 10 deg. warmer then yesterday. Sunday mornings minimum temperatures should be 10-20 deg. warmer then this morning, with some isolated pockets of near freezing minimum temperatures in normally colder inland rural areas of the north central and north peninsula regions.

We will continue with a slow warm up to near normal by Christmas Eve 12/24/03 with a small chance of rain, then colder weather again for Christmas Day 12/25/03. This next cold spell will be warmer then the last.

The chances of a significant freeze event between Christmas and the new year has now been eliminated, as the positive Pacific North America (PNA) jet stream pattern, which consists of a ridge in the west and a trough in the east will get undercut and beaten down as the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream re-exerts itself.  

We should see near normal temperature and precipitation for the remainder of the month and it could extend through the first 1-2 weeks of January 2004!

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-68 Published 12/20/03 At 2:00 PM

The latest dry cold front is currently racing across the state bringing renewed strong cold and dry air advection. As I discussed yesterday we are seeing inland dewpoints crash into the teens north and central and 20’s south as the afternoon is progressing. During the day temperatures are still in the 40’s north, 50’s central and 50’s to around 60 south at 2:00 pm. The cold spot this morning was Fort White in the non panhandle north region with 21 deg. The contiguous subfreezing line in inland rural areas dipped down to approximately S.R. 60, further south then I expected. The cold spot on the central peninsula was at East Nobleton with 24 deg. The cold spot on the southern peninsula was at Homestead FAWN with 37 deg.

Some west central Florida minimum temperature readings were as follows:

*- My Private Station Network

#- Private Stations with Accurate Instruments and Exposures

32 *Suburban SW Plant City

29 *Rural West Plant City

27 *Rural North Plant City (Knights Station)

33 *Urban Dade City

26 *Rural Darby

33 *Rural SW Lakeland

36 #Rural Balm

-- #Rural NE Zephyrhills

34 #Urban Brooksville

24 *Rural East Nobleton

-- #Rural Nobleton

32 #Rural Holder

32 #Rural Lady Lake

40 #Suburban Kenneth City

Just a reminder. As the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still an inexact science, this not for profit weather discussion and forecast outlook is not for use in lieu of official sources, is not for protection of life or property, is for educational purposes only and is subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

For early Sunday morning 12/22/03 the contiguous hard freeze line will extend southward to approximately I-4, in inland rural areas of the central peninsula.

The moderate freeze line will extend southward to approximately S.R. 70, in inland rural areas of the south central peninsula. Normally colder areas such as Archbold will see hard freeze conditions.

The light freeze line will extend southward to approximately U.S. 41 west of U.S. 27,  in inland rural areas of the south peninsula.

The 32 deg. line will extend southward to the latitude of Homestead in inland rural areas of the deep south peninsula.

Minimum temperatures could be a little colder or warmer depending on the exact track of the approaching Arctic cold high pressure center. Forecast model data points to a path across the panhandle north which, would be a warmer scenario but a SE’ward dip to the central peninsula is also possible and a colder scenario.

We will then see a slow warm up to near normal by Christmas Eve 12/24/03 with a chance of rain, then colder weather again for Christmas Day 12/25/03.

The chances of a significant freeze event between Christmas and the new year has been reduced now, as the positive Pacific North America (PNA) jet stream pattern, which consists of a ridge in the west and a trough in the east will get beaten down due to a developing and approaching strong El Ninoish (is that a word) low latitude winter storm.

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-67 Published 12/19/03 At 11:00 AM

The latest dry cold front is currently racing across the state bringing renewed cold air advection. Actual in my opinion dry air advection would be a more accurate description, as we should see dewpoints crash into the teens north and 20’s central as the afternoon progresses. During the day temperatures will struggle to climb out of the 40’s north, 50’s central and 60’s south. The tentative cold spot was Tallahassee in the panhandle north region with 34 deg. I say tentative because I didn’t look that closely.

For early Saturday morning 12/21/03 I expect the contiguous subfreezing line to extend southward to approximately S.R. 54, west of U.S.27 on the west central peninsula. The freezing temperatures should be accompanied by wind (advective freeze), negating the warming advantages of locations near trees and homes. During the day on Saturday I expect another dry cold front to sweep across the state, this time delivering even lower dewpoints to the peninsula. Dewpoints in the teens should extend deep into the central peninsula, setting the stage for a hard freeze into portions of the central peninsula for Sunday morning.

We can then expect the coldest temperatures of the season on Sunday morning 12/22/03 with a hard freeze across the north and also extending southward into the inland rural central peninsula down to approximately S.R. 50. We will see a moderate freeze into the inland rural areas of the central peninsula down to approximately S.R. 60. and a light freeze deep into the southern peninsula to approximately the Alligator Alley west of U.S. 27.

Minimum temperatures could be a little colder or warmer depending on the exact track of the approaching Arctic cold high pressure center. Forecast model data points to a path across the panhandle north but a SE’ward dip to the central peninsula is also possible and a bad scenario.

We will then see a slow warm up to near normal by Christmas Eve 12/24/03 with a chance of rain, then colder weather again for Christmas Day 12/25/03.

Back in November 2003 I forecasted a colder then normal December 2003 and it has come to pass.

I continue to be concerned about the “potential” for a significant freeze event for the agricultural areas of Florida between Christmas and into the new year. The series of winter storms racing across the country will help to create a positive Pacific North America (PNA) jet stream pattern, with is a ridge in the west and a trough in the east and also a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. (NAO) It’s possible that much of the eastern 2/3’s of the U.S. will have snow cover for an extended period of time.

Fortunately though the El Ninoish (is that a word) stoked up subtropical jet stream would eventually undercut the colder PNA pattern and should prevent a prolonged very cold weather period LIKE WE SAW IN January 2003. 

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-66 Published 12/18/03 At 12:00 PM

The coldest air mass of the season settled in over the sunshine state early this morning. The state cold spot was 25 deg. at Crestview in the NW panhandle region and 25 deg. also at Nobleton FAWN on the west central peninsula region. The cold spot on the southern peninsula was 36 deg. at Immokalee.

The contiguous subfreezing line extended down to approximately S.R. 60 on the central peninsula in inland rural areas. There was also a large secondary pocket of subfreezing temperature readings on the east and south central peninsula regions. The subfreezing line did extend further south then I expected, as the last data I looked at pointed to the cold high pressure ridge center passing north and east of the peninsula not across it.

Why did it get so cold in the east and south central citrus growing region? It was simply a case of trajectory, with the cold high pressure center moving SE from the Gulf Coast to the south central peninsula, as it followed mid level steering winds. As the high passed west and then south of the central and northern areas of the state, temperature falls were halted during the middle of the night as a light westerly onshore flow commenced. A similar situation occurred during the historic Christmas freeze in 1983, with the coldest temperatures on the peninsula occurring in the south central region, with readings in the low to mid teens!

Minimum temperatures for west central Florida this morning.

31 Suburban SW Plant City

31 Rural West Plant City

30 Rural North Plant City (Knights Station)

MM Urban Climate Station Plant City

35 Suburban East Tampa Vandenberg Airport

35 Rural FAWN Station Dover

39 Suburban Lakeland Linder Airport

32 Rural SW Lakeland

38 Suburban NWS Office Ruskin

36 Rural Balm

29 Rural Darby

32 Urban Dade City

MM Rural NE Zephyrhills

36 Urban Brooksville

28 Suburban Brooksville Airport

25 Rural FAWN Nobleton

28 Rural East Nobleton

28 Rural Nobleton

28 Rural Holder

32 Rural Lady Lake

41 Urban & Coastal Tampa Intl Airport

39 Urban & Coastal Mac Dill AFB

36 Suburban Kenneth City

44 Urban & Coastal St. Pete/Clearwater Intl Airport

48 Urban & Coastal St. Pete Albert Whitted Airport

40 Suburban Sarasota/Bradenton Airport

Other notable minimum temperatures include:

East Central Peninsula-

Mount Plymouth 31

Palm Bay 31

Kenansville 32

Deland 32

The Villages 32

South Central Peninsula-

Old Venus 29

Archbold 30

Ft. Pierce ARC 30

Palmdale FAWN 33

Today should be a little on the cool side with mid 50’s north, 60 to low 60’s central and mid to upper 60’s south. We should see an onshore west wind during the overnight hours hold minimum temperatures above freezing for most of the peninsula. The onshore flow will be ahead of a reinforcing cold front that will race across the state during the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning.

We can then expect the coldest air mass of the season with a light freeze in the inland rural areas of the central peninsula and a near freeze into inland rural areas of the south central peninsula for Saturday morning 12/21/03. Then a moderate freeze in the inland rural areas of the central peninsula and a light freeze into inland rural areas of the south central peninsula for Sunday morning 12/22/03.

We will then see a slow warm up to near normal by Christmas Eve 12/24/03 with a chance of rain and then colder for Christmas Day 12/25/03

I realize that I’m repeating the following three paragraphs below everyday but it’s because the potential has not diminished.

I continue to be concerned about the “potential” for a significant freeze event for the agricultural areas of Florida between Christmas and into the new year. The series of winter storms racing across the country will help to create a positive Pacific North America (PNA) jet stream pattern, with is a ridge in the west and a trough in the east and also a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. (NAO) It’s possible that much of the eastern 2/3’s of the U.S. will have snow cover for an extended period of time.

Also Alaska and Canada has been a source region for once brutally cold Arctic air mass after another for the past three months and this will continue. Recently temperatures have dropped to -60 deg. F in Alaska and -40 deg. F as far south as Saskatchewan, Canada. It all adds up to a possibility of bitter cold Arctic air racing southward towards Florida with little modification due to snow cover. This is what happened in December 1983 and 1989.

BUT LIKE I SAID LAST WEEK AND YESTERDAY, I’M NOT PREDICTING A BIG FREEZE. I’M ONLY DISCUSSING THE POTENTIAL USING CLIMATOLOGY AND TELECONNECTIONS.

Fortunately though the El Ninoish (is that a word) stoked up subtropical jet stream would eventually undercut the colder PNA pattern and should prevent a prolonged very cold weather period LIKE WE SAW IN January 2003.

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-65 Published 12/17/03 At 4:00 PM

I lost my Roadrunner ISP internet connection for the past couple of days so was not able to track the N.E. U.S. weekend storm as it unfolded.

On Saturday 12/13/03 I posted:
At this moment it's looking like 18-24" from western Maryland, to central
Pennsylvania, through upstate New York, all of Vermont, all of New Hampshire
except the SE corner and inland Maine. The same area of New Hampshire and
Maine that saw up to 40" on 12/11/03 may see 30-40" again.

On 12/14/03 posted:

I now say that some areas could see 50" snowfall totals!

Today Tuesday 12/17/03 I say:

I was finally able to check snowfall totals from the weekend storm earlier this morning. I found totals of 18-30” from central Pennsylvania, through upstate New York, north central Vermont, northern New Hampshire and into Maine. I also found some reports of 42” in portions of Vermont and Maine, so I consider that my snow forecast pretty much verified.

On Saturday 12/13/03 I also posted:
On 12/17-18/03 another heavy snow event will occur once again and this time
it could be heavy along the coast like the first storm of the season.

Today Wednesday 12/17/03 I say:

I haven’t had time to look closely at the current developing storm, so I’ll take a forecasting bye on this one this time.

Now to Florida weather.

On 12/13/03 I said:

We will see another one day period with a warm up into the 70’s on Tuesday 12/16/03, followed by yet another winter storm system sweeping across the sunshine state early on Wednesday 12/17/03, with a chance of thunderstorms, followed by much colder weather. Though we should see another widespread significant rainfall event, without a repeat of a surface low tracking along the north Florida region rainfall totals should be less this time around but should be enough to push month totals above normal.

Today Wednesday 12/17/03 I say:

Well that’s pretty much how it happened. As the subtropical and polar jet streams did not phase this time, all of the heavy rainfall totals occurred across the south central and southern peninsula regions yesterday, nearer the moisture feed and core of the subtropical jet stream, with widespread 1.00-2.00” rainfall totals and a few 3.00+” totals also.

Today’s cold front has been racing across the state with very strong cold air advection in it’s wake. For the northern and central areas of the state maximum temperatures for the day occurred during the overnight hours and also early this morning. Afternoon temperatures have fallen into the 40’s north, 50’s central and 60’s south on NW winds gusting to 35-45 mph!

This cold air mass will be the coldest of the season so far with a light freeze into inland rural areas of the north central and also portions of the west central peninsula on Thursday morning 12/18/03.

We will see a reinforcing cold front sweep across the state on Friday 12/19/03, followed by a light freeze into inland rural areas of the south central peninsula for Saturday-Sunday mornings 12/21-22/03.

Our progressive (fast moving) weather pattern should continue slowing down as ridging continues to build into the western U.S. and Canada. We should therefore see a slow warming trend into Christmas Eve day, then yet another winter storm arrives in the state. Christmas Eve/Christmas day could be windy, chilly and rainy, BAH HUMBUG!

I continue to be concerned about the “potential” for a significant freeze event for the agricultural areas of Florida between Christmas and into the new year. The series of winter storms racing across the country will help to create a positive Pacific North America (PNA) jet stream pattern, with is a ridge in the west and a trough in the east and also a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. (NAO) It’s possible that much of the eastern 2/3’s of the U.S. will have snow cover for an extended period of time. Also Alaska and Canada has been a source region for once brutally cold Arctic air mass after another for the past three months and this will continue. Recently temperatures have dropped to -60 deg. F in Alaska and -40 deg. F as far south as Saskatchewan, Canada. It all adds up to a possibility of bitter cold Arctic air racing southward towards Florida with little modification due to snow cover. This is what happened in December 1983 and 1989.

BUT LIKE I SAID LAST WEEK AND YESTERDAY, I’M NOT PREDICTING A BIG FREEZE. I’M ONLY DISCUSSING THE POTENTIAL USING CLIMATOLOGY AND TELECONNECTIONS.

Fortunately though the El Ninoish (is that a word) stoked up subtropical jet stream would eventually undercut the colder PNA pattern and should prevent a prolonged very cold weather period.

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-64 Published 12/15/03 At 12:00 PM

It was quite chilly this morning across the north and central areas of the state after strong cold air advection during the overnight and early morning period. Tentatively the cold spot in the state this morning was 25 deg. at Crestview in the NW panhandle region. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 34 deg. at Holder and East Nobleton. The cold spot across the southern peninsula was 47 deg. Immokalee.

Here in suburban SW Plant City east of Tampa the min. temp. was 38 deg. with a 10 mph north wind. The 38 deg. reading fell from yesterday’s max. temp. of 69 deg. The barometric pressure rose from 29.80” to 30.24”.

I also received 1.65” of rainfall yesterday. Other Plant City area rainfall totals include 1.74” at the climatological station and 1.88” at the SWFWMD station. Looking at statewide rainfall reports this morning, we saw a very uniform pattern from the NW panhandle to the southern peninsula, with virtually all locations receiving at least 1.00” of rainfall and many between 1.50-2.25” of rainfall, with isolated totals of 3.00+”.

As we continue in the progressive weather pattern, we will see a fast warm up from today’s cold weather. Tonight’s low temperatures will probably occur between 12:00-2:00 am, as the prevailing wind quickly veers to a warmer and more moist NE-E flow ahead of the next winter storm center.

We will see another one day period with a warm up into the 70’s on Tuesday 12/16/03, followed by yet another winter storm system sweeping across the sunshine state early on Wednesday 12/17/03, with a chance of thunderstorms once again, followed by much colder weather. Though we should see another widespread significant rainfall event, without a repeat of a surface low tracking along the north Florida region rainfall totals should be less this time around but should be enough to push month totals above normal.

This cold air mass may be the coldest of the season so far with a light freeze into inland rural areas of the north central peninsula on Thursday morning 12/18/03 and then into the south central peninsula and near freezing in urban areas on Friday/Saturday morning 12/19-20/03.

Our progressive (fast moving) weather pattern should begin slowing down as ridging builds into the western U.S. and Canada. Therefore I don’t have the timing down yet for the next winter storm system and colder weather will arrive somewhere around the Christmas Eve/Day Period.

I continue to be concerned about the “potential” for a significant freeze event for the agricultural areas of Florida between Christmas and into the new year. The series of winter storms racing across the country will help to create a positive Pacific North America (PNA) jet stream pattern, with is a ridge in the west and a trough in the east and also a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. (NAO) It’s possible that much of the eastern 2/3’s of the U.S. will have snow cover for an extended period of time. Also Alaska and Canada has been a source region for once brutally cold Arctic air mass after another for the past three months and this will continue. Recently temperatures have dropped to -60 deg. F in Alaska and -40 deg. F as far south as Saskatchewan, Canada. It all adds up to a possibility of bitter cold Arctic air racing southward towards Florida with little modification due to snow cover. This is what happened in December 1983 and 1989.

BUT LIKE I SAID LAST WEEK AND YESTERDAY, I’M NOT PREDICTING A BIG FREEZE. I’M ONLY DISCUSSING THE POTENTIAL USING CLIMATOLOGY AND TELECONNECTIONS.

Fortunately though the El Ninoish (is that a word) stoked up subtropical jet stream would eventually undercut the colder PNA pattern and should prevent a prolonged very cold weather period.

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-63 Published 12/14/03 At 2:00 PM

First let’s mention the huge and probable record breaking snow storm for the middle Atlantic and New England regions.

On 12/11/03 I posted:

In the last 24 hours the same areas of the mid Atlantic and New England
regions that received 18-40" snow last week are now seeing a heavy rainfall
event. This storm system will dump snow on its northern fringes.

Speaking of snow, as improbable as it may seem the same areas that received
heavy snowfall last week may experience another heavy snow fall event early next
week!

On 12/13/03 I posted:

At this moment it's looking like 18-24" from western Maryland, to central
Pennsylvania, through upstate New York, all of Vermont, all of New Hampshire except the SE corner and inland Maine. The same area of New Hampshire and Maine that saw up to 40" on 12/11/03 may see 30-40" again.

On 12/17-18/03 another heavy snow event will occur once again and this time
it could be heavy along the coast like the first storm of the season.

On 12/14/03 I now say that some areas could see 50” snow fall totals!

Now to Florida weather.

On Saturday 12/13/03 ahead of the cold front we saw a mild and pleasant day with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 60’s north, low to mid 70’s central and upper 70’s south.

Most of the northern and central areas of the state received appreciable rainfall overnight and earlier this morning. Much the central peninsula received 1.00-2.00” of needed rainfall, with a smaller area in Manatee, Sarasota and Orange Counties receiving 3.00+”.

I did not hear of any severe weather across the northern and central parts of the state as the squall line swept through during the overnight hours and was missing the extra atmospheric instability due to surface heating that the Sun would have provided. Now severe weather the southern peninsula may be another story today as the squall line is seeing the added atmospheric instability from surface heating.

Cold air advection will begin later tonight and last into Monday 12/15/03 as the complex low pressure system in the Carolina’s strengthens.

We will see another one day period with a warm up into the 70’s on Tuesday 12/16/03, followed by yet another winter storm system sweeping across the sunshine state on Wednesday 12/17/03 with a chance of thunderstorms once again, followed by colder weather. This cold air mass may be the coldest of the season so far with a light freeze into inland rural areas of the south central peninsula and near freezing in urban areas on Friday/Saturday morning 12/19-20/03.

I don’t have the timing down yet but another winter storm and colder weather will arrive somewhere around the Christmas Eve/Day.

I’m increasingly concerned about the “potential” for a significant freeze event for the agricultural areas of Florida between Christmas and into the new year. The series of winter storms racing across the country will help to create a positive Pacific North America (PNA) jet stream pattern, with is a ridge in the west and a trough in the east and also a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. (NAO) It’s possible that much of the eastern 2/3’s of the U.S. will have snow cover for an extended period of time. Also Alaska and Canada has been a source region for once brutally cold Arctic air mass after another for the past three months and this will continue. Recently temperatures have dropped to -60 deg. F in Alaska and -40 deg. F as far south as Saskatchewan, Canada. It all adds up to a possibility of bitter cold Arctic air racing southward towards Florida with little modification due to snow cover. This is what happened in December 1983 and 1989. BUT LIKE I SAID LAST WEEK I’M NOT PREDICTING A BIG FREEZE. I’M ONLY DISCUSSING THE POTENTIAL USING CLIMATOLOGY AND TELECONNECTIONS.

Fortunately though the El Ninoish (is that a word) stoked up subtropical jet stream will eventually undercut the PNA pattern and should prevent a prolonged cold weather period.

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-62 Published 12/12/03 At 11:00 AM

Per yesterday’s discussion where I forecasted the subfreezing line down to I-4 in inland rural areas, it did not occur. After discussing the fast moving weather pattern we are presently in, I then failed to take into account high cloudiness upstream over Texas associated with the next incoming winter storm system and mid level clouds upstream in association with a weak 500 mb shortwave trough. In any event the mid and high level broken cloud decks brought the temperature fall to a screeching halt.

At my location in suburban SW Plant City the temperature did drop from 62 deg. to 43 deg. in three hours but then bottomed out at only 40 deg. The cold spot in the state was 32 deg. at multiple locations across the north and north central regions.

Today through Saturday morning 12/13/03 will continue chilly but we then we see a big warm up into the 60’s and 70’s during the day Saturday ahead of the next winter storm system. This next storm system arrives late Saturday into Sunday and continues to look more potent then the last system. It looks like we will see phasing of the polar and subtropical jet stream phasing along the Gulf Coast. This would place Florida in the right rear quadrant of a 150+ mph jet maximum and provide for large scale isentropic lift and a widespread moderate to heavy rainfall event. There also exists a minor to moderate potential for severe weather.

I place rain probabilities as follows:

Panhandle North- Saturday Night/Sunday Morning 90-80%.

Central Peninsula- Sunday Morning/Sunday Afternoon 80-70%.

Southern Peninsula- Sunday Afternoon/Evening 70-80%.

Colder weather rushes in again for Monday-Tuesday 12/15-16/03 followed by yet another storm system and colder weather for Wednesday-Thursday 12/17-18/03 and once again on Tuesday-Wednesday 12/23-24.

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-61 Published 12/11/03 At 11:00 AM

We continue in a progressive (fast moving west to east) weather pattern. What that translates into here in Florida is that weather systems are zipping along so quickly that we are not getting the time necessary to develop a good moisture feed ahead of each passing system for significant rainfall, nor deep penetration of really cold air after each system passes.

I continue to see teleconnection signs of a developing high latitude thumb ridge or block, a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a positive Pacific North American Oscillation (PNA). This translates into a slower moving weather system pattern with relatively warm and dry conditions in the far west, a transition in the plains states and cold and wet conditions in the eastern U.S.

In the last 24 hours the same areas of the mid Atlantic and New England regions that received 18-40” snow last week are now seeing a heavy rainfall event. This storm system will dump snow on its northern fringes. Speaking of snow, as improbable as it may seem the same areas that received heavy snowfall last week may experience another heavy snow fall event early next week!

Back in Florida It looks like I should have stayed with my original rainfall probability forecast of 50/40/30% for yesterday instead of upping it to 60/50/40% but I did see indications that a heavier rainfall event was possible. Statewide rainfall totals ranged from .01-0.75” with many locations receiving .50” or more. We did see a pretty large surface pressure drop with this system. At my location in SW Plant City the barometric pressure fell from 30.21” to 29.74” as the storm system approached.

The cold spot in the state was 33 deg. at Jay in the NW panhandle region. On the peninsula the cold spot was 35 deg. at Alachua. Today we are seeing a mostly cloudy, windy and chilly day with ongoing strong cold air advection.

This afternoon northern areas of the state will struggle out of the 40’s, 50’s central and 60’s south on a WNW-NW wind gusting to 35 mph. As the 500 and 850 mb wind flow turns north later today dry air advection will kick in cutting off the cold air stratocumulus across the state. Though this present air mass is a little warmer then the last, we should see better radiational cooling then last time around. This means a huge temperature drop after sunset with the subfreezing line extending southward to the I-4 corridor in inland rural areas.

Friday 12/05/03 through Saturday morning 12/06/03 will continue very chilly but we then we see a big warm up into the 60’s and 70’s during the day Saturday ahead of the next winter storm system. This next storm system arrives late Saturday into Sunday and looks to be more potent then the last system. Looks like we may see phasing of the polar and subtropical jet stream phasing along the Gulf Coast. This would place Florida in the right rear quadrant of a 150 mph jet max. and provide for large scale isentropic lift and a widespread heavy rainfall event. However this scenario is not written in stone though because a strengthening El Nino complicates everything.

Colder weather rushes in again for Monday-Tuesday 12/15-16/03 followed by yet another storm system for Wednesday 12/17/03.

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-60 Published 12/10/03 At 10:00 AM

During the overnight hours the associated vorticity maximum accelerated towards the ESE and brought it's rain shield over the southern peninsula instead of the central peninsula as I had thought.

PWAT's have increased to 1.30" with a helicity of near 300 but with limited instability partially due to cloud cover, continued atmospheric capping and a more unidirectional SW wind flow, it looks like the thunderstorm and rain chances for the central peninsula are now pretty low.

Over the northern peninsula nearer the energy a hefty squall line should rake the region as the day progresses.

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-59 Published 12/09/03 At 12:00 PM

Another chilly morning dawned across most of the sunshine state. The cold spot in the state was 33 deg. at New Hope in the panhandle north region.

During the past 18 hours winds have veered from NNE-SE signaling the beginning of a big warming trend and increase in moisture. Temperatures should recover to near or even a little above normal through Wednesday 12/10/03.

It now appears that rain chances will be higher tomorrow then it first appeared. We should see a spoke or finger of energy from a passing 500 mb shortwave trough cross the north and central part of the state, in conjunction with a strong 850 mb southerly wind jet and a decent moisture feed from the Pacific Ocean.

I’m raising rainfall probabilities to 70% panhandle north 60% peninsula north, 50% central and 40% south. We should look for a squall line of thunderstorms to race across the peninsula, with isolated severe thunderstorms possible. The line should weaken though as it crosses the peninsula.

The associated cold front will sweep across the whole of the state on Thursday 12/11/03, with another big cool down for the period Thursday-Saturday 12/11-13/03 but probably a little warmer then the last one.

Another big warm up will occur during the day on Sunday with temperatures once again recovering to near or above normal.

The next storm system and cold front arrives in Florida on Sunday-Monday 12/14-15/03 and this storm should tap even more Pacific Ocean region moisture via the subtropical jet stream and provide for the possibility of a wider and heavier rainfall event for the state. This next storm looks somewhat El Nino’ish.

Looking further north into the U.S. we will see severe weather and heavy rainfall across the deep south, heavy rainfall, snow melt and probable flooding in the mid Atlantic region, with more snow on the northern fringes during the next 72 hours.

The same areas should get slammed again beginning on Sunday 12/14/03 and lasting for another 72 hours.

As the (NAO) swings to negative by mid month I expect a colder and wetter period of weather for the remainder of December 2003 for the eastern 1/3 of the U.S. Actually the colder then normal period may extend into the middle of January 2004. Thereafter a stronger El Nino should bring milder and wetter weather to the deep south.

To add another specter to the weird weather goings on of late, we now have T.S. Peter in the far east Atlantic Ocean. Like T.S. Odette it may be a hybrid system instead of purely tropical. In any event it should not last long. Someone can correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t remember ever seeing a “P” named storm or a #16 storm in the Atlantic basin? Also this is the first time since 1887 that two tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic basin during December.

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-57 Published 12/07/03 At 4:00 PM

The cold spot in the state this morning was 24 deg. at East Nobleton in the west central peninsula region. The cold spot across the north was 26 deg. at Tallahassee. The cold spot on the southern peninsula was at Immokalee with 38 deg.

It was quite cold in some areas of the west central peninsula with widespread frost, due to long periods with a calm wind. The subfreezing line extended southward to S.R. 60 west of US. 27. Some colder locations on the south central peninsula region dipped below 32 deg. also, including Old Venus at 31 deg. As happens sometimes the central peninsula was colder then the non peninsula north. Sometimes the south central peninsula will be coldest.

Minimum temperatures this morning on the west central peninsula:

32 Suburban SW Plant City

29 Rural West Plant City

26 Rural North Plant City (Knights Station)

32 Urban Climate Station Plant City

33 Suburban East Tampa Vandenberg Airport

33 Rural FAWN Station Dover

35 Suburban Lakeland Linder Airport

31 Rural SW Lakeland

36 Suburban NWS Office Ruskin

35 Rural Balm

25 Rural Darby

34 Urban Dade City

MM Rural NE Zephyrhills

34 Urban Brooksville

30 Suburban Brooksville Airport

30 Rural FAWN Nobleton

24 Rural East Nobleton

MM Rural Nobleton

33 Rural Holder

37 Urban & Coastal Tampa Intl Airport

37 Urban & Coastal Mac Dill AFB

37 Suburban Kenneth City

43 Urban & Coastal St. Pete/Clearwater Intl Airport

44 Urban & Coastal St. Pete Albert Whitted Airport

40 Suburban Sarasota/Bradenton Airport

Today was chilly but a warmer day late fall day then Saturday under weak cold air advection (CAA). Maximum temperatures were 5-10 deg. warmer and dewpoints 10-15 deg. warmer today then yesterday on light north winds. Today’s maximum temperatures ranged from the upper 40’s to mid 50’s north, upper 50’s to mid 60’s central and upper 60’s to low 70’s south.

With clear skies, a light wind and a dry air mass in place I expect the temperature to drop rapidly during the first half of the night under near perfect radiational cooling conditions. The second half of the night should see a more moist NE wind flow above the boundary layer bringing a halt to the temperature fall.

Monday morning should dawn with another round of subfreezing minimum temperatures into portions of the inland rural central peninsula north of I-4 but lowest temperatures may occur around 3:00 am.

We will see a rapid warm up Monday afternoon through Wednesday 12/10/03, with a moderate chance of rain on Wednesday, as another cold front sweeps across the state on Wednesday and into Thursday 12/11/03. At this moment the next air mass looks to be a little warmer then the present one.

The “Old South” north and northeastward through the Midwest, Mid Atlantic and southern New England regions saw an early and historic heavy snowfall event in the past few days. Next week promises and even more widespread snow event in the Eastern U.S. Why do I bring this up? Because it’s reminds me of December 1983 and 1989 when early snowfalls across the eastern U.S. set the stage for brutal cold waves into Florida around Christmas time.

Now I’m not forecasting record breaking cold waves for Florida later this month. I have to say this because I made similar comments in December 2000 and it was misconstrued. When the cold did not come I was accused of crying wolf. It takes a whole series of weather events to bring about a bitter cold repeat like Christmas 1983 and 1989. For more

Information on these historic cold waves check out my sub website at http://66.175.38.157/sub/fmci18.htm .

Standard Disclaimer

NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on current weather events.

Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2003 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion