Winter Weather Outlook For Florida Issued Sunday 09/22/02 11:00 AM EDT

It's a very tough job this time around trying to accurately forecast the upcoming winter weather season. We are facing a slowly building El Nino ocean temperature anomaly in the Pacific Ocean. We are also seeing a pool of warmer then normal ocean water temperature off of New England. We have already seen the El Nino pattern slightly reduce the number of tropical systems this season in the Atlantic Ocean but not until October.

In my opinion we will face a moderate El Nino event at it's peak. A moderate El Nino will produce a totally different global weather pattern impact then a strong or weak one. Also the location of this warm ocean water anomaly will also produce a different global weather pattern. So far this fall the concentration of warmest water lies in the central rather then eastern Pacific Ocean region.

With a presently weak but slowly building El Nino ocean temperature anomaly heading for a moderate level, you might incorrectly expect a milder and much wetter winter season. The winter seasons of 1982-83 and 1997-98 saw a very strong El Nino, with warmest ocean temperatures found in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The end result for Florida was and extremely wet and mild winter with plenty of severe weather. Mild in that subfreezing temperatures were infrequent but the cool weather came early and departed late, with no extended warm periods.

Moderate El Nino's on the other hand frequently usually produce a moderately wet and very cold winter. Analog winters would be 1969-70, 1976-77 and 1978-79. That's right 1976-77! Now am I forecasting a repeat of this now infamous winter, NO!!! However I do think that we are headed in that direction.

First of all let me advise you that I correctly forecasted 12 consecutive years of winter weather patterns, something I'm VERY proud of. However I blew it the past 2 winter seasons. My forecast of a warmer and drier La Nina Winter for 2000-2001 turned out to be cold and dry, HALF WRONG My forecast for a colder and wetter La or El Nothing winter for 2001-2002 turned out to be slightly warmer and wetter, HALF WRONG.

I think we will be seeing periods with a rather persistant negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO) and Positive West Negative East Or Pacific North America (+PNA) upper air height anomaly pattern. This PNA jet stream means a big ridge in the west all the way into the Yukon region of Canada, a deep trough in the eastern U.S. down into the Yucatan region of Mexico and another ridge in the western North Atlantic Ocean. This pattern is also called a dual blocking ridge. This translates into periods of very cold weather for Florida, with crop threatening freezes.

At other times the eventual moderate level El Nino ocean temperature anomaly will flex it's muscle, providing periods of milder and wetter weather for Florida. At times when the stoked up sub tropical jet stream unfortunately flexes it's muscle, Florida and the deep south will see periods of severe weather also.

My 2002-2003 winter weather outlook for Florida (including the eastern U.S.) then is:

We can expect a warm and wet early fall season, thanks to our slowly waning but still kicking summer rainy season. As a matter of fact September and October will be just and extension of summer. The 2002 summer rainy season was amazingly wet, ending our droughty conditions that began in the Spring of 1998.

By mid November we will see a change to colder weather with near to slightly above normal precipitation. The balance of the Winter and Spring should be very changeable, a real battle of the elements in my opinion, with very cold and wet periods, as well as mild and stormy periods.

The winter season as a whole will be a little colder and wetter then normal, with significant freeze threats. A pending record citrus crop and lower prices could be stopped dead in it's tracks. Other more tender vegetable crops and tropical fish farms are also in harms way. My recommendation, have good crop insurance coverage.


NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range.

Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2003 by Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, Formerly Thomas Giella Space & Atmospheric Weather Consulting Services, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.