Published Friday 04/27/01 At 12:00 PM The Florida Daily Tropical Weather Discussion will begin on 5/16/01.
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Published Tuesday 03/13/01 At 4:00 PM Due to increased workload in my business, this daily weather discussion will be discontinued for an indefinite period of time. Thanks to all you have taken the time to visit.
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Published Monday 03/12/01 At 12:00 PM Looks like the weather pattern is shaping up to produce 4-5 consecutive days with heavy thunderstorms, drought busting rains and possible severe weather statewide.

Look for heavy thunderstorms over the north today, central areas Tuesday 03/13 and south Wednesday 03/14, with the advancing cold front. New overrunning rains and thunderstorms break out across central and north Wednesday 04/13, as the warm front lifts north, then thunderstorms once again over the north and central Thursday 03/15 and south Friday 03/16.
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Published Sunday 03/11/01 At 12:00 PM As first "educasted" weeks back, the subtropical jetstream continues to gain strength, moisture and energy. A 500 MB shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will provide our next best chance of widespread drought busting excessive rainfall and severe weather for the state on Monday-Tuesday 03/12-13/01, followed by another system for Thursday-Friday 03/15-16 and then yet another Tuesday/ednesday 03/19-20. We are in a progressive zonal flow, with a series of embedded 500 MB shortwave troughs. This continuing trend has the potential to completely bust the current drought pattern before months end.

I'm really getting sick of listening to the hyped media talk about our 200 year drought. The last time I checked, the earliest accurate record keeping in Florida began in 1890. This current drought is third worst after 1961 and 1938.

Another thing, surface moisture is obviously seriously deficient but our aquifer water levels are not in bad shape at all and nowhere near record lows, thanks to the flooding El Nino rains of 1997-98.

It really get's old watching the media and certain governmental agencies spew leftist agenda alarmist water shortage diatribes on a daily basis, much like glo-bull warming. Florida is not short of water, it's short of long term infrastructure planning,like WATER RESERVOIRS. I used to live in the San Francisco Bay area and Denver, locations with 20 inches of rain per year verus Florida's 55 inches, lot's of people and yes reservoirs, therefore no major water shortages.

Some of our otherwise intelligent and well meaning politicians are snookered with junk science from environmental extremists, because there are not enough well known sources of scientific truth like this website, available to counter the leftist nonsense.
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Published Saturday 03/10/01 At 1:00 PM With little available time for moist return flow to set up, central peninsula rainfall totals yesterday evening were 0.25" or less, with higher totals north central and lower totals south central.

The next good chance of rain and thunderstorms with severe weather possible, will arrive for Tuesday/Wednesday 03/13-14/01. Lates AVN model run QPF progs. 0.75-1.25" totals possible with this next event.
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Published 03/09/01 12:00 PM The statewide cold spot this morning was once again at Nobleton on the central peninsula at 29 deg. Other notable minimum temperatures were 30 deg. at Starke, 32 deg. at Bell and Chiefland in the north, 34 deg. at Brooksville and Plant City, 35 deg. at Palm Bay in central, 33 deg. (31 yesterday) at Archbold and 37 at Ft. Myers in south central/southwest. Private weather stations across inland rural areas of south central/northern Everglades citrus belt were once again in the upper 20's. Frost was scattered accross many inland rural areas this morning.

It looks like a good chance of rain across much of the state today and tonight as a 500 mb shortwave trough races across the state today and tonight, in the stoked up subtropical jetstream. With 500 mb temperatures of approximately -15 deg. C across the peninsula, some storms may produce frequent lightning and hail.

The next best rain chance comes in for Monday/Tuesday 03/12-13/01. Hmmm, strange thing happening here in the state. Talking heads and clueless govt. meteo's. keep saying no drought relief until August, huh???!!!
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Published 03/08/01 4:00 PM The statewide cold spot this morning was 27 deg. in Nobleton on the central peninsula. Other notable temperatures were 28 deg. at Alachua and Glen St. Mary in the north, 30 deg. at Brooksville, 31 deg. at Ockahumpka and 32 deg. in Plant City on central. Archbold in south central was missing but other private weather stations across inland rural areas of south central/northern Everglades citrus belt were in the upper 20's.

With temperatures in the mid and upper 60's, dewpoints have dropped into the 20's once again across many inland rural areas of the peninsula this afternoon, with relative humidities in the teens% range. Tonight will be another cold night with large temperature drops, patchy frost and spotty subfreezing temperatures on portions of the peninsula.

The next rain event arrives for Friday/Saturday 03/09-10/01, with totals expected in the 0.25-1.00" range, with cooler weather once again for the weekend. A big pattern change once again occurs thereafter, with temperatures returning to 10-15 deg. above normal during the week of 03/19/01, spring will spring?!

The workload in my business continues to increase, what recession? so I will stop the "educast" posting on a daily basis after today and only post during any upcoming major weather events.
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Published 03/07/01 3:00 PM The statewide cold spot this morning was 32 deg. at Alachua and Madison in the non peninsula north. Tallahassee and Jacksonville had 33 deg. A secondary cold spot once again occurred in the inland and eastern south central citrus growing areas of the peninsula. Scottsmoor had 35 deg., with Archbold and Ft. Pierce with 36 deg. Plant City in west central had 39 deg.

Mid afternoon dewpoints are running in the low 10's to around 20 deg. from north to south on the peninsula with northerly winds, with the lowest dewpoints along the inland ridge and along the east coast. The Florida west coast and western areas of the inland peninsula are seeing higher dewpoints in the mid 20's to low 30's due, to a continued onshore NW flow from the Gulf Of Mexico but winds will come around to the north in this area also before days end.

Subfreezing temperatures are expected overnight as far south as the inland rural Everglades region, on 40+ deg. overnight temperature drops.

The next best chance of significant statewide rainfall arrives for Friday and Saturday 03/09-10/01.
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Published 03/07/01 11:00 AM WARNING, a potentially significant freeze event is taking shape for tonight and into early Thursday morning 03/08/01 for inland rural areas of the peninsula, as far south as the southern Everglades. Strong DAA continues on NNW-N winds with dewpoints already in the 20's over the southern peninsula and teens elsewhere. As the day progresses downward mixing may allow dew points to crash into the single digits north and central and teens south. Surface winds are expected to decouple after sunset allowing a setup for perfect radiational cooling conditions and crashing temperature falls of 40+ deg. However, the jetstream NW flow out of Canada contains a 120-140 knot jetstream max. which is presently over the the state. This jetmax may introduce cirrus and or cirrostratus during the overnight hours and hold up temperatures. It does appear at this time that the coldest minimum temperatures on the peninsula may occur across the south central/northern Everglades citrus growing region, where tender new branch, leaf and bud growth is extra vulnerable to sub freezing temperatures.
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Published 03/06/01 1:00 PM First the NE snowstorm. I suppose that when you compare the outcome of the storm so far in terms of system placement and amount of snowfall and location, with the many days of media hype and therefore raised expectations, it's the dud of the season. However, the many locations buried under considerable snow depth don't think it's a dud. Funny thing, I went with the available meterological data, like all and alas the storm just didn't phase and come together quite like it could have. Point? because of the media hype, my unscientific gut instinct told me that things wouldn't pan out. It kind of reminds me of Hurricane Bob and Gloria, hyped up east coast duds, thank goodness of course. Excuse me if my memory drudges up the wrong storm names though.

It's now looking like the next s.u.c.k.s. for the weekend of 3/10-11/01 will be more rain and severe weather for most, then snow and ice. However this next storm has the next best potential for another round of drought busting excessive rainfall and severe weather for Florida on Friday/Saturday 03/09-10/01. It all boils down to ample moisture on return flow ahead of the next system. In any event, it's nice to see a fired up subtropical jetstream as educated, especially in the face of a -2 deg. F La Nina anomaly continuing in the Pacific Ocean, go figure?!

Florida can expect another surge of CAA/DAA today on NW-N winds gusting past 30 mph but down from our 40+ mph gusts yesterday, only educated by yours truly:<) Tonight looks to be colder with less onshore trajectory, with spotty sub freezing minimum temperatures in inland rural areas of the peninsula for early Wednesdsy morning 03/07/01. With dying winds the morning of Thursday 03/08/01 promisies more widespread frost and subfreezing temperatures on the peninsula. However it appears that it won't be as cold as I first thought. The polar vortex moved only as far south as VA, versus NC/SC, so the models have backed off on the southward extent of the 0 deg. C line at 850 mb into Florida. As a compromise, it will be warmer then models first indicated but colder then they are indicating with the latest run. Why? same old tired lesson that nobody ever seems to learn, Florida doesn't need sub 0 deg. C 850 mb temperatures for a freeze.

Speaking of cold, the cold spot in the state this morning was 38 deg. at Marianna, Mayo and Bell in the north, with a second cold area along the central and south central interior and east coast, with Archbold at 39 deg., Melbourne and Vero Beach at 41 deg., and Avon Park and Scottsmoor at 43 deg. Why did this happen? trajectory. Locations further west and north had W-NW onshore flow from the Gulf Of Mexico, keeping things warmer. I suspect that this same citrus growing area will see the coldest minimum temperatures of this current cold weather outbreak with sub freezing temperatures. Ironically this area many times, is colder then inland points further north and one day we will see the citrus industry move further south still, south of the big lake, due to globull warming.
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Published 03/05/01 2:30 PM Strong DAA/CAA continues across the state on W-NW winds gusting past 40 mph. At 2:00 PM many major reporting stations reported gusts approaching 40 mph. At my remote weather station in Sumter County, I measured a wind gust from the WNW of 44 mph at 2:15 pm and W at 41 mph here in rural west Plant City.
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Published 03/05/01 12:00 PM As "educasted" the peninsula as a whole received significant drought busting rainfall during the past 24 hours. The top rainfall total was 2.37" at Homestead, 2.25" at west Plant City and 2.18" at Wuamama. Numerous totals between 1-2" were observed statewide. This should reduce the immediate wildfire threat for a while.

A confirmed F0 tornado did considerable damage in the Hudson area of NW Pasco County yesterday morning and more severe weather occurred over south Florida yesterday evening.

The next significant drought busting rain event will arrive by Friday 02/09/01, as the predicted subtropical jetstream continues to grow more active.

Strong CAA is already occurring statewide this morning on NW-N winds gusting past 30 mph, with expected gusts to 40 mph later in the day, especially along the coasts. A secondary cold air surge arrives on Tuesday 03/06/01, setting up a significant freeze across the north central peninsula and a freeze possible into inland rural areas of the south central citrus growing areas on early Wednesday morning 03/07/01.
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Published 03/04/01 3:00 PM The rain has just ended here in rural west Plant City on the central peninsula, total 2.25" in a 5.5 hour period. Appreciable rains have/are fallen/falling across the south central desert and are now moving into SW-SSW areas like Ft. Myers.

Next comes the 72 hour 60-70 deg. temperature drop!

NWS Tampa Bay NEXRAD Radar Image Of Rains In South Central Desert

NWS Key West NEXRAD Radar Image Of Rains Moving Into SW-SSW Area Of Peninsula

Unfortunately when all is said and done, leftist thinkers in the state government and media will ignore the widespread rain event and scream continued 200 year drought, desertification and seize personal property for months to come. By the way another rain event is on the way for the end of this upcoming week.
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Published 03/04/01 1:00 PM It's now been raining heavily over large portions of the central peninsula for 4-6 hours AND heavy thunderstorms are now moving across the Florida desert of the south central peninsula. No new severe weather warnings have been issued since the 11:11 AM severe thunderstorm warning for Manatee County but more are expected as the line moves across the southern peninsula.

Now let's talk cold and snow. As best I can tell the four day track error for the main surface low is off by 75-100 miles. Obviously an error like that can move the swath of heaviest snow +/- many miles. I want to avoid changing with each model run, as one private weather company keeps doing. Anyway early on it looked like the heaviest snow totals would be from DCA/BWI through Philly, NYC and Martha's. The latest trend is looking like alot of rain for DCA/BWI changing over to snow sometime tonight, with snow totals of 4-8". Philly, NYC and Martha's lot's of rain, with an eventual changeover to snow of 4-10". The heart of Pa., inland NY state as in Peekskill, inland CT as in Danbury/Waterbury, inland Ma. as in Springfield/Worcester/Boston marking the southern boundry of heaviest snow, may see 24-42". On the coast from Va. to Ma. prolonged gale force to hurricane force winds, flooding storm surge and erosion, structural damage and power outages. Am I confident of this prognosis? not yet. We will all have a better idea tomorrow and until then coastal areas should not let their guard down, as far as heavy snowfall totals. Anyway some areas of the mid Atlantic and New England seem destined for another March 1993 storm or February 1979, as far as snowfall totals. By the way wrap around snow flurries will occur as far south as central Alabama, Georgia and the Carolina's.

Now on to Florida, holy cow the polar vortex is progged as far south as the Carolina's by mid week. I can't remember it ever actually moving that far south?! If it occurs and it were 30-60 days earlier, we would probably see all time record low temperatures for the sunshine state. In any event we will see dramatic (CAA) cold air advection on Monday and Tuesday on NW-N winds of 25-40 mph and maximum temperatures struggling to get out of the 40's over north central, only around 50 central, mid 50's to around 60 south. If the arctic surface high pressure system moves over the state early Wednesday morning 02/07/01, a hard freeze could occur into the south central/northern Everglades citrus growing region. Am I actually forecasting this event? NO, I don't forecast anymore. I conduct education discussions of possible future weather events.
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Published 03/04/01 11:00 AM Severe thunderstorms and a radar confirmed tornado struck coastal areas of Pinellas, Pasco and Hernando County's at approximately 7:45 AM. A tornado warning was issued for the Hudson/Spring Hill area at approximately 8:05 AM, with considerable wind damage reported in the area by 8:15 AM. See following links to NWS NEXRAD radar.

NWS Tampa Bay NEXRAD 8:04 AM Radar Image Of Tornado

NWS Tampa Bay NEXRAD 8:33 AM Radar Image Of Bow Echo Of Severe Thunderstorm Cells

IR Satellite Image Of Squall Line

WV Satellite Image Of Squall Line

8:55 AM Lightning Signature Of Squall Line

As the squall line has temporarily slowed it's forward progress, torrential flash flooding rains with entraining lines of thunderstorms are occurring across large portions of the north central and west central areas of the peninsula. Heavy rains have been falling continuously for 1.5 hours and still coming down, at my location in rural west Plant City. Unfortunately the rains have not made it yet to the Florida desert region of SE Hillsborough, southern Polk, Hardee, Desoto and Highlands County's, where the KB drought idex is above 700.
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Published 03/04/01 5:00 AM Latest radar and satellite imagery indicates that the squall line is intensifying, with several bow echo features. The line is slowing down as expected and it appears that it will push onshore the west coast between 7:00 and 9:00 AM. The line is expected to accelerate across the southern peninsula later today, limiting rainfall totals but increasing the chances for severe weather. It appears that rainfall totals will be less then originally thought but more then my last estimate 5 hours earlier.

My biggest concern for severe weather continues to be coastal north central later this morning and then the southern peninsula later in the day.
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Published 03/04/01 12:00 AM Tremendous drought ending rains occurred acros the deep south today, with 6-9" totals. That leaves only the state of Florida in droughty conditions, with KB values well above 600 in many areas on the central peninsula and even exceeding 700 in some areas south central, an area repeatedly missed by what rain has fallen this winter. A very warm and breezy early Sunday morning is underway with temperatures in the 70's outside of rain areas, as would be expected ahead of a major winter weather season. The squall line of thunderstorms is approaching Tallahassee at this time and the lightning signature with the line is very impressive and extends well out into the Gulf Of Mexico west of Tampa Bay. Looking at the latest models AND more importantly satellite imagery, I see most of the energy being shunted north of the peninsula, not unusual. With this trend continuing overnight, plus with the squall line accelerating in speed, this will result in lesser precipitation amounts, coverage and duration then first thought, especially over southern areas of the peninsula. Many areas will see appreciable rainfall and other areas very little. As I've said so many times recently, it's hard to get it to rain during a drought, an oxymoron? Severe weather is still possible over portions of the peninsula late tonight and into the daylight hours and I see no change for prospects of cold weather, IT WILL TURN MUCH MUCH COLDER, with subfreezing temperatures into many areas of the peninsula. The airmass headed our way produced the coldest temperatures of the winter season across much of inland New England in the past 48 hours.
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Published 03/03/01 3:30 PM As mentioned would happen, very high temperatures and strong pre frontal winds are occurring across the state. At 3:00 pm JFK Space Center had 90 deg., Melbourne 89 deg. and Kissimmee 88 deg., Lakeland SW 21 G 35 mph, St. Petersburg S 29 G 36 mph., B.P. at Pensacola is 29.62" and at Plant City 29.80".

The squall line of heavy thunderstorms is presently back over Lousiana and it appears that the heaviest thunderstorms will now move through the Tampa Bay are well after sun up Sunday morning, increasing the risk for severe weather.
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Published 03/03/01 1:00 PM The latest unfolding scenario for the mid Atlantic and New England coastlines; incredible snow depths, hurricane force winds, coastal flooding and erosion, much property damage possible and potential loss of life.

Wrap around snow flurries will visit southern Alabama and Georgia, not quite to the Florida Panhandle this time.

The latest scenario for Florida, severe weather today across the panhandle region and north. A squall line with locally heavy rains and flash flooding tonight across the central peninsula, with some coastal flooding possible; entering north central around 12:00 midnight with severe cells possible, across the Tampa Bay area at around sunrise, with little in the way of severe weather and then through the rest of the peninsula during the day Sunday, with a flare up once again of locally severe cells.

Then the cold weather expodes in on 30+ mph NW-N winds Sunday night and Monday, with 72 hour temperature drops of 60-70 deg. and a significant freeze for a large portion of the peninsula on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings and a full week of cold weather.

In a like a lion, as first mentioned approximately two weeks ago.
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Published 03/02/01 5:00 PM The latest run of the AVN models progs. the 850 MB 0 deg. Celsius line south of Ft. Myers By Monday morning.

03/02/01 Run Of The AVN Model For 1200 UTC Monday Morning 03/05/01 For 850 MB Temperature
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Published 03/02/01 3:00 PM We should see increasing SW surface flow overnight, with gusts on Saturday afternoon 03/03/01 of 30+ mph. We may also see near or record breaking maximum temperatures inland and along the east coast. It appears as though the heaviest thunderstorms should move through during the early morning hours of Sunday 03/04/01, which may help limit severe weather potential to north central and northern areas.

I have increasing confidence that the surface low will undergo bombogenisis along the North Carolina coast on Sunday/Monday and this would force the 850 mb 0 deg. celsius line into deep south Florida and once again as mentioned previously, create a significant freeze threat for a large portion of the peninsula. Ultimately some areas will experience a 60-70 deg. temperature between Sunday and Tuesday.

Portions of the U.S. east coast will be dealing with a serious snow event, with flurries into the deep south.
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Published 03/02/01 11:00 AM The past 24 hour temperature extremes are 91 deg.(suspect) at Hialeah and 53 deg. (a rarity) at Ft. Myers.

What are the models saying today? Using the AVN, as it's latest run has once again initialized best with current reality, during a 36 hour period beginning on Sunday morning at 11:00 am, (QPF) precipitation amounts of 1.5"-0.5" for the state, from north to south. The MRF MOS calls for rain probabilities of around 60% Sunday for Orlando and Tampa.

The models will vary daily +/- as far as rainfall probabilities and amounts, a normal occurrence but the state is in for widespread drought denting rains and severe weather. Severe weather will be most prevelant over the north and north central.

By the way this developing weather pattern bears some similarities to the weather pattern that produced the cold core bombogenesis low of March 1993, nicknamed the "no name" storm by an ignorant media, who looked at it as an out of season warm core hurricane. Am I forecasting another east coast bomb? NO, as bombogenesis in the Gulf Of Mexico only occurs once every 20 years on average but is it possible? YES, especially as it moves up the east coast.

More probable is a crop threatening freeze into portions of the peninsula between the 6th and 8th but it's to early to say how cold and how far south, but growers should pay close attention to this developing weather senario!
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Published 03/01/01 10:00 AM What are the models saying? Using the AVN, as it's latest run has initialized best with current reality, during a 36 hour period beginning on Saturday morning at 8:00 am, (QPF) precipitation amounts of 2.5"-3.5" for the whole of the state. The MRF MOS calls for rain probabilities of around 30% Saturday, 70% Sunday and 80% Monday for Orlando and Tampa.
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Published 02/28/01 5:00 PM The past 24 hour temperature extremes are 53 deg. at Cross City and 92 deg. at Archbold. During the past 72 hours the barometric pressure has dropped from 30.33" to 29.94", in response to the major weather pattern change we are now beginning to undergo.

There is a high confidence for substantial to excessive rainfall and severe weather for the state between Saturday 03/03/01 and Monday 03/05/01. A significant freeze event will occur for portions of the state for Tuesday/Wednesday 03/06-07/01.

The following are climatological statistics for Plant City for winter 2000-2001:

February 2001 Plant City-
Mean Max 77.8 +3.2 Deg
Mean Min 55.7 +6.2 Deg
Mean Mo. 66.8 +4.8 Deg
Precip. 1.17" -2.31"

January 2001 Plant City-
Mean Max 67.2 -6.0 Deg
Mean Min 38.3 -10.0 Deg
Mean Mo. 52.8 -7.9 Deg
Precip. 2.06" -0.41"

December 2000 Plant City-
Mean Max 69.7 -5.2 Deg
Mean Min 47.8 -2.5 Deg
Mean Mo. 58.8 -3.8 Deg
Precip. 2.73" +0.40"

November 2000 Plant City-
Mean Max 76.0 -3.8 Deg
Mean Min 52.4 -3.4 Deg
Mean Mo. 64.2 -3.6 Deg
Precip. 1.46" -0.64"

October 2000 Plant City-
Mean Max 82.9 -3.1 Deg
Mean Min 61.7 -1.7 Deg
Mean Mo. 72.3 -2.4 Deg
Precip. .06" -2.25"
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Published 02/28/01 8:00 AM For approximately two weeks I've been warning of a big weather pattern change BACK to colder and wetter weather, all the while the talking heads in the media have been lamenting on a daily basis that no relief from the drought will occur until the summer rainy season, NONSENSE.

Northern hemispheric teleconnections are screaming drought busting rainfall in Florida and all forecast models are doing the same. It appears that severe weather with excessive rainfall potential is likely this weekend, with subfreezing temperatures into portions of the inland rural peninsula by the middle of next week.
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Published 02/27/01 8:00 PM The past 24 hour temperature extremes are 49 at Madison and 89 at Archbold and Belle Glade.

Born of opposing seabreezes colliding, a hefty and near solid line of thunderstorms exploded between 6:00 and 6:15 pm this evening, over the inland ridge area of the state, from Ocala to Sebring!

02/27/01 6:15 PM NWS Tampa Bay NEXRAD radar image of line of heavy thunderstorms

Though still overlooked by the media, rainfall prospects continue to improve for the state during the next seven days.
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Published 02/26/01 5:00 PM As always, I was saddened upon hearing about the tornado related deaths in northern Mississippi yesterday. Weather forecasting can be so impersonal but never was for me. When I was a gainfully employed weather forecaster I always awaited with dread at the deaths that I new would/could follow the weather forecast I had just issued. I would almost always get an inkling, that funny feeling in the pit of the stomach, that bad was going to happen.

In the last paragraph of my 02/24/01 11:00 AM post I alluded to the something bad fixing to happen feeling by saying, "also as previously mentioned, it appears that the northern part of the state is in for some severe weather during the next 72 hours. Also I would not like to be living near the triple or maybe even quadruple point in Arkansas today, yikes."However I've always felt it taboo to come right out and say, "well best as I can tell people are going to die today".

The past 24 hour temperature extremes are 56 and and 90 at Archbold in south central.

The powerful line of thunderstorms that raked portions of our NW panhandle and Gulf Of Mexico yesterday evening and overnight, have all but fizzled now, with only a small area of rainshowers west of Hernando and Pasco County's.

As the attendant 500 mb shortwave trough has now passed north of the peninsula, all the while weakening and heading for the mid Atlantic and the weak vorticity maximum has already crossed the state, there is now no real mechanism left for any significant precipitation.

The upcoming work week promises a couple of arctic airmass invasions into New England and into Texas, with a piece of California cutoff low #2 getting caught up in the polar jet stream and promising another round of severe weather, snow and ice for portions of the eastern 2/3's of the U.S. Florida stays very warm and mainly dry until Thursday 03/01/01, when colder and wetter weather begins arriving. The weekend of Saturday 03/03/01 may see significant precipitation in many areas of drought stricken Florida.
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Published 02/25/01 12:00 PM The past 24 hour temperature extremes are 52 at Jasper and 88 at Ft. Myers. Some appreciable rains fell along the space coast yesterday with notable totals of 1.90" at Scottsmoor and 1.31" at Titusville. Smaller amounts of .02-.32" fell further inland and northward.

Rainfall prospects for Monday 02/26/01 look like 50% north, 40% north central, 30% central, 20% south central and south, with similar prospects for Tuesday 02/27/01. Once again best chances will be on Thursday 03/01/01.
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Published 02/24/01 11:00 AM The past 24 hour temperature extremes are 49 at Pensacola and 87 at Ft. Myers. Some appreciable rains fell along the space coast yesterday evening and overnight, in conjunction with a back door cold frontal boundry and should continue today.

Today with temperatures in the 80's, relatively moist PWAT's of 1.25" or better, sea breeze interactions, an approaching shear axis in the Gulf Of Mexico, a backdoor stationary frontal boundry across the peninsula and weak vorticity, there should be isolated to scattered convection across the peninsula. Rain chances today look to be around 30%, decrease somewhat for Sunday to 20% but increasing again for Monday to 40%.

Unfortunately once again though, with the nearby weak 500 mb high block shunting the next 500 mb shortwave north of the peninsula, the three day period will NOT feature any widespread rains across the peninsula. Also as previously mentioned, it appears that the northern part of the state is in for some severe weather during the next 72 hours. Also I would not like to be living near the triple or maybe even quadruple point in Arkansas today, yikes.

The next really good chance of rain comes in on Thursday 03/01/01, as the big pattern change to colder and wetter weather begins.
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Published 02/23/01 11:00 AM The cold spot in the state this morning was 47 deg. at Pensacola in the NW panhandle.

For whatever it's worth, earlier this week the coldest minimum temperature ever observed in the northern hemisphere since man began observations of course, was observed in Siberian Russia. It's interesting that such a cold airmass would occur so late in the season and I'm confident that Siberian Russia is seeing it's coldest winter on record. DARNED GLOBAL WARMING PROBLEM REARS IT'S UGLY HEAD AGAIN.

For the first time in a good while, the models have reversed themselves with each run and are now calling for increased rain chances for Saturday/Sunday 02/24-25/01, 50/40/30% north to south across the state. I'm probably the only one to have mentioned it so far and will again, there is potential for severe weather across the north on Saturday and Sunday.

Our next and best rain chance yet, will occur on Thursday 03/01/01, as we undergo a huge pattern change to colder and wetter weather, with a freeze potential on portions of the peninsula during the first two weeks of March. I've been discussing this pattern change for about two weeks I think.

Back on 10/01/00 I had forecasted slightly below normal temperature and near normal precipitation and I was wrong. February 2001 is turning out to be in the top 5 warmest February's on record, reversing the trend of below to much below normal temperature we had seen from October 2000-January 2001.
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Published 02/22/01 8:00 PM The 72 hour temperature extremes are 44 deg. at Archbold in south central and 85 deg. at Ft. Myers and Leesburg in the southwest and north central.

Fairly large and light to moderate patches of rain and showers occured over the central peninsula yesterday and today, with warm temperatures in the low to mid 80's, relatively high PWAT's on southerly flow and nearby weak vorticity.

Our next chance of rain will be Sunday/Monday 02/24-25/01 but with most of the energy staying north of the state on a slightly anticyclonic zonal flow, it should be another weather dud with only 40/30/20% rain chances from north to south. However some severe weather is possible for the western panhandle.

Teleconnections continue to point to a very active, cold and wet pattern during the first two weeks of March.
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Published 02/22/01 8:00 AM I've been so busy with my sign and website business that I haven't had time to do any serious analysis or posting in the past 3 days. Briefly during the next 7-10 day period it looks like another big storm for California, a serious severe outbreak for the southern plains and southern Mississippi River valley, a couple of snow storms for the east coast, cold weather from the central great plains to the mid Atlantic and mild to cool and relatively dry for the deep south and Florida. We are still confident that March will bring beneficial rains due to a more active subtropical jet (STJ), however we must get rid of the persistent high block that has been lingering near Florida for the past 3-4 weeks. It looks to me like a La Nina high block and as one CASI member posted in the past 24 hours and I've also mentioned lately, La Nina is still alive though in a weakened state. It's existence will serve to put a damper somewhat on the potency of the STJ, compared to normal.
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Published 02/19/01 11:00 AM The tentative past 24 hour temperature extremes are 30 deg. at Crestview in the NW panhandle and 82 deg. at Ft. Myers along the SW gulf coast.

The second large brush fire of 1000's of acres in recent weeks is burning to my NE in Polk County. My location is choked by thick smoke and the acrid odor of the fire this morning, on NE winds.

Here in the sunshine state, it looks like our next best chance of rain (30-40%)will be Thursday/Friday 02/22-23/01, with more moisture returning on SE-S flow, compared to the last non event. We still appear safe from the next and coldest arctic air outbreak of the season, at this time. This arctic airmass appears to be the coldest since December 1989.

However teleconnection patterns continue to signal an increasingly negative NAO and more "consistent" cross polar flow of arctic air into the lower 48 states, beginning the last week of February and into the first week of March. I suppose some may not heed my warning, after being wrong about winters resurgence for this month but using teleconnection patterns for long range outlooks has only failed me three times in 28 years!

Here in Florida a hard freeze threat lessens climatologically by the beginning of March but "a threat is possible" during this period, as March should come roaring in like a lion. Hard freezes have certainly occured in the past during this time of the season and agricultural and utility interests should pay close attention to the weather.

Our outlook for February issued on 10/01/01 called for slightly below normal temperature and near normal precipitation. This will not verify, though our outlooks for October 2000 through January 2001 did.

We are also still confident that a more active subtropical jetstream wil bring drought denting rains to the state in March. Our outlook for March issued on 10/01/01, calls for near normal temperature and precipitation.

One last note, our east coast should be buffeted once again today by strong and gusty onshore flow and a broken SC deck.
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Published 02/19/01 11:00 AM The tentative past 24 hour temperature extremes are 34 deg. at Crestview in the NW panhandle and a sizzling 92 deg. at Hialeah along the SE gold coast. A maximum temperature above 90 deg. in February, though not unheard of, is very rare.

As the earth's atmosphere lags behind the currently increasing sun angle in mid February, we have amassing north of the border the coldest arctic airmass of the season, with 850 mb temps. of colder then -40 deg. celsius. Unfortunately this bitter airmass will begin spilling SE into the eastern U.S. this upcoming week via the Great Lakes and upper midwest and spread eastward towards New England and the mid Atlantic and also penetrate into the deep south towards Florida.

02/17/01 Run Of ECMWF Model For 850 MB Temperature For Monday 02/19/01. You can see the pooled arctic airmass with temps. of colder then -40 deg. c beginnning it's southeastward movement

Agriculture interests should keep a close eye on the unfolding weather this upcoming work week and not take things lightly, as a similar pattern in February 1989, did ultimately result in a hard freeze.

However, it appears that our state and it's recovering agriculture interests will probably be spared this bitter arctic regime, as my favorite model says we should be protected by the split PNA pattern and be in a zonal flow under the subtropical jetstream. Also a weak resurgence of the previously stubborn and strong high block of the previous two weeks, centered over Cuba may occur.
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Published 02/17/01 11:00 AM The tentative past 24 hour temperature extremes are 45 deg. at Pensacola in the NW panhandle and a scorching 87 deg. at Orlando on the central peninsula.

As of 10:00 AM With little chance for moist return flow, we have a wimpy line of dying light rainshowers over the north central peninsula, perfectly progged by the ETA model.

The cold front will move across the peninsula today, ushering in much colder weather, with subfreezing temperatures returning to the north and near freezing with frost inland rural areas of north central. As the surface high will remain far to the north of the state, basically we are looking at a quick two day cold shot for Sunday/Monday 02/18-19/01, followed by three days with above normal temperature on return flow for Tuesday-Thursday 02/20-22/01, then a better rain chance (30-50%) for Thursday/Friday, followed by colder weather again for Friday/Saturday 02/23-24/01.

The 10 period looks pretty ominous for areas of the great lakes, mid west, mid Atlantic and New England regions, with a series of cross polar shots of arctic air. The deep south and Florida should be protected by the split flow subtropical jet stream.
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Published 02/15/01 5:00 PM The official past 24 hour temperature extremes are 51 deg. and 86 deg. at Archbold in the south central. Here in Plant City in west central, I had a maximum temperature today of 84 deg., 16 deg. above normal, this mornings minimum temperature of 58 deg. was 10 deg. above normal. At 10:00 am this morning the surface barometric pressure is lower then during the past 72 hours at 10:00 am, at 30.15", a signal that the high pressure block still south and east of the peninsula, is continuing it's slow weakening and eastward shift.

It appears that the persistent 500 mb cutoff low wreaking havoc over the SW deserts is slowly becoming part of the southern subtropical jetstream, with it's surface reflection in Texas. It looks like a 40-30-20% chance of rain for the state from north to south on Saturday 02/17/01, with much colder weather for Sunday 02/18/01 through the upcoming work week. It looks like a light freeze across the north and near freezing with with frost into portions of the inland rural peninsula for Monday/Tuesday 02/19-20/01.

In the longer term periods of cross polar flow and an active subtropical jetsream will keep things interesting for the balance of this month and possibly into the first week of March, with cold weather, snow and ice for the east and yes even rain for Florida!!!

I remember a very active first week of March 1980 with snow and ice from Pensacola and Tallahassee to Washington, D.C. and a hard freeze into the central peninsula. I don't remember the exact day but I was living and working in D.C. while an AG2 (Aerographers Mate) in the military and was building my first LED digital electronic thermometer I owned, a Heathkit! while it snowed like you know what, with the temperature in the low teens.
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Published 02/14/01 11:00 PM The official past 24 hour temperature extremes are 49 deg. at Mayo in the non panhandle north and 86 deg. at Ft. Myers in the southwest.

I've given the attack on myself during the past two days by Enrico Palazzo and a few other misfits alot of thought this evening. Basically it's a sign of continued societal collapse in this country. Incivility is rampant everywhere, whether it be on the Internet or freeway and classroom, with a gun. It's amazing how brave people can be in anonymity on the Internet or in a speeding car or behind a gun. It's also a sign of another societal cancer called political correctness, where demonstrated intelligence, knowledge, confidence and morality is attacked as arrogance, by the thought police, due to leftist political dogma, personal biases, jealousies and insecurities. Today the moron, the follower, the underachiever, the taker, the lazy, the criminal is revered, what a shame.
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Published 02/14/01 6:00 PM Check out some love letters in my website Guest Book to me on Valentines Day, from the president of my fan club, Enrico Palazzo:<) To all my fans and foes, professional and amateur, government and private sector. I apologize for my until now unrealized arrogance.
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Published 02/14/01 12:00 PM Happy Valentines Day :<)The tentative past 24 hour temperature extremes are 54 deg. at Jacksonville in the non panhandle north and 86 deg. at Ft. Myers in the southwest. Here in Plant City in west central, I had a maximum temperature yesterday of 81 deg., 13 deg. above normal, this mornings minimum temperature of 63 deg. was 15 deg. above normal. At 10:00 am this morning the surface barometric pressure is lower then during the past 48 hours at 10:00 am, at 30.24", a signal that the solid rock of a 588-591 dcm high pressure block still south of the peninsula, is beginning it's weakening and eastward shift. By the weekend it will be gone and not make a return for the rest of the month and be replaced by a broad 500 mb trough anchored at about 80-82 deg. west longitude.

The next two week period will be much colder on average across the country, east of the Rockies, including Florida, as the high pressure block will be gone, the NAO will be negative and we will have periods (NOT PERSISTENT) cross polar flow, allowing 3-4 shots of arctic air to enter the country and periods of ice and snow to occur. As we already addressed, will there be 100+ year coldwave? NO and I didn't forecast it, which is why I archive previous posts on this site, go read. Will it be cold? YES, very cold at times.

As far as our state, after 8 days of above normal maximum temperatures in the 70's and 80's, with minimum temperatures in the 50's and 60's on the peninsula, the change back to colder weather, which will begin this weekend, will be very noticable. We may ultimately go from 10-15 deg. above normal to 10-15 deg. below normal, during the next two weeks. Will we see sub freezing temperatures on the peninsula again? YES. Will we see a statewide wide hard freeze? yesterday I said NO, today I say probably not. We of course are seeing a higher sun angle with daily average temperature climbing every day, as we moved towards Spring. Climatologically, statewide hard freezes become less likely during the second half of February but of course they have happened many times and into the first half of March.

With periods of cross polar flow during the next two weeks, arctic air will be repeatedly headed SE towards the state. However a stronger and more active subtropical jetstream (split flow PNA pattern) should act to shield the state from the coldest of the air and increase precipitation chances, as each new cold front heads for the sunshine state.

In a normal Florida winter the subtropical jetstream is more active, with more Gulf Of Mexico cyclogenisis and precipitation, especially over the panhandle which really has no profound dry season like the peninsula. However La Nina strongly disrupted the pattern last winter and has done so again this winter, albiet in a weaker fashion. La Nina was expected to be completely gone by now but made a minor comeback this winter season. La Nina is the culprit of our two year plus drought. Ironically during 1997 and 1998 El Nino created tremendous flooding statewide and yearly rainfall totals of 150-200%, feast to famine! Therefore even though surface moisture is very deficient most areas, especially south central, aquifer levels are not in that bad a shape.
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Published 02/13/01 12:00 PM Has anyone noticed the -20 to -30 deg. temperatures poised to spill across the border into Montana and North Dakota? associated with the cross polar flow!

The past 24 hour temperature extremes are 48 deg. at Jasper in the non panhandle north and 88 deg. at Punta Gorda and Ft. Myers in southwest. Here in Plant City in west central, I had a maximum temperature yesterday of 82 deg., 14 deg. above normal, this mornings minimum temperature of 64 deg. was 16 deg. above normal. At 10:00 am this morning the surface barometric pressure is once again 30.33", a reflection of the solid rock of a 588 dcm high pressure block still nearly overhead the peninsula.

With a stationary front once again draped across the north central peninsula, huge temperature differences occurred across the state yesterday afternoon, with 52 deg. at St. Augustine, 54 deg. at Palm Coast and 57 deg. at Jacksonville, versus the 88 deg. readings further south. During the evening hours showers and isolated thunderstorms once again broke out along the west coast, south of Tampa Bay.

CLARIFICATION TIME. After my 02/12/01 6:00 pm post I received over 100 emails from around North America(none from CASI members)screaming at me me over the apparent flip flop on my long range forecast, one said, "how can you talk for 35 straight days about the coldest outbreak in 100+ years and then stop dead in your tracks and say it's not going to happen?" Well first of all I'm no longer in the forecasting business. These posts are not operational forecasts, rather they are educational discussions designed to showcase Florida's complicated weather patterns and to dispel certain inaccurate "chamber of commerce" climatic myths.

Two or three times, in the form of an analogy, I among others, mentioned the possibility of a 100+ year cross polar Siberian Russia Arctic air intrusion into North America and the U.S., including Florida. Using the same method of expression, I also pointed out how our current weather pattern resembles February 1993, prior to the now infamous March 1993 east coast bomb. Now, I did not forecast a repeat of the February 1899 cold wave nor am I forecasting a repeat of the March 1993 east coast storm. What I did forecast was a prolonged cross polar arctic air intrusion and entrenched 500 mb longwave trough into the eastern 2/3's of U.S. for the last two weeks of February. I stick by my forecast now that the PROLONGED aspect will not happen. I DON'T SPIN MY FORECASTS/OUTLOOKS. WHEN I'M WRONG I'M WRONG, PERIOD.

In my long range outlooks I use a method called 500 mb telleconnection repeatability, with only minor emphasis on long range models. The method has a high degree of accuracy if interpreted correctly and is used by only two or three other (unnamed) Meteorologists. Basically winter weather patterns can swing like a pendulum from one extreme to the other over an approximate 30-45 day period. The telleconnection pattern of the past 30 days led me and several others to read a prolonged cross polar arctic intrusion pattern return, much like mid December/January. Sometimes these patterns don't swing completely the other way though and that's what I'm seeing now, kinda like the brakes were suddenly applied. Also the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) seems to be headed back into a negative phase, which brings a cold weather pattern back to the eastern U.S. but this is only one piece of the big puzzle, also another important difference between now and December is a more active southern subtropical jetstream. This will act to bring drought busting rains to Florida and add fuel to the fire for future ice and snow in the eastern U.S.

YES, cross polar flow will and is now occurring but it will not be prolonged, more in spurts during the next 2-3 weeks. Yes it will get very cold and snowy at times during the next 2-3 weeks in the eastern U.S. Will Florida stay in the 80's/60's and dry?, NO. Colder and wetter weather returns to the state beginning Sunday 02/18/01, as the high block weakens and moves ENE. Will subfreezing minimum temperatures return to portions of the peninsula during the last half of this month? YES. Will a 100+ year hard freeze occur, NO. Will a March 1993 cold core bomb visit the east coast again? beats me!

Bottom line? It's funny how people can misinterpret discussions and even forecasts/outlooks, depending on their own personal bias.
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Published 02/12/01 6:00 PM As forecasted earlier today, rainshowers and thunderstorms are forming inland of the west coast, this time south of Tampa Bay. It pretty looks like a summerlike seabreeze collision.

The latest look at the long range models and more importantly now once again changing northern hemisphere telleconnection pattern, indicates that the expected PROLONGED cross polar arctic air intrusion and two week cold weather pattern for Florida and the eastern U.S. will probably not occur. Certainly there will be colder weather during the balance of the month but probably no crop threatening PENINSULA WIDE hard freeze.

My accuracy rate on all freeze incidents and pattern changes, including my winter outlook, issued on 10/01/2000 was at 100%. Well it just went down the tubes but if you must be wrong and yes even I'm wrong on occasion :<)it's best that it be warmer then forecasted. My overall accuracy rate on Florida freezes between 1976 and 2001 remains near 98%.
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Published 02/12/01 1:00 PM The past 24 hour temperature extremes are 37 deg. at Geneva in the north and 88 deg. at Archbold in south central. Here in Plant City in west central, I had a maximum temperature of 85 deg., 17 deg. above normal, this mornings minimum temperature of 64 deg. was 16 deg. above normal. At 10:00 am this morning the surface barometric pressure was 30.33", a reflection of the solid rock of a 589 dcm high pressure block overhead, which will eventually move east, not west as some models have progged, keeping the door open for lot's of moisture and future snow and ice for the eastern U.S.

With the yesterday's record heat, high low and mid level atmospheric moisture (PWAT 1.27") and a diffuse stationary front across the central peninsula, thunderstorms erupted along the west gulf coast yesterday evening from Pinellas County northward through Pasco, Hernando and Citrus Counties. Fortunately though with the attendent lightning (potential fires)the storms quickly moved NW out over the Gulf Of Mexico.

I have a good friend Ed Wilson, K4UCQ, (local sage who has forgotten more then I've ever known)remark to me in an email this morning that the weather pattern we are currently in is similar to February 1993, prior to the now infamous March cold core winter bombogenesis low, that brought snow to the western panhandle, 100+ mph winds in severe thunderstorms, an 8 foot storm surge along the gulf coast and then a hard freeze.

His analysis/memory is correct but of course I'm not forecasting another "no name storm", the title an ignorant local press gave the storm, as though it was a warm core out of season unnamed hurricane. Climatologically we only see cold core low bombogenesis once every 20 years. However I am forecasting a wet and stormy March for our state, going back to October 1, 2000.

As already mentioned a million times in previous days, cold weather begins a return on Saturday 02/17/01 but it remains to be seen if the second half of the month will be cold enough to offset the warm first half of the month and average out the month below normal, as I forecasted it to be, going back to October 1, 2000.

By the way, with similar heat, moisture, frontal boundry in the vicinity as yesterday, plus a minor vorticity maximum, more isolated to scattered convection is possible again later today.
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Published 02/11/01 3:00 PM No subfreezing minimum teperatures have occurred in the state during the past 48 hours. With a stationary front lying across the central peninsula, huge temperature differences have been occurring across the state. On Saturday 02/10/01 temperature extremes were 60/40 at Crestview in the western panhandle and 88/59 at Ft. Myers on the SW peninsula. Similar temperature extremes are occurring once again today with Pensacola at 58 and Punta Gorda at 86 at 2:00 PM.

Blocking high pressure will continue through the upcoming week, with warm to hot and possibly record breaking maximum temperatures occurring across portions of the peninsula. The long advertized weather pattern (01/08) change begins on Saturday 02/17/01, with much colder and wetter weather moving into the state.
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Published 02/10/01 2:00 PM Our present 500 mb weather pattern with persistent blocking high pressure in the vicinity of the state and attendent dry weather, with temperatures in the 80's/50's reminds me of February 1989. The month saw weeks of very warm weather, followed by a very abrupt hard freeze. The following data comes from my personal weather records near Bushnell.

1989
2/21 87/63
2/22 73/49
2/23 51/27 0.10" Snow
2/24 44/19
2/25 60/13
2/26 69/21
2/27 72/32
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Published 02/09/01 12:00 PM No subfreezing minimum teperatures have occurred in the state during the past 24 hours and maximum temperatures on Thursday 02/08/01 were in the mid 70's to low 80's statewide. This warm and dry pattern will hold through much of next week.

Incredibly cold cross polar arctic values for February, will scream into most of the eastern U.S. during the week of the 12th, however we should be safe from crop damaging cold until the week of the 19th. Unfortunately our 10 day warm spell will remove much of the cold hardiness that our citrus trees have attained due to recent prolonged cool to cold weather, not a good thing.

One last note, expect severe weather in the deep south during the next 24 hours, possibly including our panhandle area, also 70 deg. warmth into the midwest and parts of the mid Atlantic states ahead of the arctic cold front!
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Published 02/08/01 11:00 AM No subfreezing minimum temperatures have occurred in the state during the past 24 hours. It appears that temperatures will run 5-15 deg. above normal through most of next week, with small rain chances during the weekend.

Currently a strong 500 mb trough is wreaking havoc over the western 2/3's of the country, with a warm, dry and strong 590m dcm blocking high east of the state. Telleconnections and models continue to indicate a tremendous pattern change back to bitter cold arctic air on cross polar flow for the eastern 1/3 of the U.S. beginning on Monday 02/12/01, as a prolonged 500 mb trough sets up. We have been warning of this pattern change for exactly 30 days now and have been ridiculed in the process by forces that don't believe in accurate long range weather forecasting.

The week of the 12th will be a period of transition for the state, with crop threatening arctic air arriving for the week of the 19th, though possibly earlier. One positive note though, the 590 dcm blocking high to our east will fight to hold it's ground and will be beaten back incrementally. This means a prolonged period of SW flow and drought busting rains for the state during the interim, with severe weather also possible.
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Published 02/07/01 4:00 PM The statewide minimum temperature for early this morning was 29 deg. at Alachua in the non panhandle north. The cold spot on the peninsula was 32 deg. at Nobleton.

Today began a warming trend that will last through Wednesday 02/14/01. The period Thursday-Sunday 02/15-18 will be a transitional period with a chance of precipitation, with much colder weather returning for the week of the 19th.

Telleconnections have been and now even models are beginning to hint at the big change.
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Published 02/06/01 10:00 PM The inland rural central peninsula has seen temperature drops of 30+ deg. since sunset, from the low 70's to upper 30's to low 40's. However a light onshore flow from the NE should keep temperatures nearly steady or a very slow fall for the rest of the night. Isolated pockets of near or subfreezing minimum temperatures should still occur in coldest sheltered areas.
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Published 02/06/01 3:00 PM It turns out that the statewide minimum temperature early this morning was 23 deg. at Archbold in the heart of the citrus industry, on the south central peninsula. The 23 deg. minimum this morning followed a maximum temperature of 71 deg. recorded yesterday, a 48 deg. drop!!! Currently across the peninsula we once again have similar conditions as yesterday, with temperatures in the low 70's (a 30+ deg. rise from this morning), relative humidity levels in the mid teens % and dewpoints in the 20's.

With another night of perfect radiational cooling, expect subfreezing temperatures once again in some inland rural areas of the central peninsula.
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Published 02/06/01 10:00 AM As forecasted subfreezing temperatures visited portions of the central peninsula early this morning. Due to perfect radiational cooling conditions temperatures tumbled 30-40 deg. The tentative cold spot in the state was 26 deg. at Crestview. Other notable minimum temperatures include 28 at Alachua in the north, 29 deg. at Brooksville in north central, 28 deg. at Ona, 32 deg. at Plant City and Punta Gorda in south central.

On Wednesday 02/07/01 We begin a big warmup with temperatures running as much as 10 deg. above normal through Monday 02/12/01. The next rain chance arrives for the weekend but only at 30-40%. Global telleconnections point to a strong ridge building just off the west coast of the U.S. and Canada, a strong and sharp trough at around 90 deg. west latitude and a ridge east of Florida between 8th and 18th, with the trough eventually moving east.

Early on California's agricultural areas will face a freeze threat, followed by deep south Texas, as a series of bitter cold Siberian arctic high pressure systems race southward out of Canada. Tentatively, Florida's agriculture industry looks safe from crop threatening cold through the 18th but the period will not be warm. During the week of the 19th, all bets are off as Siberian arctic air may come screaming into the state with 70 deg. temperature drops, after finally beating down our protective ridge east of the state.
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Published 02/05/01 7:00 PM NWS Tampa Bay and Melbourne were on the right track earlier today, concerning overnight minimum temperatures but as usual choked and went with model guidance, which is usually to warm.

We have classic radiational cooling conditions setting up overnight, with clear skies, a calm wind and low dewpoints AND temperatures will plunge early on. Expect a light freeze into some areas of the rural inland central peninsula and near freezing into rural inland south central.

We have one more cool to mild day for Tuesday/Wednesday 02/06-07/01, then it's a warm up through Saturday 02/10/01. The next cold front and rain chance looks to arrive for the weekend, with periods of colder weather for the week of the 12th but nothing crop threatening. The week of the 19th looks to be a different story. By the way, California's agriculture industry may have to deal sub freezing temperatures during the week of the 12th.
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Published 02/05/01 1:00 PM As first forecasted back on Saturday 02/03/01. It looks like a light freeze to near freezing over portions of the inland rural central peninsula for early Tuesday morning 02/06/01. As of 12:00 PM strong DAA (dry air advection) has kicked in on a 20 mph north wind, with dewpoints already falling into the 20's.
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Published 02/05/01 11:00 AM The statewide cold spot early this morning was 26 deg. at Crestview in the panhandle. Light to moderate rainshowers occurred across the central peninsula yesterday afternoon and during the overnight but totals amounted to less then 0.10". However substantial rainfall totals were measured across the SE gold coast in thunderstorms during the late afternoon yesterday. Some notable totals include 2.07" at Pembroke Pines, 1.17" at Opa Locka, 0.97" at Ft. Lauderdale and 0.62" at Pompano Beach. During the past six days, substantial rainfall fell everywhere across the state, expect the inland desert of the south central peninsula.

It looks like a chilly 48 hour period for the state, then we begin a warming trend, with the next rain chance on Friday 02/09/01. Though global telleconnections continue to point to a return to a MUCH colder weather pattern for the eastern 2/3's of the country by Friday 02/09/01, most models indicate no crop threatening cold weather into Florida through the week of the 12th.
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Published 02/04/01 6:00 PM As forecasted, the surface low formed today and is now headed up the eastern U.S. to play havoc dumping snow, NE areas of the state saw wrap around rains, SE areas of the state in the warm sector, are seeing the heavy thunderstorms break out and light to moderate rains have broken out over portions of the central peninsula but with all this weather activity, not a drop of rain between SR 60 and SR 70 over the inland desert of the south central peninsula.
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Published 02/04/01 1:00 PM The statewide cold spot early this morning was 31 deg. at Crestview in the panhandle. Much needed rains fell across a narrow portion of the central peninsula on Saturday 02/03/01 but unfortunately many other areas in desperate need of surface moisture came up empty again. Some notable rainfall totals include Plant City at 0.89", Dover 0.84", Plant City #2 0.72", Lakeland #1 0.72", #2 0.71", #3 0.51", Winter Haven 0.64", Thonotosassa 0.56", Tampa and St. Petersburg 0.47".

Some topsy turvy temperature antics are occurring again today across the state at 11:00 am with Tampa at 54 deg. and Ft. Myers at 76 deg. on the west coast, Titusville at 55 deg. and Vero Beach 75 deg. on the east coast.

As forecasted a surface low did form off the SE gold coast of the state early this morning and has since moved NE of Jacksonville. The strong 500 mb shortwave trough over SE Texas yesterday has moved to SE Georgia today, with a trailing lobe through the NE Gulf Of Mexico. Unfortunately though our complex pattern did not phase as expected and therefore precipitation prospects are not as high for today as first thought. Some wrap around light wrap light to moderate rains are expected over NE areas of the state, with some scattered over running showers across the central peninsula and some warm sector showers and a possible thunderstorm over the southern peninsula. As I've said before it's hard to get it to rain during a drought.

Temperatures will stay below normal through Tuesday 02/06/01, with a warmup to at or above normal through Monday 02/12/01.
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Published 02/03/01 12:00 PM No subfreezing minimum temperatures have been observed in the state during the past 24 hours. In keeping with our theme of a wetter February, yep it's raining again for the fourth day in a row. At local noontime with temperatures holding in the mid 40's to around 50, we have a large shield of light to moderate rain from a Plant City, Winter Haven, Palm Bay line northward. This precipitation is in association with a weak vorticity maximum moving across the central peninsula, in conjunction with multiple layer over running north of the cold frontal boundry, now over south Florida.

Rain probabilities will increase for Sunday/Monday 02/04-05/01, as we will have another 500 mb shortwave trough moving across the peninsula, in conjunction with surface low development off of the south Florida coast, and moist over running at multiple levels. Area's of the south central and southern peninsula should also see increased rain chances, with a chance of severe weather along the SE gold coast of the state.

At the moment we have tremendous disparities in surface moisture levels across the central peninsula, with saturated ground in some areas and desert level moisture deficits, all within short distances of each.

By the way, record breaking arctic cold continues to grip a large portion of Siberian Russia, with official reading as cold as -72 deg. f and unofficial readings from ham radio operators of -85 deg. f. The potential still exists for this airmass to be tapped on cross polar flow and introduce the coldest air in North America in 100+ years during the next 2-3 week period.

It looks like a near to light freeze into portions of the inland rural north central peninsula for Tuesday early morning 02/06/01.

02/03/01 Run Of ECMWF Model For 850 MB Temperature For Friday 02/09/01. You can see the pooled arctic airmass with temps. of -40 deg. f beginnning it's southward momement and a surface cold front draped across the lower Mississippi Valley
02/03/01 Run Of ECMWF Model For 500 MB Height For Friday 02/09/01. You can see the sharp 500 mb longwave trough across the central U.S., which will eventually move into the eastern U.S.
02/03/01 Run Of CMC Ensemble 500 mb Spaghetti For Tuesday 02/13/01. You can see the 500 mb longwave trough across the central U.S., has moved into the eastern U.S.
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Published 02/02/01 3:00 PM At 2 pm the temperature was 55 deg. in Brooksville, 59 deg. in Titusville, 80 deg. at Ft. Myers and 82 deg. at Vero Beach, now that's a frontal boundry! As forecasted the stationary front across the peninsula has drifted further south, allowing for overunning light rain and temperature drops of up to 20 deg. to penetrate further down the central peninsula.

Latest studies of global telleconnection patterns and long range models are painting a grim cold weather pattern for Florida between Monday 2/12/01 and Friday 2/23/01. We have been warning of this pattern change back to prolonged arctic cold, on a near daily basis for at least three weeks (01/18/01), similar to the three week lead time (12/17/00) warning for the the freeze events during the first week of January 2001.

Unfortunately to many of the meteorological types at the NOAA/NWS/CPC still have the the "deer in headlights look" on their faces, due to stubborn over reliance of the career ruining MRF model. They have issued a series of long range weather outlook duds going back for a year.
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Published 02/02/01 10:00 AM No subfreezing minimum temperatures have been observed in the state during the past 48 hours. The cold spot this morning was 35 deg. at Pensacola. We had some Jekll and Hyde temperature antics yesterday with the stationary front across central Florida with max/min temperatures at Pensacola in the north at 47/35, Gainesville just north of the front at 62/53, Orlando just south of the front at 73/60 and well down south at Pembroke Pines 83/70.

It appears that the stationary front will drift further south today, possibly allowing the three day over running precipitation event across north central to move into central areas. However it's always tough to forecast something that's not moving at the moment.

It looks like another moderate chance of precipitation on Sunday 02/04/01 and Friday 02/09/01, with temperatures returning to at or above normal by Wednesday 02/07/01. Our chances for precipitation stay small to medium, as we have a 591 dcm high pressure ridge due south of the state. If we could get it to slide a little further east it would allow some moisture into the southern peninsula.

Cross polar flow has ushered in -20 deg. f temperatures to northern great plains and Mississippi valley in the past 24 hours. This is the beginning of a pattern change across the country. We will see the transition begin here in Florida by Friday 02/09/01 but crop damaging arctic air will not enter the peninsula until sometime during the week of the 12th.
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Published 02/01/01 6:00 PM It looks like another decent chance of rain on Friday 02/02/01 and Monday 02/05/01, as a series of 500 mb shortwaves and weak surface lows move up the stationary frontal boundry across the central peninsula.
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Published 02/01/01 10:00 AM A large area of the central peninsula received heavy to excessive rainfall amounts, with 1-3" common and one total anomaly of 5.35" at Brooksville, due to many hours of precipitation entrainment. Other notable totals are 2.09" at Brooksville and 1.21" at Inverness. This particular region had had the largest surface moisture deficits, with some areas having approached desert levels.

Unfortunately precipitation coverage south and east of the I-4 corridor was more spotty, with most areas seeing only 0.01-0.30. However isolated heavy showers did drop 1.75" at Bartow and 1.01" at Lakeland and Plant City.

The new area of heightened drought concern is over south central areas of the peninsula, where at Balm in southern Hillsborough County, virtually no measureable precipitation has fallen since September 2000. Ironically, through luck of the draw my location here in rural west Plant City has received enough precipitation since September 2000 (6.31")to keep things moist enough to make you think there is no ongoing drought.

More precipitation is expected today, followed by cooler weather. By the way January 2000 averaged out 7.9 deg. below normal at my location, definately in the top five coldest January's going back to 1931.
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Published 01/31/01 9:00 PM Portions of the central peninsula received much needed heavy rainfall today. Some notable totals include 3.02" at Brooksville, 1.75" at Bartow and 1.01" at Lakeland.
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Published 01/31/01 3:00 PM

January 2001 Plant City-
Mean Max 67.2 -6.0 Deg
Mean Min 38.3 -10.0 Deg
Mean Mo. 52.8 -7.9 Deg
Precip. 2.06" -0.41"

December 2000 Plant City-
Mean Max 69.7 -5.2 Deg
Mean Min 47.8 -2.5 Deg
Mean Mo. 58.8 -3.8 Deg
Precip. 2.73" +0.40"

November 2000 Plant City-
Mean Max 76.0 -3.8 Deg
Mean Min 52.4 -3.4 Deg
Mean Mo. 64.2 -3.6 Deg
Precip. 1.46" -0.64"

October 2000 Plant City-
Mean Max 82.9 -3.1 Deg
Mean Min 61.7 -1.7 Deg
Mean Mo. 72.3 -2.4 Deg
Precip. .06" -2.25"
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Published 01/31/01 11:00 AM No subfreezing minimum temperatures have been observed in the state during the last 48 hours. With mostly cloudy skies, high humidity and a strong S-SW flow, mean daily temperature has actually been running 5-15 deg. above normal.

As we surmised in previous days, a cold front became stationary across the central peninsula during the past 24 hours and now has begun to move back northward as a warm front. Along this low level convergence boundry, substantial rains have fallen over many drought stricken areas of the north central peninsula in the past 12 hours, with some spots exceeding 1.50", due to entraining of thunderstorms. Some notable rainfall totals include 0.51" at Orlando and 1.18" at Brooksville.

Unfortunately this band of heavy rain stayed just north of Tampa Bay and is now retreating northward with the warm front. As the next 500 mb shortwave trough moves across the state during the next 24 hours, rain chances improve over central and south central areas, however it appears that many drought stricken areas will miss out on this particular event.

A positive note though is the very existence of this rainfall event, which is a good signal in favor of our forecast that February will be a wetter month across the state. Colder weather does make a return across the state on Friday 02/02/01 and will persist through at least Wednesday 02/07/01. Cross polar arctic air will begin re-entering the northern plains of the U.S. on Friday 02/02/01, however it will be at least a week before crop threatening cold weather once again arrives in the state.
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Published 01/29/01 12:00 PM No subfreezing temperatures were observed in the state this early morning. The cold spot was 40 deg. at Alachua and Jacksonville in the nonpanhandle north. Other notable minimum temperatures were 43 deg. at Brooksville, 45 deg. at Fort Pierce and 47 deg. at Plant City.

Maximum temperatures exceeded 70 deg. statewide yesterday, expect for a few coastal stations. A weak cold front stalled across the central peninsula overnight in 500 mb zonal flow and is now moving back northward as a warm front. With southerly surface flow now in place temperatures will be running 5-15 degrees above normal through Monday 02/05/01. A cold front now across the western Gulf Of Mexico, will become stationary across the central peninsula on Tuesday 01/20/01, due to a a strong 588 dcm subtropical ridge located east of the state. This stationary front and future warm front will be the focus for a 40-60% chance of precipitation over central and northern zones through Thursday 02/01/01 and with a new cold front on Friday 02/02/01.

Global telleconnection patterns continue to allow for a high confidence in a return to persistent western U.S./Canada 500 mb ridging and eastern U.S. troughing across the eastern third of the U.S. (PNA pattern) and cross polar flow of arctic air into Florida from Siberian Russia in February.
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Published 01/28/01 12:00 PM Nobleton in rural NE Hernando County/western Sumter County saw a subfreezing minimum temperature for the eigth morning in a row at 31 deg. (#41 for the season) and was the statewide cold spot. No other subfreezing temperatures were found but it was 36 deg. at Brooksville, 37 deg. at Plant City and 38 deg. at Ona, with patchy frost.

Maximum temperatures today should exceed 70 deg. in most area of the state for the first time in eight days, as we begin that week long warming trend.
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Published 01/27/01 7:00 PM We are now firmly entrenched in a progressive zonal flow, with a strong jetmax just north of the state, contributing to the high cloudiness. With another cold front expected through the state tomorrow, cool weather will continue for another 48 hours. Spotty subfreezing temperatures may occur across the north and north central peninsula for early Sunday morning 01/28/01 but the coldest weather is now past us for a while.

We will have a 30-40% rain chance on Tuesday 3/30/01 and probably higher on Friday 02/02/01, as disturbances move rapidly east in the progressive subtropical jetstream flow. The cross polar arctic air pattern begins to take hold in the eastern third of the U.S. again by Saturday 02/03/01. We haven't nailed down the exact timing yet but we expect possibly the coldest arctic air of this winter season to come screaming into Florida sometime during the first full week of February, with more 60-70 degree temperature drops. Also as mentioned recently, February should be a wetter month for the state, compared to the previous months October 2000-January 2001. I see signs that the 2001 spring period in the state will be wetter then normal, stopping the worst of the fire season from occurring. What's left of the La Nina pattern continues to die out and this will allow the subtropical jet to possess more energy and tap more moisture, then earlier this winter and also the 1999-2000 winter period. Many media outlets and inept government meteorologists are playing up the coming springtime firestorm but once again I feel it will not be that bad.

We also see signs that the summer 2001 monsoon rainy season from mid May to mid October will be wetter then normal. We will delve into that deeper as we move into Spring.
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Published 01/27/01 11:00 AM As amazing as it may seem, portions of the peninsula once again saw subfreezing minimum temperatures for the seventh morning in a row, though with more spotty coverage due to high overcast. The tentative statewide minimum temperature was 28 deg. at Nobelton (#40 for the season) in north central. Other notable minimum temperatures include 29 deg. at Alachua, 30 deg. at Brooksville, 31 deg. at Kissimmee and Lisbon and 32 deg. at Plant City (#25 for the season)and Scottsmoor. Through the past 27 days of the month, the average minimum temperature at my station in rural west Plant City is 36.2 deg, 12.1 deg. below normal.

Another cold front arrives for Sunday 01/28/01, however the balance of the month should return to near or even above normal temperature wise. February promises to be another cold month in the state but with more precipitation, in what's turning out to be an incredibly cold winter.
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Published 01/26/01 12:00 PM Subfreezing temperatures visited portions of the peninsula for the sixth morning in a row. The tentative statewide minimum temperature was 19 deg. at Crestview in the panhandle north, with the subfreezing line extending south into the northern Everglades. Other notable minimum temperatures include Tallahassee at 20 deg. in the panhandle north, Alachua at 20 deg. in the non panhandle north, 22 deg. at Brooksville and Nobelton (#39 for the season)in north central, Plant City at 28 deg.(#24 for the season), Ruskin NWS Tampa Bay and Scottsmoor at 30 deg in central, Archbold at 28 deg., Ona and Punta Gorda at 29 deg. in south central, Immokalee at 32 deg in northern Everglades and West Kendall and Homestead at 39 deg. in southern Everglades.

As occurs sometimes due to cold air advection trajectory and other heterogeneous factors, the central ridge and east coast areas were much warmer, ie, Apopka and Orlando at 35 deg., Avalon and Lake Alfred at 36 deg., Ft. Pierce at 37 deg. and Tavares at 41 deg.

By the way, we have a large wildfire in central Florida, (5000 acres I think) in Lake and Polk Counties. With a NE wind, my location some 40 miles SW is smoked out with milky white skies, 1 mile visibility and of course the smell of something burning.

Portions of the peninsula will see day 7 in a row with subfreezing minimum temperatures for Saturday early morning 01/27/01, then we begin a week long warming trend!
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Published 01/25/01 12:00 PM Subfreezing temperatures visited portions of the central peninsula for the fifth morning in a row. The tentative statewide minimum temperature was 27 deg. at Brooksville and Nobelton (#38)in north central, Plant City at 32 deg. (#23) in central, Archbold at 29 deg. and Ona at 32 deg. in south central, Belle Glade and Immokalee at 35 in northern Everglades and West Kendall and Homestead at 39 deg. in southern Everglades.

It appears that many areas will see days 6 and 7 in a row with subfreezing minimum temperatures. For early Friday morning 01/26/01 it appears we will see an advective hard freeze across portions of rural inland north central, a moderate freeze inland rural central and light freeze inland rural south central/northern Everglades. Portions of the peninsula should see a freeze for early Saturday morning 01/27/01.

A week long warming trend begins on Sunday 01/28/01 and should continue through at least Friday 02/02/01, as we come under the influence of a zonal subtropical jetstream. We will however see minor disturbances with small precipitations chances and +/- temperature swings from normal.

Confidence continues high for a return to prolonged cross polar flow and repeated arctic air intrusions in early February, as winter 2000-2001 continues to rival and possibly surpass 1980-81 and 1976-77.
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Published 01/24/01 11:00 PM Though maximum temperatures inched up into the low and mid 60's across portions of the peninsula this afternoon, DAA continued. Under clear skies, with calm winds and low dewpoints, temperatures have already plummeted to the low and mid 30's across portions of the inland rural central peninsula this evening.

Another cold front is expected through the state overnight and one would expect increasing onshore NW flow to stop the overnight temperature drop. However, the northerly drainage wind is already well established and temperatures may continue to fall, in some areas to critical levels.

At the moment another frost/freeze event looks likely for portions of the central peninsula for Friday/Saturday 1/26-27/01, geez what a winter so far!
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Published 01/24/01 11:00 AM Subfreezing temperatures visited portions of the central peninsula for the fourth morning in a row. The tentative statewide minimum temperature was at Crestview in the panhandle north with 25 deg. and Starke in the non panhandle north, Alachua in the non panhandle north had 28 deg. along with Brooksville in north central, Plant City had 31 deg. in central, Archbold has 26 deg. and Ona 32 deg. in south central, Immokalee had 35 in northern Everglades and West Kendall 40 deg. in southern Everglades.

A couple of 500 mb shortwave troughs located over Texas and Minnesota will carve out another deep east coast trough on Thursday 1/25/01, setting the stage for another frost/freeze event into portions of the central peninsula for Friday/Saturday 1/26-27/01. After eight consecutive days of colder then normal temperatures, a warming trend begins on Sunday 01/28/01 through Friday 01/31/01, with temperatures +/- of normal through the period.

By the way, my location here in rural west Plant City has now seen 22 days with subfreezing minimum temperatures this winter season, lowest reading 22 deg. My electronic weather station located in rural Sumter County in north central, has seen 37 days with subfreezing minimum temperatures, lowest 15 deg. The peninsula wide lowest minimum temperature so far this season is 13 deg. at Archbold in south central.

Confidence is high for a return to prolonged cross polar flow and repeated arctic air intrusions in early February. One difference though will be a more active subtropical jetsream that will bring much needed precipitation to the state during the same period, hhhhmmmm!
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Published 01/24/01 At 12:00 AM Temperatures are already approaching the freezing mark in many inland rural areas of the north and central peninsula. However some high cloudiness will be moving across the state overnight and will prevent temperatures from falling to critical levels. A light to moderate freeze is expected in some areas of the inland rural central peninsula overnight.
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Published 01/23/01 At 8:00 AM on my 44th Birthday. This early morning, for the third morning in a row, sub freezing minimum temperatures visited portions of the central peninsula. The cold spot in the state was 24 deg. at Monticello in the non peninsula north. The cold spot on the peninsula was right here in Plant City with 32 deg.

A strong 500 mb shortwave trough embedded in the subtropical jetstream, moved across the state on Monday 01/22/01. It spawned a weak surface low east of Miami that began heading NE. In it's warm sector out over the Gulfstream many heavy thunderstorms occurred, while onshore in the cold sector, a cold rain with midday temperatures in the 40's occurred from Miami to Melbourne. The Tampa Bay area was in the dry slot, with partly cloudy skies, windy conditions, with temperatures in the low 60's.

As the low continues NE and probably bombs out, cold air advection will once again begin in earnest later today, with an eventual NNW-N very dry flow down the spine of the state, setting the stage for, guess what? yep another freeze. At the moment it looks like another light freeze into the inland rural area's of south central/northern Everglades for early Wednesday morning 01/24/01.

A reinforcing cold shot arrives for Thursday 01/25/01, with another light freeze threat into inland rural area's of south central/northern Everglades for Friday early morning 01/26/01 and possibly Saturday early morning 02/27/01. By Monday 01/29/01 we may get closer to normal temperature wise for a brief while.

The initial seemingly inoccuous surface low now NE of Florida, will probably undergo bombogenisis within 24 hours and eventually beat the 590 dcm subtropical blocking ridge east of Florida to pieces. Guess what that means? yep, it will begin a flip of the NAO back to negative from positive and begin the long sequence (within 7-10 days) of renewed persistent strong long wave ridging out in the western U.S. and Canada and persistent longwave troughing east of the Mississippi River valley. This will allow cross polar flow to tap some of the record breaking Siberian Russia arctic air, I mentioned back a couple of weeks ago.
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PUBLISHED 01/23/01 AT 12:00 AM THE FLORIDA WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSION WILL CONTINUE SHORTLY, UNDER A NON PROFIT EDUCATIONAL WEATHER ORGANIZATION, FLORIDA METEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATIC INSTITUTE.
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Issued 01/21/01 5:00 PM LAST POST As forecasted, high level cirrus clouds are streaming across the state this afternoon, ahead of the next weather system. With cold air advection continuing out of the north and dewpoints in the upper 10's and low 20's, temperatures struggled to get out of the 40's most areas. Tonight looks like another cold but tricky forecast. Temperatures should fall rapidly after sunset, due to light wind and low dewpoints but not as fast as it would, due to the high cloudiness. Later tonight most of the high cloudiness may clear out for a while, allowing a freeze to occur over portions of the central peninsula.

Monday 01/22/01 looks to be mostly cloudy, breezy and chilly with a small chance of rain, especially along the east coast and NE peninsula. Most areas should be spared a widespread freeze on early Tuesday morning 02/23/01 but Wednesday early morning 01/24/01 may be a different story.

Temperatures will run below normal all week, with a warming trend beginning on Saturday 01/28/01. As for the month of February, buy lot's of crop insurance. Adios.
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Issued 01/21/01 11:00 AM As forecasted, 36 hour temperature falls of 55-59 deg. occurred across the peninsula. Barometric pressure rose from 29.91" to 30.40" during the same period. As strongest cold air advection occurred west of the inland ridge yesterday, early this morning the subfreezing line extended from Punta Gorda on the west coast to Ona in inland south central, NE through Polk County at Winter Haven to Orange County. This was an advection freeze event with a 5-15 mph north wind. The tentative cold spot in the state this morning was 23 deg. at Crestview in panhandle north and Alachua in the non panhandle north. Brooksville had 26 deg. on the central peninsula. Other notable minimum temperatures include: Tallahassee and Gainesville at 24, Ocklawaha 27, Plant City 28, Dover and Ona 31, Punta Gorda and Winter Haven 32, Orlando and Tampa 34, Ft. Pierce and Immokalee 36. By the way the 850 mb temperature at 1200 UTC this morning was +8 deg. at Tampa and +3 deg. at Tallahassee, once again another example of the danger of using model progged 850 mb temperatures for forecasting minimum temperature in Florida.

01/21/01 GOES 8 Water Vapor Image Of Approaching 500 MB Shortwave Trough

As mentioned previously we are in a progressive flow with fast moving weather systems. Upstream over NE Texas is a strong 500 mb shortwave, which will swing through the state tomorrow with clouds, wind and a small chance for rain. This approaching system will interfere with radiational cooling conditions and will probably prevent a widespread freeze event tonight. Cold air advection will be renewed tomorrow but at this moment it is unclear as to coverage of subfreezing minimum temperatures for Early Tuesday and Wednesday mornings 01/23-24/01.
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Issued 01/20/01 11:00 PM Temperatures have dropped into the mid and upper 30's in inland rural areas of the central peninsula on a 10 mph NNW wind, even with 850 mb temperatures of 6-10 deg. celsius at 0000 UTC. Minimum temperatures are on track for a light advection freeze into portions of the inland rural central peninsula. As forecasted, strong cold air advection occurred across the state today. Example: Plant City, Friday 01/19 3:00 pm 84 deg; Saturday 01/20 3:00 pm 49 deg., 11:00 pm 38 deg. During the past 18 hours the barometric pressure has risen from 29.91" to 30.27".

Some rainfall totals across the central peninsula earlier today: 0.14" at Plant City and Tampa, 0.26" at Orlando, 0.35" at Arcadia, 0.41" at Inverness, 0.42" at Winter Haven, 0.54" at Cross City, 0.56" at Ft. Meade and 1.00" at Ft. Pierce.

One last note on our continued drought situation. The culprit of our current two year long dry spell, the La Nina cold ocean water anomaly pattern, continues to hang on in the eastern Pacific Ocean, albiet in a weak fashion. I can't say it's unheard of but I personally do not remember it ever taking this long to completely fade. One good note however, if it were completely gone, our present colder then normal winter of 2000-2001 would be even colder.
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Issued 01/20/01 10:00 AM NWS NEXRAD radar at Tampa Bay Ruskin shows an approximate 90% coverage of precipitation across the central peninsula overnight. Unfortunately 80% of the same area only received between .10" and .25" of rainfall. Though the PWAT (precipitable water) reached 1.00" at 0000 UTC and 1.51" at 1200 UTC, the swift movement and timing of passage of the prefrontal squall prevented substantive precipitation. There's an old saying, "sure is hard to get it to rain during a drought".

Many area's experienced their maximum temperatures for today at around local midnight, in low to mid 70's. During the day today strong low level CAA will begin, with temperatures falling into the 40's and 50's across the north and central peninsula and NW winds gusting to 30 mph, will make for a cold afternoon. Tomorrow afternoon's maximum temperatures should be similar.

Low level CAA will be very strong and allow for subfreezing temps., not normally allowed by model progged 850 mb temperatures of 0 deg. celsius north central and +2 deg. central and thicknesses of around 547. At the same time, with no blacking pattern in the polar jetstream, we are in a progressive flow where 500 mb longwave troughs quickly dig southward and then kick out, not allowing for the short termstagnation needed for perfect radiational cooling and a more significant freeze event.

For Sunday early morning 01/21/01 look for a light freeze north central and near freezing central. For Monday early morning 01/22/01 look for slightly colder readings. A secondary shot of CAA (cold air advection) arrives for Monday, with a hard freeze setting up for north central, moderate freeze central and light freeze south central on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday mornings 01/23-24/01.
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Issued 01/20/01 12:00 AM Local temperature is still hovering at 70 deg. with a strong south wind. A broken line of rainshowers and thunderstorms has developed along west central Florida coastal areas, ahead of the main squall, with rain currently starting to fall here in Plant City. 0000 UTC TBW PWAT is 1.00", 1.61" at EYW.

The latest water vapor satellite image of the Gulf Of Mexico shows a sharp impressive 500 mb trough digging well south into old Mexico, and the 0000 UTC 850 mb analyisis showing the 0 deg. celsius line to near Tampico at 25 deg. N and the +2 deg line to near Veracruz! a harbinger of things to come in Florida. We should see an overall temperature drop between today's high temperature and Sunday mornings low temperature of around 60 deg.
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Issued 01/19/01 3:00 PM Incredibly, inland areas of the Florida peninsula are seeing temperatures as high as the mid 80's, with dewpoints in the 60's and 70's on south and southwest winds gusting to 30 and 40 mph. Of course this is occurring ahead of the squall line of severe thunderstorms and cold front accross the panhandle region of the state at this moment. Fortunately severe weather sould be limited across most of the peninsula due to timing factors.

Much of the state should see temperature falls of 30-40 deg. in the next 24-36 hours and with a reinforcing arctic cold front arriving On Sunday 01/21/01, minimum temperatures across portions of the inland rural central areas may reach hard freeze condition levels on Monday and Tuesday early mornings 01/23-24/01. Strawberry and tropical fish farmers need to remain vigilant.

As mentioned earlier the next 7 days period will be colder then normal, again, aaaahhhh!
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Issued 01/19/01 9:00 AM No subfreezing minimum temperatures occurred in the state this morning, BUT they are coming back. As forecasted (no brainer) very warm temperatures enveloped most of the state on Thursday 01/18/01 and will again today. Maximum temperatures ranged from the mid and upper 70's panhandle areas to upper 70's and low 80's across the peninsula. As forecasted (another no brainer) severe weather is already moving across the panhandle this morning, however the severe weather threat for the peninsula will be minimal, due to timing factors (darkness) but plenty of thunder will be heard with appreciable rains in many but not all areas.

The latest run of ALL models say no freeze for peninsular Florida but the models are wrong. The coldest is the MRF with an 850 mb temp. of +2 deg. celsius across north central areas BUT sub zero temps. celsius are not necessary for a freeze in Florida (a tough lesson to teach). Low level CAA (cold air advection) will be screaming down the state Saturday and Sunday and I expect a light freeze north central on Sunday morning and a hard freeze north central, moderate freeze central and light freeze south central citrus growing areas on Monday morning. As previously mentioned this will not be a big freeze event for southern areas already hit hard earlier in the month but winter is here and our one week of mild to warm weather is over and being replaced by one week of cold to cool weather and February still looms over us like a beast.

Back to the models for a minute, most do show a significantly sharp 500 mb trough and sub zero celsius temperatures through deep south Texas and into northern Mexico.
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Issued 01/18/01 10:00 AM With minimum temperatures in the upper 40's to low 50's north, upper 50's to mid 60's central and low 60's to low 70's south. With increasing southerly and then sw'erly surface winds today and tomorrow, many areas of the peninsula will exceed 80 deg. and hover near 70 deg. overnight.

The southern jetstream shortwave trough aids in development of a northern Gulf Of Mexico surface low, which will swing through the state on Saturday 01/20/01, with a line of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall, some will approach severe levels across the north. Precipitation probabilities look to be 80% north, 70% central, 60% south. SHOCKINGLY COLDER temperatures arrive behind the front with temperature falls of up to 30 deg. and subfreezing temperatures into portions of the inland rural areas of the central peninsula for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday mornings 01/22-23/01. This will not however be a big freeze event.

The balance of next week will feature below normal temperature, with a creep back to near normal +/- for the remainder of the month. As no major blocking features will exist in the northern jetstream, in conjunction with a neutral or slightly positive NAO, no prolonged crop threatening cold weather pattern will be able to lock itself in to the state until February.

Many laymen have commented to me that winter is over in Florida, with many thinking about the winter of 1989-90. However, historically Florida has always received a one two knock out punch in cold winters, much like 1995-96 and many others. Back on 10/01/00 we forecasted February to be a cold month in the state and we stand by that prediction. Longer range global telleconnection patterns still point to a return of very cold weather for the eastern 1/3 of the U.S. for February, with 100+ years record cold still lurking across the north pole in Siberian Russia.

Incidentally, though we have successfully forecasted every cold wave, including actual minimum temperature correctly, with forecast lead times of up to 21 days, that have occurred in the state this winter season, we have had to push our original forecast of a prolonged return pattern of cold weather to the state, from 01/17/01 to the end of the month. So basically we blew that medium range aspect of the forecast timing wise this time. However we are confident that the ultimate return of a crop threatening, utility bill busting prolonged cold spell, will verify in the state in February. When you consider that the average NWS 5 day forecast has an accuracy rate of less then 50% on the third day, we are proud of our short, medium and longe range forecasting accuracy record.
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Issued 01/17/01 7:00 PM No subfreezing minimum temperatures have occurred in the state during the past 24 hours, with above normal maximum temperatures in the mid 70's to around 80 and minimum temperatures in the low 50's to around 60, the length of the peninsula. A weak stationary frontal boundry lies across the central peninsula today, with slightly cooler weather prevailing across the north. It looks like a substantial rain event for most of the state on Saturday 01/20/01, with severe weather possible across the north. Subreezing temperatures return into the inland rural areas of the central peninsula for Monday and Tuesday 01/22-23/01, with near normal +/- temperature prevailing through the balance of the month, as we will continue with a slightly positive to neutral NAO. Longer range global telleconnection patterns still point to a return to prolonged arctic cold for the beginning of February.
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Issued 01/15/01 3:00 PM No subfreezing minimum temperatures have occurred in the state during the past 48 hours. On Sunday 01/14/01 across the north, temperatures were in the 60's/30's range, 70's/40's central, near 80/60 south. Today is featuring similar weather conditions, though in some areas north the temperature is approaching 70 deg., with mid to upper 70's central and low 80's south. Today would have to be called the first really above normal temperature regime in approx. 45 days. With building subtropical high pressure ridging well east of the state and a NE-E onshore flow, this warm pattern should continue through Friday 01/19/01. The cold front first progged to race across the peninsula on Tuesday 01/16/01 in progressive zonal flow, is being slowed by the subtropical ridge and will have minimum weather impact. Precipitation chances increase for Friday and Saturday 01/19-20/01, with a colder weather returning Sunday 01/21/01. In previous days we felt that it would take up to 5 days thereafter, for crop threatening cold weather to return and we stand by that prediction. The ECMWF model still indicates this pattern change but the MRF model is now off on it's own tangent. We do not soley rely on models for for our forecasts and outlooks, however we have moved back into a +NAO pattern for now, which brings warmer then normal weather to the SE U.S.
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Issued 01/13/01 12:00 PM For the first time in 30+ days no subfreezing minimum temperatures were observed in the state on Friday morning 01/12/01. Temperatures climbed into the low 70's across the central peninsula yesterday ahead of a Pacific cold front. However some strong CAA set up overnight on 10-20 mph north winds. The statewide minimum temperature this Saturday morning 01/13/01 was 31 deg. at Inverness in north central. Here in west Plant City I observed 38 deg. Here at local noontime I have cloudy skies and 53 deg., quite a 24 hour temperature change.

Our general outlook for this week calls for the system out to our west to miss us to our north, with weak shortwave ridging across the state during the weekend. Through the week we will see a progressive zonal flow return with near normal +/- temperature. It looks like another minor cold frontal passage with a small rain chance on Tuesday 01/16/01 and another much more significant cold front and much better rain event for Friday 01/19/01, the 24th anniversary of the big snow event, all the way down to Miami and the northern Bahama's. The Friday frontal event will trend us back to a colder weather pattern but as mentioned previously, it will take up to 5 more days for crop damaging cold to once again "threaten" the state. We still feel confident that a screamingly cold arctic air weather pattern will haunt the eastern third of the U.S. during the latter part of January into early February. In this instance we would take great pleasure in being wrong about this prognosis, as the Florida agriculture industry, from citrus, to vegetable crops, strawberries and tropical fish farms really got hammered repeatedly during the recent 26 day +/- cold spell.
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Issued 01/12/01 2:00 PM Another mild day across the peninsula with 70 deg. currently in Plant City. Our 20-40% rain chance produced 0.18" at Brooksville, 0.11" at Orlando, 0.09" at Plant City and 0.08" at Tampa.

The next two links project the upcoming weather pattern change back to much colder weather. The 850 mb temp. prog. shows -30 deg. c arctic air just north of the Great Lakes and New England and poised to head south. The 500 mb height prog. shows a strong and sharp ridge over the western U.S. and Canada and a broad and deep neutral tilt trough over the central U.S., poised to move east.

01/11/01 Run Of ECMWF Model For 850 MB Temperature For Thursday 1/18/01
01/11/01 Run Of ECMWF Model For 500 MB Height For Thursday 1/18/01
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Issued 01/11/01 8:00 PM Aaahhh 71 deg. for a max temp. today in Plant City, the first 70+ day in a month but alas it's already dipped to 47 deg. this evening. Latest 0000 UTC TBW skew-t says -14 deg. celsius at 500 mb with precipitable water at 0.72" and more moist upstream. We might here a rumble of thunder tonight, especially north central. Rain chance 40% north central, 30% central, 20% south central. Weak pacific cold front will give us slightly below normal temps. through the weekend.


Issued 01/11/01 11:00 AM The cold spot in the state this morning was 24 deg. at Crestview in the north. Brooksville had honors with 32 deg. on the central peninsula, with Plant City a distant second at a 36 frost deg.

Today begins day one of a trend to a more normal temperature pattern across the state, with a couple of minor cold fronts through Tuesday 01/16/01. A colder weather pattern once again develops on Wednesday 01/17/01 in the eastern U.S. with a renewal of the PNA patterrn (ridge west and trough east). It may take up to another 5 days thereafter, for a split jet/cross polar flow to develop and the arctic cold weather threat renew for Florida.

Here in Plant City, a location not noted as a cold spot on the peninsula, weathered 26 consecutive days with much below normal temperature and 17 days with subfreezing minimum temperatures. Locations such as Brooksville, Bushnell and Ocala sport even more impressive cold weather anamolies. The past 30 day period is the coldest since December 1989 and January 1981.

Alot is being said about our drought here in the state. Though it is bad, it's also a bit of an exaggerated media circus, much like global warming. Though many locations around the state showed yearly rainfall deficits, other areas averaged out normal or above. Here at my location in west Plant City for year 2000 we measured 49.93", 1.24" below normal, however my second rain guage location 5 miles east of here near downtown measured 60.01". Another nearby location receiving 14" less (Balm) and 20" more (Knights Station).

We are forecasting near normal precipitation through the balance of this winter and into spring, which should alleviate the worst of the upcoming and dreaded fire season. By the way I have no recollection of Florida having a dreaded annual fire season until recent years, hhhmmm. Though surface moisture levels are lacking, groundwater levels are not in that bad of shape. The main problem with water availability in Florida, which is the second wettest state, is storage and distribution, no storage resevoirs exist in any useful capacity. Denver, Co. and San Jose, Ca. with equally big populations and MUCH less yearly rainfall, get by just fine due to resevoirs.

We will be taking a small hiatus from the hectic pace of email and web postings of the past 30 days, during the next week, with just an occasional noteworthy post here at this website.
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Issued 01/10/01 11:00 PM After a quick temperature drop from 59 deg. to 41 deg. here in Plant City, the temperature has inched back up to 45 deg., due to thickening high clouds. Latest GOES 8 satellite imagery indicates clearing skies to return shortly and temperatures should resume a fall to around freezing in some inland rural areas of the central peninsula.
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Issued 01/10/01 5:00 PM Even with an onshore NE flow, temperatures still struggled into the 40's north, 50's central and 60's south, with dewpoints in the 10's and 20's, during the day today. Though a widespread significant freeze is not expected tonight, it appears that sub freezing temperatures with frost is probable tonight in inland rural area's of central, west of U.S. 27 and north of S.R. 60.
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Issued 01/10/01 1:00 PM As forecasted a hard freeze visited portions of the peninsula early this morning, with light freeze conditions across south central/northern Everglades. Clouds and wind aided in avoiding a hard freeze across the citrus belt, however this observation is based on missing data from a private automated weather observation network. The cold spot in the state was 15 deg. at Nobleton in north central, with the sub freezing line down to Immokalee in the northern Everglades. There may be some spotty subfreezing temperatures across the north central peninsula tomorrow morning but the freeze threat is now over, with near normal temperature expected through at least Tuesday 01/16/01. We still project the coldest weather in 100+ years to move into the eastern U.S., as we move towards the third week of this month onward. Some selected minimum temperatures this morning.

North- Alachua- 18
Tallahassee- 19
Bell- 19
Glen St. Mary- 19
Cross City- 20
Crestview- 21

North Central-
Nobleton- 15
Brooksville- 16 Below 32 9 Hours, Below 26 5 hours
Inverness- 24
Ocklawahaa- 24
Okahumpka- 24
Inverness- 24
Orlando- 32 (Urban)

Central-
Plant City- 25 Below 32 8 Hours, Below 26 4 hours
Dover- 29
Kissimmee- 30
Scottsmoor- 30
Ruskin NWS- 30
Tampa- 34 (Urban)

South Central/Northern Everglades-
Ona- 29 Below 32 4 Hours
Punta Gorda- 31
Moore Haven- 31
Avon Park- 32
Immokalee- 32


This is a summation of 6 foot level and 2 foot level subfreezing temperatures at my location so far this season.

11/21- 32/30
11/22- 28/26
11/23- 32/31
12/06- 32/30
12/18- 31/29
12/19- 32/31
12/20- 27/27
12/21- 25/21
12/23- 32/30
12/29- 32/30
12/30- 31/27
12/31- 26/24
01/01- 23/19
01/02- 32/32
01/03- 31/28
01/04- 25/20
01/05- 22/16
01/06- 31/28
01/07- 29/25
01/09- 32/30
01/10- 25/20
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01/09/01 3:15 PM I forgot to mention that the latest IR satellite image of the Gulf Of Mexico shows a large canopy of cirrus and cirrostratus over south Texas, in association with the next weather system set to move across the state on Friday 1/12/01. As the longwave trough gives way to a more zonal flow overnight tonight, some of this cloud deck may stream in and help to hold minimum temperatures up a little.
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01/09/01 3:00 PM Strong CAA continues over the peninsula. Midday temperatures are actually colder today, then on Thursday 01/04/01, preceeding the last hard freeze of the 5th. Other differences today, the wind direction is NW versus north on the 4th, holding dewpoints up in the upper 10's to low 20's north, low 20's central and mid 20's south. These dewpoint readings are 10-15 degrees warmer then on the 4th. With an advection freeze expected tonight on a north wind of 5-15 mph, a hard freeze should be limited to inland central areas west of U.S. 27 and north of S.R. 60, with a light to moderate freeze into south central/northern Everglades. If the wind backs to north and or diminishes to less then 5 mph and the departing shortwave subsidence intensifies, then our original hard freeze into south central/northern Everglades will verify.
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01/09/01 1:00 PM With a 25-35 mph NW wind temperatures are struggling out of the 30's north and 40's central, with wind chills in the 20's and 30's. Dewpoints continue to fall with 10's and 20's north and central and 20's and 30's south. The cold spot in the state this morning was 24 at Crestview in the panhandle north, 26 at Geneva in the non panhandle north. More rainfall total's from yesterday include Tampa Delany Creek with 1.10", Tampa MacDill 1.04", Brandon and Lakeland 0.96", Plant City 0.82", Wimauma 0.71" and Tampa progress 0.70". Portions of the peninsula will see a hard freeze overnight.
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Issued 01/09/01 11:00 AM With strong CAA occurring on a 20-30 mph NW wind, dewpoints have already fallen into the low 20's, with teens expected as the day progresses. The southward extent of the dewpoint gradient will determine just how severe the freeze will be in south central/northern Everglades tonight. As this will be an advective cooling event, the extreme low temperatures (13 deg. due to radiational cooling) as occurred on the 7th will not take place. Unfortunately advective means wind and wind defeats cold weather protection methods, except for south of lake exposures.

As the weather pattern is becoming more progressive (fast moving) with time, a significant freeze event is now unlikely for Thursday morning 01/11/01. Onshore flow from the Atlantic Ocean will break the low dewpoints and the wind will bust the radiational cooling effect.
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Issued 01/08/01 9:00 PM Some much needed and appreciable rains fell across portions of the peninsula today. Some notable rainfall totals include 1.71" at St. Pete/Clearwater, 0.79" at Tampa, 0.75" at Plant City, 0.53" at Winter Haven and 0.43" at Orlando.

From 01/17/01 onward a much colder weather pattern once again redevelops in the eastern third of the U.S., with persistent long wave troughing east of the Mississippi River and cross polar flow tapping all time record breaking frigid arctic air now residing over Siberian Russia. The exact timing of arrival of this colder pattern into Florida hasn't been nailed down yet but we may be seeing the coldest weather in 100 plus years headed for Florida in the latter part of January and into early February.

We still stick by our forecast of a hard freeze into the south central/northern Everglades citrus growing region for early Monday morning 01/10/01. During the period Friday 01/12/01 through Tuesday 01/16/01 temperature will be near normal with minor ridging and then weak impulses on a zonal flow jet stream pattern.
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Issued 01/08/01 11:00 AM Some moderate rainfall totals are adding up across the central peninsula at this hour. As we first began discussing back on Friday 01/05/01, it looks like an advective hard freeze into the south central/northern Everglades citrus growing areas on Wednesday early morning 01/10/01. A freeze is also probable for Thursday early morning 01/11/01. Winter 2000-2001 continues to look more and more like 1976-77 and 1980-81 in Florida for repeated freezes.

-67 in Barnaul, -71 in Oymyakon, Siberian Russia. I've heard unofficial reports from amateur radio operators of -80 to -90. Hmmm I wonder if any of this arctic air will arrive on cross polar flow in North America when blocking and PNA rears it's ugly head again after 01/16/01.
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01/07/01 Run Of ETA Model For 850 MB Temperature For Wednesday 1/10/01 (warning use this as a general guideline only. trying to forecast florida minimum temperature using the 850 mb temp. prog. only can be like using the MRF model on a regular basis, a reputation ruiner)

Issued 01/07/01 4:00 PM It looks like a pretty good shot at rain for Monday afternoon 01/08/01 into early Tuesday 01/09/01, then an advection hard freeze again for some portions of the peninsula on Wednesday 1/10/01 and radiative freeze for Thursday 01/11/01.
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Issued 01/07/01 10:00 AM As we first began discussing back on Friday 01/05/01, per our forecast subfreezing temperatures once again visited portions of the peninsula, with the sub freeze line down into the northern Everglades. This surprise freeze (only a surprise if you don't frequent this site) occurred with 850 mb temps. at 51 deg. F. In keeping with our 10 day outlook of more normal temperatures with periods of cold, it looks like a more significant freeze then that occurred this morning, for Wednesday morning 01/10/01.

Some significant minimum temperatures include Lake Wales 22, Brooksville 24, Alachua and Lake Placid 25, Okahumpka and Scottsmoor 26, Ona 28, Plant City 29 (10 straight mornings 32 deg. or lower), Ft. Pierce 30, Orlando, Vero Beach and Belle Glades 31, Punta Gorda 33.
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Issued 01/07/01 12:00 AM The temperature at my location in west Plant City is now 31 deg.

This is a summation of 6 foot level and 2 foot level subfreezing temperatures at my location so far this season.

11/21- 32/30
11/22- 28/26
11/23- 32/31
12/06- 32/30
12/18- 31/29
12/19- 32/31
12/20- 27/27
12/21- 25/21
12/23- 32/30
12/29- 32/30
12/30- 31/27
12/31- 26/24
01/01- 23/19
01/02- 32/32
01/03- 31/28
01/04- 25/20
01/05- 22/16
01/06- 31/28
01/07- 29/25
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Issued 01/06/01 9:00 PM Once again today dewpoints reached extremely low values after passage of another cold front and resultant DAA, with low teens common. Temperatures responded with a max. temp. at my station of 66 deg., the warmest in many days. Unfortunately though my current temp. is 35 deg. and it looks like another freeze for portions of the peninsula.

It turns out we were the only weather forecasting agency public or private that forecasted a hard freeze into the citrus growing areas of south central/northern Everglades. Preliminarily there is damage to strawberries in central areas, citrus in south central/northern Everglades and truck crops in the southern Everglades.

I've had many calls from customers biting on NWS CPC's ridiculous "winter's over till mid February" prediction. The CPC stinks, period.
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Issued 01/05/01 10:00 AM As we forecasted, some incredibly cold temperatures decended upon the state early this morning, with a hard freeze into south central/northern Everglades, in many cases equalling the infamous January 1985 freeze event. The definition of a hard freeze is 26 deg. or lower for 4 hours or more. Unusual but not unprecedented, the statewide minimum temperature was 13 deg. at Archbold in south central, the norhern limit of the citrus industry. Other notable temperatures were 16 deg. at Brooksville and 19 deg. in Inverness, in north central. The subfreezing line extended into the southern Everglades with 31 deg. at West Kendall and 33 deg. at Flamingo on the southern most tip of the peninsula. During the overnight hours we had a very heterogeneous temperature pattern, due to boundry layer winds between 1000-925 mb breaking through the very shallow inversion (100-200 feet) and disrupting radiational cooling in some areas.

It looks like another cold front for Saturday 1/6/01 and a light freeze for Sunday 1/7/01. A chance of rain comes in Monday 1/8/01, with another cold front for Tuesday 1/9/01 and a light freeze on Wednesday 1/10/01. Another chance of rain comes in on Thursday 1/11/01, with another cold front on Friday 1/12/01.

As follows is our minimum temperature forecast verification.

Valid For Friday Morning 1/5/01 For Inland Rural Areas Only

Forecast Panhandle North- 14-18
Observed-
De Funiak Springs 19
Crestview 20
Tallahassee 21

Forecast North- 14-18
Observed-
Bell 19
Chiefland 19
Geneva 20
Alachua 20

Forecast North Central- 16-20
Observed-
Brooksville 16 Below 32 13 hrs., Below 26 11 hrs
Mt. Plymouth 17
Inverness 19
Ocala 21
Okahumpa 21
Orlando 30 (Urban)

Forecast Central- 20-24
Observed-
Scottsmoor 22
West Plant City 22, Ground 16 Below 32 13 hrs., below 26 9 hrs.
Balm 23
Lakeland 24
Palm Bay 24
Ruskin 28
Dover 28
Melbourne 28 (Coast)
Clearwater 31 (Coast)
Tampa 31 (Urban)

Forecast South Central- 24-28
Observed-
Archbold 13
Ona 23 Below 32 8.5 hrs., 26 deg. 6 hours
Punta Gorda 25 (Coast)
Okeechobee 29
Vero Beach 29 (Coast)
Ft. Pierce 29 (Coast)

Forecast Northern Everglades- 24-28
Observed-
Several Locations in Collier And Hendry Counties- 21
Moore Haven 29
Belle Glade 29
Immokalee 28
Ft. Myers 29
Cape Coral 31
Naples 31

Southern Everglades- 28-32
Observed-
West Kendall 31 (Urban)
Homestead 32 (Urban)
Flamingo 33
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Issued 01/04/01 9:00 PM Sorry for the delay in posting but I had web server problems, plus am out in the field with agriculture customers and writing this via cell phone. I'm parked in a strawberry field and the 6 foot temp. is already 28 deg. and the one foot temp. is 22 deg. We experienced tremendous DAA during the afternoon with dew points dipping to 6 deg. at Apopka, 8 deg. here in Plant City and 10 deg. in West Palm beach. These are the second lowest dewpoints I've ever seen on the peninsula. Our forecast issued at 4:00 pm to customers is as follows.

Issued 01/04/01 4:00 PM Minimum temperature forecast for Friday Morning 01/05/01, inland rural area's only. This event will be a radiation freeze, however there will be a light north wind at less then 5 mph at times southern areas.

Panhandle North And Non Panhandle North- 14-18
North Central- 16-20
Central- 20-24
South Central/Northern Everglades- 24-28
Southern Everglades- 28-32
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Issued 01/04/01 12:00 PM Winds have now backed to northerly down the spine of the ridge, with dewpoints in the low teens advecting into the central peninsula and mid teens into the citrus growing areas of south central/northern Everglades. This very dry air is headed for deep south Florida and moderate or even hard freeze warnings may be issued there later today.
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Issued 01/04/01 10:00 AM The tentative state cold spot was 18 deg. at Crestview in the panhandle north. Unusual but the cold spot on the central peninsula occured here in Plant City with 25 deg. The subfreezing line dropped into inland south central with Ona at 31 deg. Very strong CAA occured overnight with temperature drops of up to 21 deg. between local midnight and sunrise, on 15 mph north winds. The strongest CAA and lowest dewpoints occured down the western side of the ridge, with quite a dewpoint discontinuity west to east across the citrus growing areas of south central/northern Everglades. This due to a slight onshore component along the east coast, related to a departing offshore low pressure center.

Low dewpoints in conjunction with strong post shortwave subsidence and high pressure centering over the central peninsula will create perfect radiational cooling conditions and huge temperature drops overnight, similar to January 1997. A hard freeze is expected into inland citrus growing areas of south central and northern Everglades, with areas north through west through SW expected to be the coldest.

We will post our low temperature forecast numbers here late in the day, after our paying customers receive there latest forecasts.
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Issued 01/03/01 11:00 AM The state cold spot was 16 deg. at Alachua in the non panhandle north. Citra had 24 deg. and Brooksville 27 in north central and Plant City 31 deg. in central, the southern extent of the subfreezing line this morning.

Expect a light advection freeze into the citrus growing areas of south central/northern Everglades for Thursday morning 01/04/01. Tentatively expect a hard radiative freeze into the citrus growing areas of south central/northern Everglades and a light to moderate freeze in the truck crop vegetable areas of the southern Everglades on Friday morning 01/05/01.

For Friday morning perfect radiative cooling conditions in conjunction with low dewpoints are expected across the peninsula, allowing minimum temperatures to fall below levels normally supported by existing 850 mb temperatures, which should be around 0 deg. celsius at Ft. Myers on Thursday. Similar conditions created the alleged "suprise freeze" in January 1997, that wiped out the complete truck vegetable crop in the southern Everglades.

There is a tendency to overemphasize cold weather impact on citrus crops in Florida and ignore vegetable crops, which have been king in Florida agriculture now for a long time. If the citrus industry still existed in central areas of the peninsula, as it one did before global warming :<)forced it south during the last 25 years, it would have been heavily damaged during the present series of coldwaves.
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Issued 01/02/01 3:00 PM The only two models of many that correctly handle arctic air intrusions into peninsular Florida, have backed off on the penetration of hard freeze conditions into the south. However as many other factors must also be considered, we still predict a hard freeze into the northern Everglades but now feel it will occur on Friday 01/05/01. Thursday morning 01/04/01 will be an advection freeze and Friday morning a radiative freeze.
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Issued 01/02/01 1:00 PM Another surge of modified arctic air is moving through the state today and tomorrow. The statewide cold spot this morning was 19 deg. at Geneva in the north. Brooksville had honors on the peninsula with 30 deg. Light rain showers moved through north central and west central this morning with temps. in the low to mid 30's. Here in Plant City it was 37 deg. during the rain but I didn't see any flakes or pellets. The 1200 UTC 1000-500 mb thickness values were 540 at Jacksonville and Tallahassee and pre frontal 551 at Tampa and Cape Canaveral. These values would not support snow but would ice pellets. Early morning Wednesday 01/03/01 looks like a hard freeze into the north, a light freeze north central and near freezing central. Early morning Thursday 01/04/01 looks like a hard freeze into the northern Everglades and a light freeze in the southern Everglades.
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Issued 01/01/01 9:30 PM It looks like a hard freeze into the Everglades on Thursday morning 1/4/01, with the 0 deg. celsius line into the Florida Straits and -4 deg. celsius to Ft. Myers.

01/01/01 Run Of AVN Model For 850 MB Temperature For Wednesday 1/3/01
01/01/01 Run Of ECMWF Model For 850 MB Temperature For Thursday 1/4/01
01/01/01 Run Of ECMWF Model For 500 MB Heights For Thursday 1/4/01
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Issued 01/01/01 7:00 PM For Tuesday morning 01/02/01 it looks like a light freeze north central with near freezing some spots central. Mid and high clouds ahead of the next cold front should preclude a widespread freeze tonight. Wednesday morning 01/03/01 it looks like a more widespread freeze. Thursday morning 01/04/01 looks to be the coldest yet with a hard freeze i