2008
KN4LF DAILY LF/MF/HF/6M
FREQUENCY RADIOWAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST #02

KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF/6M Frequency Radiowave Propagation Forecast #2008-02

Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY

Published Friday 01/11/2008 At 1930 UTC Valid Saturday-Friday 01/12-18/2008

11 contests are scheduled for the weekend of Saturday-Sunday 01/12-13, 2008. For more information check out the WA7BNM Contest website at http://www.hornucopia.com/contestcal/weeklycont.php

The big one as far as my personal interests is the PODXS 070 PSKFest.

GLOBAL NIGHT TIME LF 30-300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH EMPHASIS ON LF AM BROADCAST BAND-

GOOD to FAIR Northern Hemisphere.

FAIR to POOR Southern Hemisphere.

Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3

GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-

-Expect GOOD to FAIR Northern Hemisphere domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
 
*Expect GOOD to FAIR Hemisphere domestic conditions on north TO south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.

+Expect POOR to FAIR Northern Hemisphere domestic conditions on south TO north paths out to approximately 1100 miles.

-Expect FAIR to POOR Southern Hemisphere domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.

+Expect POOR Southern Hemisphere domestic conditions on north TO south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.

*Expect FAIR to POOR conditions on south TO north paths in the Southern Hemisphere out to approximately 1100 miles.

Equatorial region domestic propagation conditions out to approximately 1100 miles should be GOOD to FAIR.

High latitude Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD to FAIR.   

High latitude Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR to POOR.

Mid latitude Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD to FAIR.

Mid latitude Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR to POOR.

Low latitude Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD to FAIR.
 
Low latitude Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR to POOR.

Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere mid latitude propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD to FAIR.

Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere mid latitude propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR to POOR.

Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere high latitude propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD to FAIR.

Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere high latitude propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be FAIR to POOR. 

Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3

GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

Lower frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions tend to be impacted in a negative manner not by the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic storms that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the Radio Aurora). Also D layer signal absorption due elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions tend to be impacted in a negative manner by the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time and to a lesser extent due to geomagnetic storms that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the Radio Aurora). D layer signal absorption due elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0) is inconsequential on 20-10 meters.

Low: 0-25 degrees N/S

Mid: 25-60 degrees N/S

High: 60-90 degrees N/S

Low Latitude- GOOD on 80-30 meters ham /90-31 meters shortwave.

Mid Latitude- GOOD on 80-30 meters ham/90-31 meters shortwave.

High Latitude- GOOD to FAIR on 80-30 meters ham/90-31 meters shortwave.

Low Latitude- FAIR on 20-17 meters ham/25-17 meters shortwave.

Mid Latitude- FAIR on 20-17 meters ham/25-17 meters shortwave.

High Latitude- FAIR to POOR 20-17 meters ham/25-17 meters shortwave.

Low Latitude- POOR on 15-10 meters ham/13-11 meters shortwave.

Mid Latitude- POOR on 15-10 meters ham/13-11 meters shortwave.

High Latitude- POOR on 15-10 meters ham/13-11 meters shortwave.

Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3

GLOBAL HF 50-54 MC (6 METER) PROPAGATION MODES AND STRENGTHS ARE EXPECTED-

F2- NO

Sporadic E- YES/FAIR

Auroral E- YES/POOR

Tropospheric Ducting- YES/GOOD

Meteor Scatter- NO

Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3

None-S0

For global real time information concerning 6 meter band openings check out the VHFDX website at:

http://www.vhfdx.net/spots/map.php?Frec=MUF

GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
 
U.S. near real time lightning strike data:

http://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/explorer.html

A global view of near real time lightning strike data:

http://webflash.ess.washington.edu  

During the outlook period there will be MODERATE thunderstorm lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Northern hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect MODERATE to HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to Winter season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
 
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect LOW to MODERATE thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to Winter season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

During the outlook period there will be MODERATE to HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.

Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect HIGH to MODERATE thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to Summer season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical warm core low pressure systems.

Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect MODERATE to LOW thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to Summer season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

END OF FORECAST

DISCUSSION OF PAST CONDITIONS-

For 01/04-11/2008-

Per forecast #2008-01 the period was quiet to at times active. Overall LF, MF and HF frequency propagation conditions were good.

A recurring transequatorial Coronal Hole #306 (old #303) became geoeffective (Earth facing), the associated high velocity solar wind stream emanating from it was moderate and the impact to propagation conditions minor.

A new northern hemisphere Coronal Hole #307 became geoeffective (Earth facing) but the associated high velocity solar wind stream emanating from it was weak and the impact to propagation conditions nil.

Globally with the daily sunspot number as high as 26 and vaguely related solar flux level at 80, the Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF) did not rise high enough to give 6, 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters a boost in propagation conditions via the F layer. However 20 meters did experience a minor boost.

The following propagation modes and strengths were observed on 6 meters.

F2- NO

Sporadic E- YES/FAIR

Auroral E- YES/POOR

Tropospheric Ducting- YES/GOOD

Meteor Scatter- YES/FAIR

Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3

None-S0

There were some Sporadic E (Es) propagation openings on 6-160 meters.

In the Northern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUFs, there was significant east-west F layer propagation on 17 meters. There was also intermittent east-west F layer propagation openings on 15 meters.

In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore lower MUFs, there was little east-west F layer propagation on 10, 12 and 15, meters. There was intermittent east-west F layer propagation openings on 17 meters.

We saw 2 days consecutively with no visible sunspots and 5 days consecutively with visible sunspots on the Earth facing side of the Sun. Sunspots had been visible on the far side of the Sun via the SOHO holographic image.

Recurrent sunspot group #10980 (old #10978) had a beta twisted magnetic field capable of producing small size C class solar flares and did produce one C1 class solar flare.

Sunspot group #10981 had a beta twisted magnetic field capable of producing small size C class solar flares.

An odd as of yet unnumbered sunspot group formed yesterday at S05E17. It has the magnetic polarity of a solar cycle 24 sunspot group but is located just south of the Sun’s equator, which would make the group a solar cycle 23 sunspot group. Go figure!

Trans-equatorial (TEP) HF propagation between North and South America occurred, as well as between southern Africa to Europe/West Asia and also Australia to Eastern Asia/Oceania.

There was nil signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high and low latitude propagation paths in the Northern Hemisphere. The nil absorption allowed for good propagation conditions.

There was minor signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high and low latitude propagation paths in the Southern Hemisphere. The minor absorption degraded propagation conditions.

There was nil signal absorption on the LF band on high and low latitude paths in the Northern Hemisphere. The nil absorption allowed for good propagation conditions.

There was minor signal absorption on the LF band on high and low latitude propagation paths in the Southern Hemisphere. The minor absorption degraded propagation conditions.

At times moderate to high lightning QRN (static) hampered receive conditions on 160, 80, 40 30 and 20 meters in the Northern Hemisphere.

At times high lightning QRN hampered receive conditions on 160, 80, 40, 30 and 20 meters in the Southern Hemisphere.

DISCUSSION OF FUTURE CONDITIONS-

For 01/12-18/2008

A recurrent Coronal Hole #308 (old #304) will continue being geo-effective (Earth facing) and the associated high velocity solar wind stream emanating from it is moderate and the impact to propagation conditions will be minor to moderate.

Globally with the daily sunspot number and vaguely related solar flux level at low levels (~76), decreased F layer MUFs will negatively impact 6, 10, 12, 15, 17 and 20 meters.

There will be a few Sporadic E (Es) propagation openings on 10-160 meters.

In the Northern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUFs, there will be east-west F layer propagation on 17 meters. There will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 15 meters.

In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore lower MUFs, there will be little east-west F layer propagation on 10, 12 and 15, meters. However there will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.

Sunspot group #10981 has a beta twisted magnetic field capable of producing small size C class solar flares.

The following old sunspot groups may rotate around the east limb of the Sun during the forecast period if they survived the back side transit: None.

Trans-equatorial (TEP) HF propagation between North and South America will occur, as well between southern Africa to Europe/West Asia and also Australia to Eastern Asia/Oceania.

There will be minor signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high and low latitude propagation paths in the northern hemisphere. The minor absorption will at times degrade propagation conditions.

There will be minor signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high and low latitude propagation paths in the Southern Hemisphere. The minor absorption will degrade propagation conditions.

There will be minor signal absorption on the LF band on high and low latitude paths in the Northern Hemisphere. The minor absorption will at times degrade propagation conditions.

There will be minor signal absorption on the LF band on high and low latitude propagation paths in the Southern Hemisphere. The minor absorption will degrade propagation conditions.

At times high lightning QRN will hamper receive conditions on 160, 80, 40, 30 and 20 meters in the Northern Hemisphere.

At times high lightning QRN will hamper receive conditions on 160, 80, 40, 30 and 20 meters in the Southern Hemisphere.

SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

Kp 0-4, isolated 5.

During the period quiet (Kp 0-2) geomagnetic conditions WILL OCCUR.

During the period unsettled (Kp- 3) geomagnetic conditions WILL OCCUR.

During the period active (Kp- 4) geomagnetic conditions WILL OCCUR.

During the period minor (Kp- 5) geomagnetic storming conditions MAY OCCUR.

During the period moderate (Kp- 6) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

During the period strong (Kp- 7) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

During the period severe (Kp- 8) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

During the period extreme (Kp- 9) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is LOW.

The chance of daylight side SID radio blackouts from solar flares is LOW.

The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is LOW.

The chance of a partially geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is LOW.

The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole is HIGH.

Daily solar flux index levels (SFI) should range between 70-76.

The probability of a small C class solar flare is MODERATE.

The probability of a large M class solar flare is LOW.

The probability of a huge X class solar flare is LOW.

The NOAA/SEC Wang-Sheeley-Arge model forecasts the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity to be NEGATIVE between 01/12-14/2008 and then POSITIVE between 01/14-18/2008.

Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3

SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES FOR THE PERIOD 2200 UTC Friday 01/04/2008 TO 2200 UTC  Friday 01/11/2007

Sunspot Groups- Recurrent sunspot group #10980 (old #10978) with a beta twisted magnetic field produced 1 small C class solar flare.

Max/Min Solar Flux Readings- 75.1 to 80.0.

Max/Min SWPC Sunspot Number- 00 to 26.

Max/Min Solar Wind Speed- 271 to 778.

Max/Min Averaged Daily Background X-Ray Flux- A0.0 to A1.2.

Max/Min Dst Index- -42 to +27, via Kyoto.

Max/Min Dst Index- -35 to -7, via G3YNK.

Solar Flares- C-1 M-0 X-0

Elevated Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+0)- None.

A recurring transequatorial Coronal Hole #306 (old #303) became geoeffective (Earth facing), the associated high velocity solar wind stream emanating from it was moderate and the impact to propagation conditions minor.

A new northern hemisphere Coronal Hole #307 became geoeffective (Earth facing) but the associated high velocity solar wind stream emanating from it was weak and the impact to propagation conditions nil.

Geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- None

Partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- None

Polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0)- None.

The Ap index had been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 00-27.

The Kp index had been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 4.

The Boulder CO mid latitude K index had been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 4.

The Fredericksburg, MD mid latitude K index had been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 4.

The College, AK high latitude K index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels to moderate geomagnetic storming conditions, with a range of 0 to 6. 

The Troms, Norway high latitude K index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels to moderate geomagnetic storming conditions, with a range of 0 to 6. 

PROPAGATION LESSON-

From http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm

17.) Sporadic-D (Ds) Absorption & Wave Guiding-

Sporadic-D (Ds) occurrences have an inter-relationship with brief but intense Sun based and Galactic X-rays and Cosmic Rays, huge positive cloud to ground lightning strokes and interrelated Elves and Sprites. Very large bursts of Gamma Rays have also been observed to occur in conjunction with Sprites.

Sporadic-D (Ds) absorption occurs both at day and night. Much of the night time occurrence of Sporadic-D (Ds) absorption is often masked by lightning QRN, as well as a lack of radio operation during thunderstorm events, due to the lightning strike hazard and also due to the operator not being able to recognize the mode due to unfamiliarity with it. It's doubtful that you will read about the Sporadic-D (Ds) phenomena anywhere else other then on this website.

While on the topic of lightning and propagation, an ionized lightning channel which normally has a maximum diameter of approximately a silver dollar, can reflect RF much like meteor trails do. I've personally noticed it on the 70 cm band, as a single propagation burst lasting 1/4 to 1/2 second. (See definition #20. D Layer Mid Winter Absorption Anomaly).

SPACE WEATHER SCALES-
 
Kp Indices-
 
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3

Ap Indices-
 
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
 
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
 
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400

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KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Frequency Radiowave Propagation Forecast #2008-01

Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY

Published Thursday 01/03/2008 At 2200 UTC Valid 01/04-10/2008

GLOBAL LF 30-300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH EMPHASIS ON LF AM BROADCAST BAND-

GOOD Northern Hemisphere.

FAIR Southern Hemisphere.

Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3

GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-

-Expect GOOD Northern Hemisphere domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
 
*Expect FAIR to GOOD Hemisphere domestic conditions on north TO south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.

+Expect FAIR to POOR Northern Hemisphere domestic conditions on south TO north paths out to approximately 1100 miles.

-Expect FAIR Southern Hemisphere domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.

+Expect POOR Southern Hemisphere domestic conditions on north TO south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.

*Expect POOR to FAIR conditions on south TO north paths in the Southern Hemisphere out to approximately 1100 miles.

Equatorial region domestic propagation conditions out to approximately 1100 miles should be FAIR.

 High latitude Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.   

High latitude Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR.

 Mid latitude Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.

Mid latitude Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR.

Low latitude Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
 
Low latitude Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR.

Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere mid latitude propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR to GOOD.

Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere mid latitude propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be POOR to FAIR.

Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere high latitude propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR to GOOD.

Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere high latitude propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be POOR to FAIR. 

Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3

GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

Lower frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions tend to be impacted in a negative manner not by the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic storms that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the Radio Aurora). Also D layer signal absorption due elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions tend to be impacted in a negative manner by the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time and to a lesser extent due to geomagnetic storms that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the Radio Aurora). D layer signal absorption due elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0) is inconsequential on 20-10 meters.

Low: 0-25 degrees N/S

Mid: 25-60 degrees N/S

High: 60-90 degrees N/S

Low Latitude- GOOD on 80-30 meters ham /90-31 meters shortwave.

Mid Latitude- GOOD on 80-30 meters ham/90-31 meters shortwave.

High Latitude- GOOD on 80-30 meters ham/90-31 meters shortwave.

Low Latitude- FAIR to GOOD on 20-17 meters ham/25-17 meters shortwave.

Mid Latitude- FAIR to GOOD on 20-17 meters ham/25-17 meters shortwave.

High Latitude- FAIR to GOOD 20-17 meters ham/25-17 meters shortwave.

Low Latitude- POOR on 15-10 meters ham/13-11 meters shortwave.

Mid Latitude- POOR on 15-10 meters ham/13-11 meters shortwave.

High Latitude- POOR on 15-10 meters ham/13-11 meters shortwave.

Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3

GLOBAL HF 50-54 MC (6 METER) PROPAGATION MODES AND STRENGTHS ARE EXPECTED-

F2- NO

Sporadic E- YES/FAIR

Auroral E- NO

Tropospheric Ducting- YES/GOOD

Meteor Scatter- YES/GOOD 01/04/2008 0100-0800 UTC Quadrantid meteor shower. http://www.spaceweather.com/meteors/quadrantids/quadrantids.html  NO 01/05-10/2008

Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3

None-S0

For global real time information concerning 6 meter band openings check out the VHFDX website at:

http://www.vhfdx.net/spots/map.php?Frec=MUF

GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
 
U.S. near real time lightning strike data:

http://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/explorer.html

A global view of near real time lightning strike data:

http://webflash.ess.washington.edu  

During the outlook period there will be MODERATE thunderstorm lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Northern hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect MODERATE thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to Winter season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
 
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect LOW thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to Winter season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

During the outlook period there will be HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.

Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect HIGH to MODERATE thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to Summer season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical warm core low pressure systems.

Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect MODERATE to LOW thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to Summer season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

END OF FORECAST

DISCUSSION OF PAST CONDITIONS-

For 12/28/2007- 01/03/2008-

Per forecast #2008-01 the period was very quiet. Overall LF, MF and HF frequency propagation conditions were good.

A recurring northern hemisphere Coronal Hole #305 (old #301) became geoeffective (Earth facing) but the associated high velocity solar wind stream emanating from it was weak and the impact to propagation conditions nil.

Globally with the daily sunspot number as high as 13 and vaguely related solar flux level at 81, the Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF) did not rise high enough to give 6, 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters a boost in propagation conditions via the F layer.

The following propagation modes and strengths were observed on 6 meters.

F2- NO

Sporadic E- YES/FAIR

Auroral E- NO

Tropospheric Ducting- YES/GOOD

Meteor Scatter- NO

There were some Sporadic E (Es) propagation openings on 6-160 meters.

In the Northern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUFs, there was significant east-west F layer propagation on 17 meters. There was also intermittent east-west F layer propagation openings on 15 meters.

In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore lower MUFs, there was little east-west F layer propagation on 10, 12 and 15, meters. There was intermittent east-west F layer propagation openings on 17 meters.

We saw 4 days consecutively with no visible sunspots and 3 days consecutively with visible sunspots on the Earth facing side of the Sun. Sunspots had been visible on the far side of the Sun via the SOHO holographic image.

On 01/01/2008 recurrent sunspot group #10980 (old #10978) rose above the eastern limb of the Sun and on 01/03/2008 at location S07E59 has a beta twisted magnetic field capable of producing small size C class solar flares and medium size M class solar flares.

Trans-equatorial (TEP) HF propagation between North and South America occurred, as well as between southern Africa to Europe/West Asia and also Australia to Eastern Asia/Oceania.

There was nil signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high and low latitude propagation paths in the Northern Hemisphere. The nil absorption allowed for good propagation conditions.

There was minor signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high and low latitude propagation paths in the Southern Hemisphere. The minor absorption degraded propagation conditions.

There was nil signal absorption on the LF band on high and low latitude paths in the Northern Hemisphere. The nil absorption allowed for good propagation conditions.

There was minor signal absorption on the LF band on high and low latitude propagation paths in the Southern Hemisphere. The minor absorption degraded propagation conditions.

At times moderate lightning QRN hampered receive conditions on 160 and 80 meters in the Northern Hemisphere.

At times major lightning QRN hampered receive conditions on 160, 80, 40, 30 and 20 meters in the Southern Hemisphere.

DISCUSSION OF FUTURE CONDITIONS-

For 01/04-10/2008

A small recurrent transequatorial Coronal Hole #306 (old #303) will become geo-effective (Earth facing) on 01/04/2008 but the associated high velocity solar wind stream emanating from it is weak and the impact to propagation conditions will be minor.

A new small northern hemisphere Coronal Hole #307 will become geoeffective (Earth facing) on 01/06/2008 but the associated high velocity solar wind stream emanating from it is weak and the impact to propagation conditions will be minor.

Globally with the daily sunspot number and vaguely related solar flux level at moderate levels (~94), increased F layer MUFs will positively impact 10, 12, 15, 17 and 20 meters but not 6 meters.

There will be a few Sporadic E (Es) propagation openings on 10-160 meters.

In the Northern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUFs, there will be east-west F layer propagation on 17 meters. There will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 15 meters.

In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore lower MUFs, there will be little east-west F layer propagation on 10, 12 and 15, meters. However there will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.

Recurrent sunspot group #10980 (old #10978) at location S07E59 has a beta twisted magnetic field capable of producing small C class solar flares and mdeium M class solar flares.

The following old sunspot groups may rotate around the east limb of the Sun during the forecast period if they survived the back side transit: None.

Trans-equatorial (TEP) HF propagation between North and South America will occur, as well between southern Africa to Europe/West Asia and also Australia to Eastern Asia/Oceania.

There will be nil signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high and low latitude propagation paths in the northern hemisphere. The nil absorption will allow for good propagation conditions.

There will be minor signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high and low latitude propagation paths in the Southern Hemisphere. The minor absorption will degrade propagation conditions.

There will be nil signal absorption on the LF band on high and low latitude paths in the Northern Hemisphere. The nil signal absorption will allow for good propagation conditions.

There will be minor signal absorption on the LF band on high and low latitude propagation paths in the Southern Hemisphere. The minor absorption will degrade propagation conditions.

At times moderate lightning QRN will hamper receive conditions on 160 and 80 meters in the Northern Hemisphere.

At times major lightning QRN will hamper receive conditions on 160, 80, 40, 30 and 20 meters in the Southern Hemisphere.

SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

Kp 0-4, isolated 5.

During the period quiet (Kp 0-2) geomagnetic conditions WILL OCCUR.

During the period unsettled (Kp- 3) geomagnetic conditions WILL OCCUR.

During the period active (Kp- 4) geomagnetic conditions WILL OCCUR.

During the period minor (Kp- 5) geomagnetic storming conditions MAY OCCUR.

During the period moderate (Kp- 6) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

During the period strong (Kp- 7) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

During the period severe (Kp- 8) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

During the period extreme (Kp- 9) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is LOW.

The chance of daylight side SID radio blackouts from solar flares is LOW.

The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is LOW.

The chance of a partially geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is HIGH.

The negative impact on radiowave propagation conditions from a partially geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is hard to forecast. Therefore this CME which is associated with a recent long duration C1.2 class solar flare has the potential to wreck my current “good” propagation forecast.

The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole is HIGH.

Daily solar flux index levels (SFI) should range between 80-94.

The probability of a small C class solar flare is HIGH.

The probability of a large M class solar flare is MODERATE.

The probability of a huge X class solar flare is LOW.

The NOAA/SEC Wang-Sheeley-Arge model forecasts the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity to be NEGATIVE.

Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3

SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES FOR THE PERIOD 2200 UTC 12/28/2007 TO 2200 UTC 01/03/2007

Sunspot Groups- Recurrent sunspot group #10980 (old #10978) with a beta twisted magnetic field produced 4 small C class solar

flares.

Max/Min Solar Flux Readings- 70.3 to 79.2.

Max/Min SWPC Sunspot Number- 00 to 13.

Max/Min Solar Wind Speed- 313 to 496.

Max/Min Averaged Daily Background X-Ray Flux- A0.0 to A6.2.

Max/Min Dst Index- -28 to +2, via Kyoto.

Max/Min Dst Index- -15 to +/-??, via G3YNK.

Solar Flares- C-4 M-0 X-0

Elevated Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+0)- None.

A recurring northern hemisphere Coronal Hole #305 (old #301) became geoeffective (Earth facing) but the associated high velocity solar wind stream emanating from it was weak and the impact to propagation conditions was nil.

Geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- None

Partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 1

Polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0)- None.

The Ap index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels, with a range of 00-07.

The Kp index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 2.

The Boulder CO mid latitude K index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 2.

The Fredericksburg, MD mid latitude K index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 2.

The College, AK high latitude K index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 1. 

The Troms, Norway high latitude K index had been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 4. 

PROPAGATION LESSON-

From http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm

16.) Solar Flare-

A day side Earth bound solar filament and/or approximate C5 class or higher solar flare can move the proton flux >10 MeV (10+0) and initiate large scale high latitude propagation path absorption but even smaller C4 class flares and weaker are the culprit behind hour-to-hour and night-to-night variations in signal strength on the AM broadcast band and 160 meters, both stateside and DX. This transfer of increased density and RF signal absorption from the day-side D layer to night-side of the ionosphere occurs through high level neutral winds.

X-Ray Class Solar Flare. The rank of a solar flare based on its X-ray energy output. Flares are classified by the order of magnitude of the peak burst intensity (I) measured at the earth in the 1 to 10 angstrom band as follows:
Class (in Watt/sq. Meter)
B- I less than (l.t.) 10.0E-06
C- 10.0E-06 l.e.= I l.t.= 10.0E-05
M- 10.0E-05 l.e.= I l.t.= 10.0E-04
X- I g.e.= 10.0E-04

Background radiation in the 1 to 10 Angstrom range (Hard X-Ray's), as well as Solar and Galactic Cosmic Rays and ionization of Nitric Oxide (NO) in our atmosphere is the source of ionization of the D layer.

Basically a C-class solar flare possesses energy 1/10 the level of an M- class solar flare and an M-class solar flare possesses energy 1/10 the level on an X-class solar flare. (See definition #15. Shortwave Fadeout).).

Solar flares are not random meaningless explosions but instead a process inter-related with Coronal Mass Ejections (CME's), by which the Sun expels complex magnetic signatures enroute to changing its magnetic polarity or said a different way the swapping of the Sun's magnetic poles. Basically the Sun swapped it magnetic polarity at the peak of present Solar Cycle 23 somewhere between July 2000 and December 2001. The next polarity swap will occur during Solar Cycle 24 somewhere around 2010-2011.

SPACE WEATHER SCALES-
 
Kp Indices-
 
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3

Ap Indices-
 
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
 
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
 
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400