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KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF/6M Frequency Radiowave Propagation Forecast #2008-09
Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY.
Published Friday 02/29/2008 At 2000 UTC Valid Saturday-Friday 03/01-07/2008
5 contests are scheduled for the weekend of Saturday-Sunday 03/01-02, 2008. For more information check out the WA7BNM Contest website at http://www.hornucopia.com/contestcal/weeklycont.php .
The most popular ones are the ARRL International SSB DX Contest, Open Ukraine RTTY Championship and DARC 10-Meter Digital Contest.
Note!!! A possible new or recurrent solar cycle 23 significant sunspot group will rise around the east limb of the Sun today or tomorrow UTC. A couple of days ago it hurled a non geoeffective (non Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) into space. In future days it could significantly impact my LF, MF and HF propagation forecast for better or worse.
GLOBAL LF 30-300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH EMPHASIS ON LF AM BROADCAST BAND-
There exists a long distance “daytime” propagation medium between approximately 30-100 kc. The transmitted signal wave guides between the D layer and the surface of the Earth.
Northern Hemisphere Nighttime- POOR between 03/01-02/2008, FAIR between 03/02-03/2008, GOOD between 03/03-07/2008.
Southern Hemisphere Nighttime- POOR between 03/01-02/2008, FAIR between 03/02-07/2008.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
None- S0
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-
-Expect POOR to FAIR Northern Hemisphere
domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100
miles.
*Expect POOR to FAIR Northern Hemisphere domestic conditions on north to south
paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect FAIR to POOR Northern Hemisphere domestic conditions on south to north paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
-Expect POOR Southern Hemisphere domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect POOR Southern Hemisphere domestic conditions on north to south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect POOR Southern Hemisphere conditions on south to north paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect FAIR Equatorial domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
High latitude Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles will be POOR between 03/01-02/2008, FAIR between 03/02-03/2008, GOOD between 03/03-07/2008.
High latitude Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles will be POOR.
Mid latitude Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles will be will be POOR between 03/01-02/2008, FAIR between 03/02-03/2008, GOOD between 03/03-07/2008.
Mid latitude Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles will be POOR to FAIR.
Low latitude Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans
Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess
of approximately 3200 miles will be POOR between 03/01-02/2008, FAIR between
03/02-03/2008, GOOD between 03/03-07/2008.
Low latitude Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles will
be POOR to FAIR.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere mid latitude propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles will be POOR between 03/01-02/2008, FAIR between 03/02-03/2008, GOOD between 03/03-07/2008.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere mid latitude propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles will be POOR to FAIR.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere high latitude propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles will be POOR between 03/01-02/2008, FAIR between 03/02-03/2008, GOOD between 03/03-07/2008.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere high latitude propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles will be POOR.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
None- S0
GLOBAL F/F2 LAYER HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Lower frequency HF (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic storms that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the Radio Aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels and proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to geomagnetic storms. D layer signal absorption due to elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0) and elevated background solar flux levels, is usually but not always inconsequential on 20-10 meters.
Low Latitude- POOR between 03/01-02/2008, FAIR between 03/02-03/2008, GOOD between 03/03-07/2008 on 80-30 meters ham/90-31 meters shortwave.
Mid Latitude- FAIR between 03/01-02/2008, GOOD between 03/03-07/2008 on 80-30 meters ham/90-31 meters shortwave.
High Latitude- POOR between 03/01-02/2008, FAIR between 03/02-03/2008, GOOD between 03/03-07/2008 on 80-30 meters ham/90-31 meters shortwave.
Low Latitude- FAIR on 20-17 meters ham/25-17 meters shortwave.
Mid Latitude- FAIR on 20-17 meters ham/25-17 meters shortwave.
High Latitude- FAIR on 20-17 meters ham/25-17 meters shortwave.
Low Latitude- POOR to FAIR on 15 meters ham/13 meters shortwave.
Mid Latitude- POOR to FAIR on 15 meters ham/13 meters shortwave.
High Latitude- POOR to FAIR on 15 meters ham/13 meters shortwave.
Low Latitude- POOR on 12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave.
Mid Latitude- POOR on 12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave.
High Latitude- POOR on 12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave.
Note!!! At times propagation conditions on 12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave will be FAIR to GOOD, via the less predictable Sporadic E (Es) and Trans Equatorial (TEP) propagation modes.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
None- S0
GLOBAL HF 50-54 MC (6 METER) PROPAGATION MODES AND STRENGTHS EXPECTED-
F2- NO
Sporadic E- YES/FAIR to GOOD
Auroral E- YES/FAIR
Tropospheric Ducting- YES/GOOD
Meteor Scatter- YES/FAIR
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
None-S0
For global real time information concerning 6 meter band openings check out the VHFDX website at:
http://www.vhfdx.net/spots/map.php?Frec=MUF
A good source of information concerning 6 meter band openings via tropospheric ducting in the U.S. is at:
http://www.dxinfocentre.com/tropo.html
GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
U.S. near real time lightning strike data:
http://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/explorer.html
A global view of near real time lightning strike data:
http://webflash.ess.washington.edu
Northern hemisphere low latitude regions can
expect MODERATE thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to the Winter season
proximity of cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core
low pressure systems, as well as the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
Northern Hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect MODERATE to HIGH
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to Winter season cold/warm/occluded
fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Northern Hemisphere high latitude regions can expect LOW to MODERATE
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to Winter season cold/warm/occluded
fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Southern Hemisphere low latitude regions can
expect HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to the Summer season
proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core
low pressure systems.
Southern Hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect HIGH to MODERATE
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to Summer season cold/warm/occluded
fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems, as well as
tropical warm core low pressure systems.
Southern Hemisphere high latitude regions can expect MODERATE to LOW thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to Summer season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems, as well as tropical warm core low pressure systems.
END OF FORECAST
DISCUSSION OF PAST CONDITIONS-
For 02/23-29/2008-
Per forecast #2008-08 the period saw good LF, MF and HF frequency propagation conditions until Thursday 02/28/2008.
Globally with the daily sunspot number no higher than 13 and vaguely related solar flux level no higher than 72, the Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF) did not rise high enough to give 6, 10, 12, 15, 17 and 20 meters a boost in propagation conditions via the F layer.
The following propagation modes and strengths were observed on 6 meters.
F2- NO
Sporadic E- YES/Fair to GOOD
Auroral E- YES/FAIR
Tropospheric Ducting- YES/GOOD
Meteor Scatter- YES/FAIR
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
None-S0
There were some Sporadic E (Es) propagation openings on 6-160 meters.
There was quite a bit of Sporadic E (Es) and some Trans Equatorial (TEP) propagation between 2200-0200 UTC Thursday-Friday 02/28-29,/2008 on 10 and 6 meters. I made a TEP contact on 10 meter phone with PY2SRB in Brazil at 2200 UTC. There were also quite a few spots for 10 and 6 meter contacts via Es and even a multiple cloud Es propagation contact between VK4 and KH6 on 10 meters.
In the Northern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUFs, there was significant east-west F layer propagation on 17 meters. There was also intermittent to good east-west F layer propagation openings on 15 meters.
In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore lower MUFs, there was little east-west F layer propagation on 10, 12 and 15, meters. There were intermittent east-west F layer propagation openings on 17 meters.
We saw 2 days consecutively without visible sunspot groups on the Earth facing side of the Sun, then 4 days consecutively with visible sunspot groups on the Earth facing side of the Sun. Sunspot groups had also been visible on the far side of the Sun via the SOHO GONG holographic image.
No sunspot groups had a twisted magnetic field capable of producing small sized C class, medium sized M class and large sized X class solar flares.
A recurrent transequatorial Coronal Hole #315 (old #311) became geo-effective (Earth facing) and the associated high velocity solar wind stream emanating from it was strong and the impact to propagation conditions moderate to at times major.
Trans-equatorial (TEP) HF propagation between North and South America occurred, as well as between southern Africa to Europe/West Asia and also Australia to Eastern Asia/Oceania.
Beginning on Thursday 02/28/2008 there was moderate signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high and low latitude propagation paths in the Northern Hemisphere. The moderate absorption degraded propagation conditions.
Beginning on Thursday 02/28/2008 there was moderate signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high, medium and low latitude propagation paths in the Southern Hemisphere. The moderate absorption degraded propagation conditions.
Beginning on Thursday 02/28/2008 there was moderate signal absorption on the LF band on high and low latitude paths in the Northern Hemisphere. The moderate absorption degraded propagation conditions.
Beginning on Thursday 02/28/2008 there was moderate signal absorption on the LF band on high, medium and low latitude propagation paths in the Southern Hemisphere. The moderate absorption degraded propagation conditions.
High lightning QRN (static) hampered receive conditions on 160/120, 80/75, 41/40 and 31/30 meters in the Northern Hemisphere.
High lightning QRN (static) hampered receive conditions on 160/120, 80/75, 41/40, 31/30 and 22/20 meters in the Southern Hemisphere.
DISCUSSION OF FUTURE CONDITIONS-
For 03/01-07/2008-
Beginning on Thursday-Friday 03/07-08/2008 a recurrent transequatorial Coronal Hole #316 (old #312) will become geo-effective (Earth facing) and the associated high velocity solar wind stream emanating from it will be strong and the impact to propagation conditions moderate.
Globally with the daily sunspot number at ~11 and vaguely related solar flux level at low levels (~72), decreased F layer MUFs will negatively impact 6, 10, 12, 15, 17 and 20 meters.
There will be a few Sporadic E (Es) propagation openings on 6-160 meters.
In the Northern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUFs, there will be east-west F layer propagation on 17 meters. There will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 15 meters.
In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore lower MUFs, there will be little east-west F layer propagation on 10, 12 and 15, meters. However there will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.
A possible new solar cycle 23 sunspot group (#10984) will rise around the east limb of the Sun today or tomorrow and may contain a twisted magnetic field capable of producing small sized C class, medium sized M class solar flares.
The following old sunspot groups may rotate around the east limb of the Sun during the forecast period if they survived the back side transit- None.
Trans-equatorial (TEP) HF propagation between North and South America will occur, as well between southern Africa to Europe/West Asia and also Australia to Eastern Asia/Oceania.
There will be minor signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high and low latitude propagation paths in the Northern Hemisphere. The minor absorption will continue to degrade propagation conditions.
There will be minor signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high, mid and low latitude propagation paths in the Southern Hemisphere. The minor absorption will continue to degrade propagation conditions.
There will be minor signal absorption on the LF band on high and low latitude paths in the Northern Hemisphere. The minor absorption will continue to degrade propagation conditions.
There will be minor signal absorption on the LF band on high, mid and low latitude propagation paths in the Southern Hemisphere. The minor absorption will continue to degrade propagation conditions.
High lightning QRN will hamper receive conditions on 160/120, 80/75, 41/40 and 31/30 meters in the Northern Hemisphere.
High lightning QRN will hamper receive conditions on 160/120, 80/75, 41/40, 31/30 and 22/20 meters in the Southern Hemisphere.
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
For 03/01-07/2008-
Kp 0-4, isolated 5.
During the period quiet (Kp 0-2) geomagnetic conditions WILL OCCUR.
During the period unsettled (Kp- 3) geomagnetic conditions WILL OCCUR.
During the period active (Kp- 4) geomagnetic conditions WILL OCCUR.
During the period minor (Kp- 5) geomagnetic storming conditions MAY OCCUR.
During the period moderate (Kp- 6) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.
During the period strong (Kp- 7) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.
During the period severe (Kp- 8) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.
During the period extreme (Kp- 9) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.
The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is LOW.
The chance of daylight side Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances (SID) radio blackouts from solar flares is LOW.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is LOW.
The chance of a partially geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is LOW.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole is HIGH.
Daily max./min. solar flux index levels (SFI) should range between 72 and 68.
The probability of a small C class solar flare is LOW.
The probability of a large M class solar flare is LOW.
The probability of a huge X class solar flare is LOW.
The NOAA/SEC Wang-Sheeley-Arge model forecasts the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity to be NEGATIVE.
PAST SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES-
For 02/23-29/2008-
Sunspot Groups- No sunspot groups had a twisted magnetic field capable of producing small sized C class, medium sized M class and large sized X class solar flares.
Max/Min Solar Flux Readings- 71.5 to 68.9.
Max/Min SWPC Sunspot Number- 13 to 00.
Max/Min Solar Wind Speed- 730 to 315.
Max/Min DST via Kyoto- -38 to +20.
Max/Min DST via G3YNK- -49 to -7.
Solar Flares- C-0 M-0 X-0
Elevated Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+0)- None.
A recurrent transequatorial Coronal Hole #315 (old #311) became geo-effective (Earth facing) and the associated high velocity solar wind stream emanating from it was strong and the impact to propagation conditions moderate to major.
Geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- None.
Partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- None
Polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0)- None.
The Ap index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels to minor geomagnetic storming conditions, with a range of 00-48.
The Kp index had been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels to minor geomagnetic storming, with a range of 0 to 5.
The Boulder CO mid latitude K index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels to minor geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 5.
The Fredericksburg, MD mid latitude K index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels to minor geomagnetic storming levels,
with a range of 0 to 5.
The College, AK high latitude K index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels to moderate geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 6.
The Troms, Norway high latitude K index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels to strong geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 7.
PROPAGATION LESSON-
From http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
24.) Plage-
A patchy H-alpha brightening on the solar disk commonly found in or near active regions of which can last for several days or so. A Plage is irregular in shape and variable in brightness and marks areas of nearly vertical emerging or reconnecting magnetic field lines. Often times a sunspot group will emerge from a Plage. (See definition #14. Sunspot Group).
SPACE WEATHER SCALES-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices--
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my propagation forecasts. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from the RAW public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2008 by Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF. Reproduction of and distribution of information herein is allowed without advanced permission as long as proper credit is given.
Also space weather forecasting is still an
inexact science. The forecasts are not official but for hobby related purposes
only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or
warranty implied.