KN4LF 2008 AGE 51
PROPAGATION FORECASTER

Welcome to my "not for profit" daily solar, space weather and geomagnetic data archive website! This propagation site is dedicated to providing timely resource information on and website links to daily solar, space weather and geomagnetic data. It also exists as an educational tool.

This propagation site is one of the oldest in existence on the WWW dating back to 1996. Here you will find links to my KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF/6M Frequency Radiowave Propagation Forecast, KN4LF 160 Meter Radio Propagation Theory Notes and LF/MF/HF/VHF Frequency Radiowave Propagation Email Reflector. You will also find many website links to solar, space weather and geomagnetic data, current solar, space weather and geomagnetic data and also data archived back to 2001.

Though this site may not have the best looking eye candy on the WWW, it's probably unique in that it covers all aspects of the science. I hope that you find this site both useful and educational.

My website conglomeration of solar, space weather, geomagnetic data, as well as my KN4LF 160 Meter (LF, MF, HF, VHF) Radio Propagation Theory Notes and KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF/6M Frequency Radiowave Propagation Forecast currently consists of 98 websites and is growing daily. This adds up to many megs of data and allot of $$$ for leased space on a commercial web server. If you find the information contained within useful and would like to donate some $$$ to assist in keeping all of the data online click on the button below.

Contact Info:
kn4lf at arrl dot net

 

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GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF/HF PROPAGATION CONDX

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2008 by Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic indices numbers are better.

2.) A solar flux of 150 or higher, 200+ best, for medium frequencies under 100, under 70 best.

3.) Solar flux of at least 150 for E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively is best.

5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background X-Ray flux levels less than A1 for several days consecutively.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path Auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -20 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a Geomagnetic Storm, as related to the Equatorial Ring Current. A positive number best.

11.) Rising Positive T Index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.

G4ILO has written a piece of propagation prediction software called VOAProp. It is actually an interface for the very accurate but otherwise difficult to use VOACAP software written by the Voice Of America and honed to near perfection over many decades. After you download VOAProp you then download VOACAP and the two pieces of software work together in a seamless fashion. When you unzip the VOACAP file called itshfbc allow it to install on your C:\ drive directly, not into the "Programs Files" folder. The software covers 1.8-30 mc and the 120-11 meter shortwave bands. BTW both pieces of software are free. The software produces a pretty accurate propagation forecast and I always have the software running while operating the MF/HF bands.

CLICK HERE FOR SOLAR SPACE WEATHER AND
GEOMAGNETIC DATA IN GRAPHIC AND IMAGE FORMAT

Posted May 05, 2008:

We have a brand new sunspot group #10993 that was numbered by NOAA SWPC today. It is the third solar cycle 24 sunspot group. It emerged yesterday as S724.

At this point it is a lone small spot that will not impact the upper HF bands in a positive manner. However it is a continued step in the right direction for emerging solar cycle 24.

As follows are monthly observed maximum and minimum solar flux index data readings for solar cycle 23 between 1996-2008, as measured from Penticton, BC, Canada, using the "highest" of the three daily values, not just the 2000 UTC value like all other propagation data archive websites.

*- Beginning of solar cycle 23
#- Highest daily solar flux index reading for solar cycle 23
@- Highest monthly average solar flux index reading for solar cycle 23

Monthly Maximum & Minimum Solar Flux Index (SFI) Readings

     96       97        98      99       00
            
JAN  086/069  078/067  102/081  178/110  211/130
FEB  076/068  081/069  107/083  208/099  227/138
MAR  074/067  077/069  133/090  157/102  236/178
APR  074/067  081/068  141/088  145/097  223/158
MAY *078/066  085/070  133/087  183/137  262/126
JUN  074/067  078/068  122/096  210/139  202/148
JUL  087/065  082/067  129/099  206/129  262/148
AUG  081/067  097/070  179/109  264/129  193/131
SEP  074/066  119/085  177/117  163/105  232/133
OCT  073/066  091/079  135/103  200/122  203/140
NOV  106/068  118/089  168/115  249/143  204/144
DEC  088/066  117/085  184/129  217/130  201/135

     01      02      03       04      05      06 
            
JAN  184/152 261/188 189/112 135/087 181/085 094 077 
FEB  170/130 257/188 150/101 124/095 122/075 079/074 
MAR  294/130 209/165 161/089 134/090 115/074 086/072 
APR  258/123 226/147 166/098 117/087 106/077 101/075 
MAY  210/129 193/157 218/091 118/085 127/082 096/071
JUN  221/133 179/131 200/106 119/082 105/079 087/071
JUL  150/115 275/129 162/099 197/077 130/071 092/069
AUG  205/120 244/135 137/104 156/083 112/075 094/070
SEP  285/183 221/136 141/094 222/088 119/074 089/070
OCT  263/171 191/136#318/092 148/086 083/072 082/069
NOV  271/170 204/138 237/091 141/095 102/077 098/076
DEC@ 285/207 245/111 143/084 113/081 106/085 105/071

     07      08      09       10      11      12 
            
JAN  091/075!080/070 
FEB  090/072 073/069
MAR  076/069 089/067
APR  087/068 078/066
MAY  087/067
JUN  091/065 
JUL  080/065 
SEP  071/%064 
OCT ?070/065 
NOV  072/065 
DEC  094/070