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KN4LF DAILY LF/MF/HF/6M FREQUENCY RADIOWAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST #2008-34
Note! This propagation forecast is global in coverage.
Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY.
Published Friday 11/28/2008 at 1500 UTC.
Valid 0000 UTC Saturday 11/29/2008 through 2359 UTC Friday 12/05/2008.
CONTEST INFORMATION-
One contest is scheduled for the weekend of Saturday-Sunday 11/29-30/2008. The most popular one is:
CW Worldwide DX CW Contest.
For more information on contests worldwide check out the WA7BNM website at http://www.hornucopia.com/contestcal/weeklycont.php and the SM3CER Contest Service website http://www.sk3bg.se/contest .
GLOBAL LF 30-300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH EMPHASIS ON LF AM BROADCAST BAND-
There exists a long distance “daytime” propagation medium between approximately 30-100 kc. The transmitted signal wave guides between the D layer and the surface of the Earth.
Some day time sky wave propagation does occur between approximately 100-300 kc via the E layer, especially at higher latitudes in the winter time and at the bottom of a solar cycle.
Reception is tied to the density of the D layer, as well as the E layer at radio Aurora altitude. Geomagnetic storming will suppress night time reception of signals but enhance day time reception of signals. High power broadcasters are more readily heard than low power ham radio signals.
Northern hemisphere- day time- FAIR night time- GOOD
Southern hemisphere- day time- FAIR night time- GOOD
Propagation Forecast
Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
None- S0
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON 600 METERS, THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-
-Expect GOOD northern
hemisphere domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to
approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect FAIR TO GOOD northern hemisphere domestic conditions on north to south
paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect FAIR TO POOR northern hemisphere domestic conditions on south to north paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
-Expect GOOD southern hemisphere domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect FAIR TO GOOD southern hemisphere conditions on south to north paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect FAIR TO POOR southern hemisphere domestic conditions on north to south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
-Expect GOOD equatorial domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
High latitude northern hemisphere (TA) trans atlantic, (TI) trans indian, (TP) trans pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles will be FAIR TO GOOD.
High latitude southern hemisphere (TA) trans atlantic, (TI) trans indian, (TP) trans pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles will be FAIR TO GOOD.
Mid latitude northern hemisphere (TA) trans atlantic, (TI) trans indian, (TP) trans pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles will be GOOD.
Mid latitude southern hemisphere (TA) trans atlantic, (TI) trans indian, (TP) trans pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles will be GOOD
Low latitude northern hemisphere (TA) trans atlantic, (TI) trans indian, (TP) trans pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles will be GOOD.
Low latitude southern hemisphere (TA) trans atlantic, (TI) trans indian, (TP) trans pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles will be GOOD.
Equatorial region to northern hemisphere high latitude propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles will be FAIR TO GOOD.
Equatorial region to southern hemisphere high latitude propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles will be FAIR TO GOOD.
Equatorial region to northern hemisphere mid latitude propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles will be GOOD.
Equatorial region to southern hemisphere mid latitude propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles will be GOOD.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
None- S0
GLOBAL F/F2 LAYER HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Lower frequency HF (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic storms that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels and proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to geomagnetic storms. D layer signal absorption due to elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0) and elevated background solar flux levels, is usually but not always inconsequential on 20-10 meters.
Low: 0-25 degrees
Mid: 25-60 degrees
High: 60-90 degrees
Northern Hemisphere-
Low latitude- GOOD on 80-30 meters ham/90-31 meters shortwave broadcast.
Mid latitude- GOOD on 80-30 meters ham/90-31 meters shortwave broadcast.
High latitude- FAIR TO GOOD on 80-30 meters ham/90-31 meters shortwave broadcast.
Low latitude- GOOD on 20-17 meters ham/25-17 meters shortwave broadcast.
Mid latitude- GOOD on 20-17 meters ham/25-17 meters shortwave broadcast.
High latitude- FAIR TO GOOD on 20-17 meters ham/25-17 meters shortwave broadcast.
Low latitude- FAIR on 15 meters ham/13 meters shortwave broadcast.
Mid latitude- FAIR on 15 meters ham/13 meters shortwave broadcast.
High latitude- POOR TO FAIR on 15 meters ham/13 meters shortwave broadcast.
Low latitude- NONE TO POOR on 12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave broadcast.
Mid latitude- NONE TO POOR on 12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave broadcast.
High latitude- NONE on 12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave broadcast.
Southern Hemisphere-
Low latitude- GOOD on 80-30 meters ham/90-31 meters shortwave broadcast.
Mid latitude- GOOD on 80-30 meters ham/90-31 meters shortwave broadcast.
High latitude- FAIR TO GOOD on 80-30 meters ham/90-31 meters shortwave broadcast.
Low latitude- GOOD on 20-17 meters ham/25-17 meters shortwave broadcast.
Mid latitude- GOOD on 20-17 meters ham/25-17 meters shortwave broadcast.
High latitude- FAIR TO GOOD on 20-17 meters ham/25-17 meters shortwave broadcast.
Low latitude- FAIR on 15 meters ham/13 meters shortwave broadcast.
Mid latitude- FAIR on 15 meters ham/13 meters shortwave broadcast.
High latitude- POOR TO FAIR on 15 meters ham/13 meters shortwave broadcast.
Low latitude- NONE TO POOR on 12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave broadcast.
Mid latitude- NONE TO POOR on 12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave broadcast.
High latitude- NONE on 12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave broadcast.
Note!!! At times propagation conditions on 12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave will be FAIR to GOOD, via the less predictable Sporadic E (Es) and trans equatorial (TE) propagation modes which involves the F2/3 layer.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
None- S0
GLOBAL HF 50-54 MC (6 METER) PROPAGATION MODES AND STRENGTHS EXPECTED-
F2- NO
Sporadic E (Es)- YES/GOOD
Aurora E high latitude- NO
Aurora E mid latitude- NO
Troposphere ducting- YES/GOOD
Meteor Scatter- NO. Excluding occasional random meteors.
For more information about meteor shower events check out http://stardate.org/nightsky/meteors .
Note!!! At times propagation conditions on 6 meters will be FAIR to GOOD, via the less predictable trans equatorial (TE) propagation mode which involves the F2/3 layer.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
None-S0
For global real time information concerning 6 meter band openings check out the VHFDX website at:
http://www.vhfdx.net/spots/map.php?Frec=MUF
A good source of information concerning 6 meter band openings via troposphere ducting in the U.S. is at:
http://www.dxinfocentre.com/tropo.html
GLOBAL NOISE (QRN)
OUTLOOK-
U.S. near real time lightning strike data:
http://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/explorer.html
A global view of near real time lightning strike data:
http://webflash.ess.washington.edu
Northern hemisphere
low latitude regions can expect HIGH TO MODERATE thunderstorm lightning induced
QRN tied to the winter season proximity of cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect MODERATE TO HIGH thunderstorm
lightning induced QRN tied to winter season cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect LOW thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to winter season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere
low latitude regions can expect HIGH TO MODERATE thunderstorm lightning induced
QRN tied to the summer season proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
and tropical warm core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect MODERATE TO HIGH thunderstorm
lightning induced QRN tied to summer season cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical warm core
low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect LOW thunderstorm lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated
extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Lightning QRN will hamper receive conditions on 160/120 and 80/75 meters in the northern hemisphere.
Lightning QRN will hamper receive conditions on 160/120 and 80/75 meters in the southern hemisphere.
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Recurrent trans-equatorial Coronal Hole #350 (#346) will become geo-effective (Earth facing) and the associated high velocity solar wind stream emanating from it will be >500 m/s and the negative impact to propagation conditions minor (Kp-3-4).
Formation of a new geo-effective (Earth facing) coronal hole is also possible during the forecast period but is nearly impossible to forecast.
Globally with the daily sunspot number at ~00 and vaguely related solar flux level at ~68, decreased F layer MUFs will negatively impact 6, 10, 12 and 15 meters.
There will be Sporadic E (Es) propagation openings on 6-160 meters.
In the northern hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUFs, there will be east-west F layer propagation on 17 and 15 meters. There will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 12 and 10 meters.
In the southern hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore lower MUFs, there will be little east-west F layer propagation on 10, 12 and 15, meters. However there will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.
No sunspot groups will contain a twisted magnetic field capable of producing small sized C class, medium sized M class and large sized X class solar flares during the forecast period.
Formation of a new solar cycle 23 or 24 sunspot group is possible during the forecast period but is difficult to forecast. A tip off is a rising background solar flux level.
The following recurrent sunspot groups may rotate around the east limb of the Sun during the forecast period if they survived the back side transit- 11008 on 12/01/2008.
Trans equatorial (TE) HF propagation between southern north and southern South America will occur, as well between southern Africa and Europe/West Asia and also Australia and Eastern Asia/Oceania.
There will be nil signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high and low latitude propagation paths in the northern hemisphere. The nil absorption will allow for good propagation conditions. Expect continued good propagation conditions on 160 meters.
There will be nil signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high and low latitude propagation paths in the southern hemisphere. The nil absorption will allow for good propagation conditions. Expect continued good propagation conditions on 160 meters.
There will be nil signal absorption on the LF band on high and low latitude paths in the northern hemisphere. The nil to absorption will allow for good propagation conditions.
There will be nil signal absorption on the LF band on high and low latitude propagation paths in the southern hemisphere. The nil absorption will allow for good propagation conditions.
The following planetary geomagnetic conditions are forecasted:
11/29-12/03/2008 Kp 0-3, quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
12/04-05/2008 Kp 3-4, isolated 5, unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions, with isolated minor geomagnetic storming.
During the period quiet (Kp 0-2) geomagnetic conditions WILL OCCUR.
During the period unsettled (Kp- 3) geomagnetic conditions WILL OCCUR.
During the period active (Kp- 4) geomagnetic conditions WILL OCCUR.
During the period minor (Kp- 5) geomagnetic storming conditions MAY OCCUR.
During the period moderate (Kp- 6) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.
During the period strong (Kp- 7) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.
During the period severe (Kp- 8) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.
During the period extreme (Kp- 9) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.
The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is LOW.
The chance of daylight side sudden ionosphere disturbances (SID) radio blackouts from solar flares is LOW.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal mass ejection (CME) is LOW.
The chance of a partially geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal mass ejection (CME) is LOW.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal hole is HIGH.
Daily maximum/minimum solar flux index levels (SFI) should range between 70 and 67.
The probability of a small C class solar flare is LOW.
The probability of a large M class solar flare is LOW.
The probability of a huge X class solar flare is LOW.
When the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity is negative the probability of geomagnetic storming on Earth increases.
The NOAA/SWPC Wang-Sheeley-Arge model forecasts the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) to be NEGATIVE.
PROPAGATION LESSON-
From http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
24.) Plage-
A patchy H-alpha brightening on the solar disk commonly found in or near active regions of which can last for several days or so. A Plage is irregular in shape and variable in brightness and marks areas of nearly vertical emerging or reconnecting magnetic field lines. Often times a sunspot group will emerge from a Plage. (See definition #14. Sunspot Group).
SPACE WEATHER SCALES-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF/HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual
property. Therefore the propagation indices interpretations contained herein is
copyrighted © 1988-2008 by Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF, all rights reserved.
Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as
long as proper credit is given.
1.) Dropping indices numbers are better.
2.) A solar flux of 150 or higher, 200+ best, for medium frequencies under 100, under 70 best.
Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere for F layer medium frequency refractions, as the energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times. However most are used to solar flux and sunspot number and it's a hard habit to break. A better indicator is the background X-Ray Flux. See #7 below.
3.) Solar flux of at least 150 for E
Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively
is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high
latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than A1 for several days consecutively.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path Aurora absorption/unpredictable
refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -20 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a Geomagnetic Storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my propagation forecasts. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2008 by Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF. Reproduction of and distribution of information herein is allowed without advanced permission as long as proper credit is given.
Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The forecasts are not official but for hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
73 & God Bless,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Lakeland, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF/6M Frequency Radiowave Propagation Forecast & Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF 160 Meter Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
LF/MF/HF/VHF Frequency Radiowave Propagation Email Reflector: http://montreal.kotalampi.com/mailman/listinfo/kn4lf
Harmful Man Induced Climate Change (Global Warming) Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/globalwarminglie.htm