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NZ4O DAILY LF/MF/HF/6M FREQUENCY RADIOWAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST #2009-21

“A Radiowave Propagation Forecast For Hams And Shortwave Listeners”

I have to go out of town on Friday so I'm publishing the propagation forecast one day early.

Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY

Published on Thursday 06/25/2009 at 1700 UTC

Valid 0000 UTC Saturday 06/27/2009 through 2359 UTC Friday 07/03/2009

CONTEST INFORMATION-

Five contests are scheduled for the weekend of Saturday-Sunday 06/27-28/2009:

The most popular ones are:

ARRL Field Day

Ukrainian DX DIGI Contest

For more information on contests worldwide check out the WA7BNM website at http://www.hornucopia.com/contestcal/weeklycont.php and the SM3CER Contest Service website http://www.sk3bg.se/contest . Here is an interesting website about contesting in general. It's called the Contesting Compendium http://wiki.contesting.com/index.php/Main_Page .

GLOBAL LF 30-300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH EMPHASIS ON LF AM BROADCAST BAND-

There exists a long distance “daytime” propagation medium between approximately 30-100 kc. The transmitted signal wave guides between the D layer and the surface of the Earth.

Some daytime sky wave propagation also occurs between approximately 100-300 kc via the E layer, especially at higher latitudes in the winter time and at the bottom of a solar cycle.

Reception is tied to the density of the D layer, as well as the E layer at radio Aurora altitude. Geomagnetic storming will suppress night time reception of signals but enhance day time reception of signals. High power broadcasters are more readily heard than low power ham radio signals.

The forecast is for night time only.

Propagation Forecast Scale-

GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON 600 METERS, THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-

Magnetic Equator-

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE-

Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles

Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles

Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles

Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles

Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles

Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles

Propagation Forecast Scale-

GLOBAL F/F2 LAYER HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

Lower frequency HF (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic storms that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels and proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to geomagnetic storms. D layer signal absorption due to elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0) and elevated background solar flux levels, is usually but not always inconsequential on 20-10 meters.

Magnetic Equator-

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE-

80-30 meters ham/90-31 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions.

20-17 meters ham/25-17 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions.

15 meters ham/13 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions.

12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions.

Note!!! At times propagation conditions on 12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave will be FAIR to GOOD, via the less predictable Sporadic E (Es) and trans-equatorial (TE) propagation modes which involve the F2/3 layer.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE-

80-30 meters ham/90-31 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions.

20-17 meters ham/25-17 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions.

15 meters ham/13 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions.

12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions.

Note!!! At times propagation conditions on 12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave will be FAIR to GOOD, via the less predictable Sporadic E (Es) and trans-equatorial (TE) propagation modes which involve the F2/3 layer.

Propagation Forecast Scale-

GLOBAL HF 50-54 MC (6 METER) PROPAGATION MODES AND STRENGTHS EXPECTED FORECAST-

For more information about meteor shower events check out http://stardate.org/nightsky/meteors .

Propagation Forecast Scale-

For global real time information concerning 6 meter band openings check out the VHFDX website at:

http://www.vhfdx.net/spots/map.php?Frec=MUF

A good source of information concerning 6 meter band openings via troposphere ducting in the U.S. is at:

http://www.dxinfocentre.com/tropo.html

GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-

U.S. near real time lightning strike data:

http://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/explorer.html

A global view of near real time lightning strike data:

http://webflash.ess.washington.edu  

Northern hemisphere low latitude regions can expect VERY HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to summer season proximity to the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.

Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect VERY HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to summer season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems, also tropical warm core low pressure systems .

Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect MODERATE TO HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to summer season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

Southern hemisphere low latitude regions can expect MODERATE TO LOW thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to winter season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect LOW TO MODERATE thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to winter season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
 
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect LOW TO NONE thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to winter season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

Lightning QRN will hamper receive conditions on 160/120, 80/75, 60/60, 40/41, 30/31, 20/22 and 17/16 meters in the northern hemisphere.

Lightning QRN will hamper receive conditions on 160/120 and 80/75 meters in the southern hemisphere.

Lightning Induced Noise (QRN) Forecast Scale-

SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

New northern hemisphere Coronal Hole #372 will become geo-effective (Earth facing) and the associated high velocity solar wind stream emanating from it will be >500 m/s and the negative impact to propagation conditions minor (Kp-3-4, isolated 5).

Formation of a new geo-effective (Earth facing) coronal hole is possible during the forecast period but is nearly impossible to forecast. Fortunately formation of coronal holes occurs less often during the upside of a solar cycle like we are now seeing with solar cycle 24.

Globally with the daily sunspot number at ~00 and vaguely related solar flux level at ~68; decreased F layer MUFs will negatively impact 6, 10, 12 and 15 meters.

There will be Sporadic E (Es) propagation openings on 6-80 meters.

In the northern hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore lower MUFs, there will be little east-west F layer propagation on 10, 12 and 15, meters. However there will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.

In the southern hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUFs, there will be east-west F layer propagation on 17 and 15 meters. There will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 12 and 10 meters.

No sunspot groups will contain a twisted magnetic field capable of producing small C class, medium sized M class and large sized X class solar flares during the forecast period.

Formation of a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group is possible during the forecast period but is difficult to forecast. One tip off is a rising background solar flux level.

The following recurrent sunspot group(s) may rotate around the east limb of the Sun during the forecast period if they survived the back side transit- 11019 with beta magnetic signature.

Transequatorial (TE) HF propagation will occur during the local afternoon and evening period along an approximate 2500 miles path either side of the magnetic equator between North and South America will occur, as well between Africa and Europe/West Asia and also Australia and Eastern Asia/Oceania.

There will be moderate signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high and low latitude propagation paths in the northern hemisphere. The moderate absorption will degrade propagation conditions.

There will be minor signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high and low latitude propagation paths in the southern hemisphere. The minor absorption will degrade propagation conditions.

There will be moderate signal absorption on the LF band on high and low latitude paths in the northern hemisphere. The moderate absorption will degrade propagation conditions.

There will be minor signal absorption on the LF band on high and low latitude propagation paths in the southern hemisphere. The minor absorption will degrade propagation conditions.

The following (Kp) planetary geomagnetic conditions are forecasted:

06/27-28/2009- Kp 0-3.

06/29-30/2009- Kp 2-4, isolated 5.

07/01-03/2009- Kp 0-2, isolated 3.

 Kp Indices-

During the period quiet (Kp 0, 1, 2) geomagnetic conditions WILL OCCUR.

During the period unsettled (Kp- 3) geomagnetic conditions WILL OCCUR.

During the period active (Kp- 4) geomagnetic conditions WILL OCCUR.

During the period minor (Kp- 5) geomagnetic storming conditions MAY OCCUR.

During the period moderate (Kp- 6) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

During the period strong (Kp- 7) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

During the period severe (Kp- 8) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

During the period extreme (Kp- 9) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is LOW.

The chance of daylight side sudden ionosphere disturbances (SID) radio blackouts from solar flares is LOW.

The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal mass ejection (CME) is LOW.

The chance of a partially geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal mass ejection (CME) is LOW.

The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal hole is HIGH.

Daily maximum/minimum solar flux index levels (SFI) should range between 69 and 67.

The probability of a small C class solar flare is LOW.

The probability of a large M class solar flare is LOW.

The probability of a very large X class solar flare is LOW.

When the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity is negative the probability of geomagnetic storming on Earth increases. The NOAA/SWPC Wang-Sheeley-Arge model forecasts the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) to be NEGATIVE

SPACE WEATHER SCALES-

The Kp index is a measure of geomagnetic activity for the previous three hour period.

 Kp Indices-

The Ap index is a measure of geomagnetic activity for the previous 24 hour day.

Ap Indices-

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF/HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!!  The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2009 by Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

1.) Dropping indices numbers are better.

2.) A solar flux of 150 or higher, 200+ best, for medium frequencies under 100, fewer than 70 best.

Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere for F layer medium frequency refractions, as the energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times. However most are used to solar flux and sunspot number and it's a hard habit to break. A better indicator is the background X-Ray Flux. See #7 below.

3.) A solar flux in the mid 100’s for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
 
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than A1 for several days consecutively.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path Aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -20 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a Geomagnetic Storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best.

11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my propagation forecasts. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2009 by Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O. Reproduction of and distribution of information herein is allowed without advanced permission as long as proper credit is given.

Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The forecasts are not official but for hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

73 & GUD DX,

Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O

Lakeland, FL, USA

nz4o@arrl.net

NZ4O Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm 

NZ4O Daily LF/MF/HF/6M Frequency Radiowave Propagation Forecast & Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm 

NZ4O 160 Meter Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm 

NZ4O COL LF/MF/HF/VHF/UHF Frequency Radiowave Propagation Email Reflector: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/spaceweather

NZ4O Harmful Man Induced Climate Change (Global Warming) Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/globalwarminglie.htm