KN4LF Solar Cycle 23/24 Forecast Discussion Archive

As follows are recent month sunspot number averages. May took a big dip from April. Solar cycle 24 continues in the stalled mode and could continue to do so through winter 2009.

October- 2007 3.0
November- 2007 6.9
December 2007- 8.1
January- 2008- 8.5
February- 2008- 8.4
March 2008- 8.4
April 2008- 8.9
May 2008- 5.0

Just an FYI! On Saturday 06/21/2008 the three daily solar flux values measured at Pentiction, BC, Canada were 64.6 64.8 65.2. The 64.6 value is the second lowest of the current solar minimum. The lowest SFI of 64.4 occurred on 09/28/2007. Solar cycle 24 continues in the stalled mode and could continue to do so through late winter 2009.

Just an FYI! On Sunday 06/08/2008 the three solar flux values measured at Pentiction, BC, Canada were 64.8 64.9 64.9. The 64.8 value is the second
lowest of the current solar minimum. The lowest SFI of 64.4 occurred on 09/28/2007.

Using the smoothed sunspot number solar cycle 23 minimum was in October 2007 with a value of 3.0. Looking at the values below you can see that solar
cycle 24 has pretty much stalled since December 2007.

October 2007- 3.0
November 2007- 6.9
December 2007- 8.1
January 2008- 8.5
February 2008- 8.4
March 2008- 8.4
April 2008- 8.9

We have a brand new S725 (but as of yet unnumbered by the NOAA/SWPC) sunspot group and it has the magnetic polarity and latitude of a solar cycle 24 sunspot group. Hopefully this one will be numbered by NOAA/SWPC and if it is it will be the fourth sunspot group of solar cycle 24.

At this point it is a lone small spot that will not impact the upper HF bands in a positive manner. However it is a continued step in the right direction for emerging solar cycle 24.

We have a brand new sunspot group #10993 that was numbered by NOAA SWPC today. It is the third solar cycle 24 sunspot group. It emerged yesterday as S724.

At this point it is a lone small spot that will not impact the upper HF bands in a positive manner. However it is a continued step in the right direction for emerging solar cycle 24.

We have a brand new (but as of yet unnumbered by the SWPC) sunspot group and it has the magnetic polarity and latitude of a solar cycle 24 sunspot group. Hopefully unlike last weeks (S721 on April 8th) unnumbered sunspot, this one will be numbered by NOAA/SWPC.

At this point it is a lone small spot that will not impact the upper HF bands in a positive manner. However it is a continued step in the right direction for emerging solar cycle 24.

I borrowed the following information from the DXLC website at http://www.dxlc.com/solar/index.html .

.....At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC: [S722] This cycle 24 region developed small spots on April 13. Location at midnight: N27E30.....

We finally have a second solar cycle #24 sunspot group! It was numbered today by NOAA/SWPC as 10990 at N26E20. I never thought that I would see a day when such a tiny sunspot could be such a big deal!

As of Tuesday evening UTC 04/08/2008 it appears that we have a brand new (but as of yet unnumbered by the SWPC) sunspot group and it has the magnetic polarity and latitude of a solar cycle 24 sunspot group. At this point it is a lone small spot that will not impact the upper HF bands in a positive manner. However it is a step in the right direction for emerging solar cycle 24.

I borrowed the following information from the DXLC website at http://www.dxlc.com/solar/index.html .

.....Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC: [S721] This region emerged on April 7 in the southeast quadrant with a single, tiny spot. Location at midnight: S28E14.....

Unfortunately though the sunspot degenerated into a spotless Plage before NOAA/SWPC could get around to numbering it. As already mentioned above, it is a step in the right direction for emerging solar cycle 24.

Posted March 31, 2008:
As mentioned above on January 4, 2008 it was declared by the NOAA SWPC that solar cycle 24 had begun based on the first reversed polarity sunspot cycle group but that was just to end the suspense. We are not at that point yet. As of March 31, 2008 we have seen only eleven sunspot groups since January 1st. Of those eleven, seven are solar cycle 23 sunspot groups. By the way as of March 1, 2008 solar cycle 23 has now set a new record for the longest solar cycle in recorded history.

Therefore in my professional opinion though we have seen the beginning of solar cycle #24 on January 4, 2008, the bottom of solar cycle 23 is winning the battle at the moment. From an improved propagation point of view there is no difference between the bottom of solar cycle 23 and the beginning of solar cycle 24.

Posted March 1, 2008:
Courtesy of www.spaceweather.com on Friday January 4, 2008: SOLAR CYCLE 24:

.....Solar physicists have been waiting for the appearance of a reversed-polarity sunspot to signal the start of the next solar cycle. The wait is over. A magnetically reversed, high-latitude sunspot emerged today: image. If you have a solar telescope, take a look at this important new active region. It marks the beginning of Solar Cycle 24 and the sun's slow ascent back to Solar Maximum.....

Unfortunately there is no official definition as to when a new sunspot cycle begins. It is generally accepted that when the number of solar cycle 24 sunspot group numbers surpass the number of solar cycle 23 sunspot group numbers solar cycle 24 will be underway. This will probably not occur for a
few more months or so.

It's easier to look back and declare that a solar cycle is already underway then to predict when it will begin. As of this moment we still can't point to the month that the lowest smoothed sunspot number occurred, to be able to point to the arrival of the bottom of solar cycle 23, however October 2007 looks like a good candidate.

NOAA/SWPC predicted that solar cycle 24 would begin in January 2007, which did not occur. Their next prediction was for March 2007, which did not occur. Their latest prediction is now for February 2008.

The SWPC currently has two forecasts out for solar cycle 24. Forecast #1 calls for a sunspot number peak of 140 in October 2011. Forecast #2 calls for a sunspot number peak of 90 in August 2012.

I predict a solar cycle 24 peak at a (SSN) smoothed sunspot number of 105 in October 2012 and of course I hope that my forecast is incorrect. If correct solar cycle 24 would be smaller than the previous three. If correct solar cycle 24 will be smaller than the previous three and make for grim DXing on the
higher HF bands and a cooling of the global climate.

I base my prediction of a smaller and later peak of solar cycle 24 peak (smoothed sunspot number of 105 in 2012) on the slowing of the internal meridional circulation of the Sun and related weaker than normal magnetic field line packing at the poles of the Sun.

Normally the internal meridional circulation (kind of like a conveyor belt) moves at approximately 1 meter per second. In the past ten years the circulation has slowed to approximately .75 meters per second in the north and .35 meters per second in the south, the slowest since the 1800s.

Anecdotal evidence is pointing towards another Dalton Minimum. A Dalton Minimum is a miniature version of the infamous Maunder Minimum, where the number of sunspot groups drop to a below normal level and corresponding total energy output of the Sun also drops. This would bring on a mini mini ice age for a period of 30-50 years.

Posted on January 1, 2008:
Anecdotal evidence points to solar cycle 23 minimum in October 2007 with a monthly International Sunspot Index (ISSI) number of 0.9. The lowest daily solar flux reading since July 1996 of 64.4 occurred on September 28, 2007. The lowest maximum daily Solar Flux Index (SFI) reading since October 1996 of 71 occurred on September 01, 2007.

However a brand new Coronal Hole #299 formed on 11/14/2007, then #301 on 11/24/2007 and #302 on 11/30/2007. We have also seen new sunspot group activity on November 6, 2007, November 13, 2007, between November 24-26, 2007 and December 01-07, 2007. All of these recent sunspot groups carry a solar cycle 23 magnetic polarity.

This put�s in doubt the anecdotal evidence that solar cycle #23 bottomed out in October 2007. However we will have to see what the Smoothed Sunspot Number (SSN) is for September and October 2007.

Some good news for pending solar cycle 24 beginning is a new mid latitude Plage that rose above the eastern horizon of the Sun on Wednesday December 12, 2007. It has a magnetic polarity of a solar cycle 24 sunspot group. Often times a Plage is a fore runner of an emerging sunspot group. Check out the following NASA site about it. Is A New Solar Cycle Beginning?

Posted on January 1, 2002:
Initially NOAA/SWPC predicted solar cycle 23 to peak in August 2000, then updated the prediction to a peak between December 2000 and March 2001.

The peak as measured by the daily Solar Flux Index (SFI) occurred in December 2001 at 235. The peak as measured by the monthly (ISSI) International Sunspot Index number occurred in July 2000 at 170.